Ten myths about scenario planning – and ten times the answer is “No!”

When I talk about scenario planning with decision-makers, everyone instinctively understands (and wants) the benefits. ?Yet hesitations still arise, often thanks to misconceptions about what’s involved. Allow me to do a little mythbusting.

Myth No. 1: Scenario planning is mainly for large corporations or government agencies.

No! ?Scenario planning is a valuable method for organizations of all sizes to visualize their future strategic terrain. It can help small businesses and non-profits anticipate and plan for potential futures, just as it can provide valuable insights to large corporations and public-sector institutions.?I myself have conducted scenario development workshops for a Fortune 50 company as well as a 2-person start-up; for a globally active NGO and a charitable organization operating in one country, with a staff of 20.?All four exercises generated eye-opening possibilities for the respective organization.

Myth No. 2: Scenario planning is too complex and time-consuming.

No! ?Scenario planning can be very simple and straightforward – but it’s true, if an organization needs to foresee future scenarios in more depth, this will probably involve more time. In any case, the process can always be tailored to the organization's specific needs and resources. In all 4 of the examples I mentioned just above, the workshop was over in a day. Instead of an actual workshop, a training session is also a possibility, allowing you to learn how to effectively implement scenario planning on your own, at your own pace.

Myth No. 3: Scenario planning isn’t reliable, because no one can predict the future.

No! ?Here, the premise is misleading, because scenario planning is not about predicting the future, but rather about preparing for a range of possible futures. The goal is to anticipate potential future developments and plan for how to respond to them, rather than trying to predict which specific events will happen or how trends will evolve.

Myth No. 4: Scenario planning requires experts or futurists.

No! ?Scenario planning can be conducted by anyone within an organization. It’s a collaborative process that ideally involves input from people in different departments and levels of the organization. This is important, because having a diverse group of people involved in the scenario planning process ensures that a range of perspectives and experiences are considered.

Myth No. 5: Scenario planning is only for long-term planning.?

No! ?Even though scenario planning is most often used to visualize how the landscape will look several years in the future, it is just as effective for shorter-term planning, as uncertainties and future events can easily have both short-term and long-term implications. The pandemic is a good example: In 2021, when we started to see light at the end of the tunnel, most organizations were keen to understand how the immediate post-pandemic world would shape up for them.?That meant looking one or two years into the future, not ten.

Myth No. 6: Scenario planning is only valuable if you’re facing big uncertainties and complex situations.

No! ?Even if you believe your business is simple and you can foresee your future operating terrain with relative certainty, scenario planning can still help you.?It can prepare you for potential disruptions, for example, or allow you to wargame the competition.?In a “Kill Your Company” workshop, even the most stable organization operating in the most stable environment can learn valuable lessons about its vulnerabilities and risks – and the dangers of being unprepared for them.

Myth No. 7: Scenario planning is only good for crisis management.

No! ?Scenario planning can be used for a variety of purposes, including crisis management, but its main purpose is to give you insights that can improve your strategic planning, risk management, and decision-making. It can help you identify potential opportunities and challenges, and develop plans to take advantage of these chances and mitigate – or even avoid – risks.

Myth No. 8: Scenario planning is a one-time exercise.

No! ?Since the future is constantly changing, scenario planning should ideally be an ongoing process, allowing you to adapt and adjust your strategies accordingly. Regularly reviewing and updating scenarios can be essential to staying prepared for potential shifts and developments.

Myth No. 9: ?Scenario planning only focuses on negative events.

No! ?Scenario planning posits both negative and positive outcomes. It's important to consider a range of realistic futures, including scenarios that would be beneficial to the organization as well as more challenging ones.?In the positive scenarios generated in the process, you can even make provisional plans about how to exploit their opportunities, such as deciding on the optimal timing of your response and identifying the resources you would need to take advantage of their favorable conditions.?Scenario planning is about much more than spotting future problems!

Myth No. 10: Scenario planning is expensive.

No! ?The cost of scenario planning can vary depending on the time and expertise required. But it can be done with minimal costs. What's important is to consider the potential benefits and savings that can result from being better prepared for different ways your future could potentially develop.?It’s a worthwhile investment, especially since one of its key benefits is that it gets you and your team thinking together about the future… and about your future resilience.