Ten insights from Quantum Australia 2024

This week 600+ delegates from across Australia and the world met in Sydney for Quantum Australia, the nation’s foremost quantum industry event.

Event attendees included Innovation Minister Hon Ed Husic MP, Australia’s Chief Scientist Cathy Foley, and Sir Peter Knight, Chair of the UK Quantum Technology Program Advisory Board.

A packed three-day schedule left my brain buzzing with conversations and content. In an attempt to synthetise some key themes, I wrote up some notes on the plane ride back to Perth.

(Note RE post length, I am channelling Mark Twain here who famously said “I didn't have time to write a short letter, so I wrote a long one instead”.)

1. Fundamental science is fuelling a pipeline of breakthrough industry R&D

What happens when we support smart people to ask big questions and take big risks in the lab? They make incredibly useful discoveries that result in step-changes in industry productivity. Sir Phillip Knight (UK Quantum Program) argued that “investing in emerging technology allows the economy to grow”. He noted that if you stop investing in the science, in 10~ years or so the pipeline of new technology would run dry. Likewise, Cathy Foley emphasised the importance of a “science first” approach to drive disruptive innovation. Andrew Seedhouse (DST, Department of Defence) recognised the importance of ARC Centres of Excellence to the Australian economy, noting how funding research of a significant scale results in massive acceleration of industry R&D. Knight noted that investing in the UK ecosystem has paid off with “companies like Toshiba now moving to UK to take advantage of the ecosystem.”

2. Don’t build a quantum company. Build a company that solves a problem.

Kerrie Jackson (Head of Business Development at Nomad Atomics) stated “We are not a quantum company.” Nomad Atomics builds sensors that help organisations make better decisions. For quantum sensing in particular, she noted, “the way you design and deploy the solution is specific to customer need and the environment within which you are deploying. You need to develop the customer at the same time as the tech”. Joseph Emmerson (Director Quantum Strategy, Keysight Technologies Inc) also emphasised the importance of avoiding hype and focusing on the customer's problem rather than your solution. “Someone might say that they solved a problem with a quantum computer. Who cares? I can solve a maths problem with an abacus. Are the methods you used scalable? Are you comparing your solution with the best classical methods?”. Andre Luiten (Managing Director QuantX) challenged us to replace the word “quantum” with “useful” to reframe the conversation.

3. It’s never too early to talk to customers.

Jackson (Nomad Atomics) challenged researchers to work creatively with industry to demonstrate the value and build the technology alongside them, noting “the early customers are critical.” “The only way you can do that is to understand the customer and immerse yourselves in their world. Who are you working with and what matters to them? Go back to the lab and design the sensors for those environments and those jobs.” Andre Luiten (QuantX) noted that the value of your quantum solution might not be where you think it is. His team designed a sensor to track large moving metal objects underground (for example, trains). In this case the value add of his quantum solution was not the exquisite sensitivity of his sensor (the signal was very strong) but the accuracy of the result (there was a lot of signal noise). The best partnerships are those in which risk and rewards are shared. We don’t have a high-risk tolerance in Australia and it can be hard to convince industry to co-invest. Do we need additional investment to encourage industry to engage?

4. Translating research is a job that needs to be resourced and supported.

Avoid the “magical thinking” that this work will happen somehow if you don’t resource it. According to Halina Rubinsztein-Dunlop (Director of EQUS Translational Research Program) “the biggest blocker to research translation is staffing”. The solution is simple. Support researchers with funding and advice to explore and validate industry use cases, and build prototypes. UK has built a vibrant ecosystem of quantum startups by supporting researchers to do just this. This is already happening in Australia. The EQUS Translational Research Program has a stunning track record of success. ( Key features = Low barrier to entry, all eligible projects funded, responsive and ready when you are, fast fail). This also helps support diversity (by avoiding bias about who or what is "investable" at a really early stage). Andre Luiten (whose privately owned Quantum venture is growing 50% year on year) outlined a vision where talented people were supported to take a risk and try to make something happen. Cathy Foley argued that we need to make it easier for researchers to try, fail, and come back into the University. All agreed it is futile to try and pick winners. So how then to increase the odds of success? Simply increase the number of researchers giving it a go. And reduce the friction involved in getting their ideas out of the university (standard deal terms etc).

5. You probably need a proof of concept. Think creatively to make your idea real.

Founders and investors including Bill Bartee (Partner, Main Sequence Ventures) stressed the importance of a proof of concept to de-risk your innovation and earn the trust of investors and industry. If you don’t have a prototype, have a clear plan to get there. Emily Hilder (Head of the Advanced Strategic Capabilities Accelerator ASCA) noted that everyone asks her what TRL (Technology Readiness Level) she is looking for. She admitted “I don’t care about TRL… I want to know where you are now, where you want to be, and how quickly you can get there”. Speakers emphasised the importance of “letting people play with the technology” noting “customers will work out what to do with it.” Many universities including UWA have proof of concept funding. Increasingly ARC Centres of Excellence are including allocations in their budgets. And of course, Australian Economic Accelerator seed funding.

6. Finding use cases is the key to unlocking value. But the biggest blocker is communication.

In this moment, one of the most powerful things we can do to drive the sector forward is to identify great industry use cases. This takes time and it’s not something anyone can do alone. Panellists agreed “The biggest challenge is communication”. Peter Wiseman noted that ”dumbing it down misses the point”. There are multiple levels and different audiences. One way to do this is to simply bring people with diverse backgrounds together to discuss opportunities at a high level. For example, the “Quantum Meets…” workshop series initiated by Australia's Chief Scientist, Dr Cathy Foley. The first workshop “Quantum Meets Sport” brought a diverse group of 70 people together to explore problems including logistics, recovery and injury prevention, concussion. It led to a range of outcomes such as the Queensland Government committing $5 million to have quantum in the Olympic and Paralympic Games. (They even designed a Q-bit mascot!). A few weeks ago they ran “Quantum Meets Resources” with the Minerals Council of Australia. The outcomes will be written up and shared soon.

7. Government funding plays a critical role. But private sector investment will drive the sector.

Governments will play a vital role in creating demand and increasing the size of the market, especially at this early stage. According to Phillip Knight, the trick for governments is to “know where you will make an impact and where you won’t”. According to Cathy Foley, Australian private sector investment in quantum is growing 22% year on year. Knight noted UK industry are investing three times as much as government: “The quantum ecosystem will not be built on government money. Government money is a drop in the ocean.” It is no good having a strategy if you don’t appropriately resource the delivery of that strategy. Knight noted that “we waited to launch UK Quantum Strategy until we had money to fund it”. Emily Hilder (ACSA) stated “we don’t start a Mission unless we have an endorsed pathway for acquisition”. Similarly Nadia Court (S3S) advised “If you are going to invest in infrastructure you can’t just invest in infrastructure.” You also need funding to incentivise industry to try out this technology. The value capture from being an early adopter is massive. But risk is also high. How can we work with industry to share risk and rewards? We know patient capital has not been a strength in Australia. We also know our industry tends to be risk adverse. Incentivising and upskilling are key areas to explore.

8. Find your niche. Identify high value, low volume markets where you can play and win.

Nations make strategic choices about the infrastructure they want to invest in. Right now, UK is a world leader in high frequency radar. They invested in this and became the best, recognising “ we can only do that for a few things”. There are always opportunity costs. Dieter Kranzlmuller (Leibniz Supercomputing Centre) noted “in Germany we gave up the production of solar panels”. Mark Stickells (Pawsey Supercomputing Centre) noted that “Australia used to build computers…CSIRO scientists built the fourth computer in the world in the 1940s.” Nadia Court (Director of the Semiconductor Sector Service Bureau S3B) explained that when it comes to advanced manufacturing (such as semi-conductors) no single country has the whole supply chain. “We will never have the whole supply chain (for semiconductors) here in Australia. But we have a lot of IP. If we can take that research investment and get it out, that will have a big impact. Not all of these innovations need a $20M Fab (a factory that “fabricates” advanced electronic products). We do have some of that supply chain here.”

Given the importance of creating proof of concept devices when validating a product, the ability to create a small run/small batch is invaluable. Jane Fitzpatrick (CEO, Australian National Fabrication Facility ANFF) emphasised how Australia’s National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (NCRIS) is unique in the world. “Other nations are amazed…there is nothing like it… it has allowed Australia to set a standard in how to do national infrastructure.” Hugh Durrant-Whyte (NSW Chief Scientist) recognised that “Australia companies would not happen in the nation did not invest in infrastructure.” He challenged the room: “We can get to 100 person quantum company. Can we get to 1000-person quantum company?” Supply chain issues are rampant across the industry. (For example, a small production run getting bumped in favour of a large order.) Take charge of your supply chain, look at resourcing creative ways to secure sovereign capability. This might include keep your options open and looking for alternative materials and suppliers.

9. You are not alone. Leverage global partnerships.

The unprecedented capabilities of quantum devices, and their ability to help nations create or avoid strategic surprise makes it sensitive. Roger McKinlay (Challenge Director, Quantum, UK Research and Innovation) argued global partnerships such as AUKUS and the QUAD can lift us above a singular country approach and get technology into people’s hands faster than if we were working by ourselves. Here the government takes an active and aggressive role in being an early adopter. UK and USA can become part of our domestic market. The are currently two AUKUS working groups working to optimise innovation and information sharing to encourage the free flow of ideas and ability of nations to sell to each other. The result should be a better integrated supply chain with clearer roles and responsibilities. Leaders from USA, UK and Australia are thinking about how to connect a huge network of different agencies to define how information might be shared at every level of classification. Sometimes these conversations can feel abstract. How can an individual company benefit? What is the mechanism? Emily Hilder (ASCA) gave a good example of what this could look like in practice. The ASCA team plan to link with AUKUS nations to run challenges and programs at the same time to encourage collaboration and knowledge sharing. (Speakers noted there are also plenty of opportunities to collaborate globally outside of AUKUS.)

10. Beware of quantum bullshit*. Embrace specificity. Build trust.

Expectation management is vital to build trust with industry. Researchers are well placed to deliver here. Deiter Kranzlmuller (LRZ) cautioned claims that quantum can solve all problems, for example, the idea that “the super computer is an instrument but a quantum computer is the whole orchestra.” Kranzlmuller argued these kind of statements “sound good” but are “nonsense”. The truth is, quantum computers have huge potential. But there will be focus areas, and we don’t yet know how big those focus areas will be.

*Shout out to Chris Ferrie whose book Quantum Bullsht How to Ruin Your Life with Advice from Quantum Physics is a genuinely educational (and very funny) read. No physics degree required. Ferrie attended the conference to launch an extremely cool quantum device to inspire a new generation of Australians to learn to design quantum software.