Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2025
Donald Trump’s return to the White House?adds unpredictability to an already volatile world. As global tensions rise, change looms, whether through deals or by force of arms.
// On Our Radar
Afghanistan
The Taliban-led economy ministry told NGOs last week that if they continue to employ Afghan women, the de facto authorities will revoke their licences and suspend their operations. The warning, coming weeks after another decree that barred women from getting medical training, suggests an impending crackdown on NGOs, including those delivering life-saving aid. Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss says these decisions put humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan at risk, as donors recoil at the tightening restrictions on women’s rights. Needs might soon be increasing, moreover, due to disputes with Pakistan over insurgent activity along the border, which could lead Islamabad to deport Afghan refugees, as it has done in the past. The Taliban should let humanitarian NGOs carry out their mission unfettered.
Syria
The caretaker government faced backlash last week after its education ministry floated curriculum changes that were widely perceived as imposing a conservative Islamist slant on teaching, raising concerns about the trajectory of governance. The criticism prompted the acting education minister to say curricula would largely remain unaltered pending review by specialist committees. The main amendments for the time being, the minister added, will pertain to removing symbols glorifying the Assad regime, adopting the new revolutionary flag and adjusting Islamic education courses. To avoid inflaming tensions that could endanger the post-Assad transition, says Crisis Group expert Dareen Khalifa , the new leaders should maintain a hands-off approach to education. Any divisive decision could be seen as undermining their pledge to safeguard Syria’s social and cultural diversity.
United States
A pickup truck plowed into New Year’s revelers in New Orleans, Louisiana early Wednesday morning, killing fourteen and injuring many more. The driver, a U.S. army veteran, wounded two police officers before being killed himself in a subsequent shootout. Authorities disabled several improvised explosive devices both inside the truck and in the immediate vicinity. President Joe Biden said the attacker appears to have been “inspired by ISIS” (an ISIS flag was also found inside the truck). In Las Vegas, Nevada, another truck laden with fuel canisters and firework mortars blew up outside the Trump International Hotel Wednesday, killing the driver (a serving U.S. soldier) and injuring seven bystanders. It so far appears the two incidents are unrelated. It is critical, says Crisis Group expert Michael Wahid Hanna, that U.S. politicians allow the investigations to proceed without speculating or instigating panic. The decades-long war on terror shows the pitfalls of leveraging public unease for political ends.
You can find previous editions of On Our Radar here.
// Publications
Don’t Repeat in Syria the Mistakes of Afghanistan
By Delaney Simon, Crisis Group’s?Senior Analyst for the?U.S. Program, Graeme Smith,?Senior Analyst for?Afghanistan and?Jerome Drevon,?Senior Analyst in Jihad and Modern Conflict.
领英推荐
Originally published in Foreign Affairs.
// Podcasts
Humanitarian Diplomacy: Negotiating Aid Access in a Turbulent World
In this episode of The Horn,?Elissa Jobson speaks with Kwesi Sansculotte-Greenidge, former Senior Conflict and Access Advisor at the WFP, and Abdalla Hussein, operational manager at MSF, about humanitarian diplomacy and the challenges aid organisations face in reaching civilians in conflict-afflicted areas.
In partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.
Click here to listen on?Apple Podcasts?or?Spotify.
// Videos
Sudan: A Call for Global Action
Sudan's crisis is being ignored by the world despite over 150,000 deaths and 12 million displaced. In this video, Crisis Group's Trustee Mo Ibrahim highlights the urgent need for global action and a ceasefire to stop the suffering and prevent further lawlessness.
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Senior Lecturer in Policing with specialty in Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism
1 个月Almost no continent has been left unscathed by troubling political upheaval over the past year. ICG has identified 10 key conflicts and all of them are of significant concern for a variety of reasons. I'm keeping an eye on these and hoping that the worst case scenario doesn't come to pass. - Syria - Sudan - Ukraine and European Security - Israel-Palestine - Iran vs. U.S. and Israel - Haiti - U.S.-Mexico - Myanmar - Korean Peninsula - China-U.S.