Tellurian Upstream Sale: On to Greener Pastures

Dear Subscriber,

In this week newsletter, we bring you our latest blog post "Tellurian Upstream Sale: On to Greener Pastures" where Brandon Myers explores Aethon's acquisition of Tellurian’s upstream assets and what this means for both companies.

We are back with the Weekly Workflow! In this episode, Scott Iceton goes through pad designs, spacing, and gunbarrels and how they differ from basin to basin.

Next week, join us for Novi Midland Connect, where we have an exciting agenda packed with talks! One standout session will be led by Brandon Myers, Novi's Head of Research. He'll delve into "Permian Inventory Benchmarking," exploring inventory life, breakevens, and changes in rock quality. If you haven't already, make sure to get your ticket here: https://novilabs.com/novi-midland-connect-2024/

We're also thrilled to share abstracts of two papers we'll be presenting at URTeC. These papers are among the six we have at URTeC this year: "Machine Learning vs. Type Curves in the Appalachian Basin: A Comparative Study" and "Analyzing Midland Basin Well Performance and Future Outlook with Machine Learning"

Continuing our theme from previous newsletters, our VP of Product Management, Ted Cross, presents two must-reads: "Secondary Zones in the Delaware" and "The Unexpected Driver of U.S. Gas Production Growth"

[Blog] Tellurian Upstream Sale: On to Greener Pastures

Unpacking Tellurian's upstream sale: what led to the decision and what's next?

Explore our breakdown of Aethon’s $260MM purchase of Tellurian’s upstream assets.

Find out how this move impacts both companies and what it signifies for the broader market.

[Weekly Workflow] Understanding Well Spacing Trends

Join Scott Iceton as he breaks down the latest well spacing trends and how they differ from basin to basin. Discover where some of the most dense developments are taking place and its timeline.

[Event] Novi Midland Connect 2024

Join us in Midland on June 6th for a unique gathering to talk about Permian inventory, hear from a top operator on forecasting practices, and get a demo of Novi's latest big release!

We’ve got a packed agenda! We want to spotlight Brandon Myers, Head of Research at Novi, who will talk about “Permian Inventory Benchmarking,” including inventory life, breakevens, and rock quality degradation.

Join us for an informative afternoon, where you can connect with others, gain insights, and enjoy some drinks!

RSVP today to secure your spot here

[Paper] Machine Learning vs. Type Curves in the Appalachian Basin: A Comparative Study

Ever wondered how machine learning stacks up against traditional type curve methods?

In this URTeC 2024 paper coauthored with Equinor; “Machine Learning vs. Type Curves: A Comparative Study,” we get into the accuracy and efficiency of machine learning models compared to traditional type curve methodologies.

Join us for the URTeC technical presentation on Tuesday, June 18th, 2024, as part of Theme 9: A Future of Production Forecasting: Data-Driven Models and Physics-Based Solutions II

Can’t make it to the presentation? Sign up for the waiting list to access the paper post-event here.

Secondary Zones in the Delaware

Recently we looked at the Midland Basin, where "Secondary Targets" like the Jo Mill and Wolfcamp D have driven substantial production growth over the last few years. So how are things going on the other side of the Permian Basin in the Delaware?

The Delaware Basin is much more dominated by a single zone, the Wolfcamp A, compared with the Midland Basin. The Wolfcamp A produces over 1.1 million barrels a day in the Delaware, and that's not even counting the Wolfcamp A (XY) sands, which would add another ~400k bbl/d. Other zones like the 2nd Bone Spring, Wolfcamp B, and 3rd Bone Spring produce over 200k bbl/d, but they're lower producers than the Lower Spraberry Shale and Midland Wolfcamp B.

So the Delaware ends up looking more like one huge target and a then a continuum of smaller targets. For the purposes of this analysis, I set the cutoff for "Secondary Targets" at 200k bbl/d, with the 3rd Bone Spring Lime falling just below.

With this framework, we do still see substantial growth from the Secondary Targets of 119% since January 2020, good for +243k bbl/d. On a percentage basis, this is higher than the Primary Targets, which added 18%. The absolute volume growth over that period from Primary Targets, though, is 390k bbl/d, impressive!

Now, the Delaware Basin has an even longer tail of zones that didn't make my chart but are adding volumes, especially if you consider targets getting up onto the shelf. So far, they haven't really moved the needle on total volumes, but they're worth keeping an eye on.

The key "Secondary Target" trend we are tracking closely is infill in the Delaware. Take Concho's Dominator unit, which originally featured 23 wells in the Wolfcamp and has since seen 12 Bone Spring wells put online in 2022 -- and they are monsters. Other units in the Delaware Core have seen similar results from uphole infill. We'll be covering this important trend more soon.

[Paper] Analyzing Midland Basin Well Performance and Future Outlook with Machine Learning

What does the future look like for the Midland Basin?

Explore our URTeC technical presentation on Tuesday, June 18th, 2024 "Analyzing Midland Basin Well Performance and Future Outlook with Machine Learning", as part of Theme 3: Geological Drivers Behind Stimulated and Drainage Rock Volume: Observations, Lessons Learned, and Strategies for Assessment

We will analyze remaining inventories, performance trends, and breakevens across the basin.

Can’t make it to the presentation? Sign up for the waiting list to access the paper post-event here.

The Unexpected Driver of U.S. Gas Production Growth

What's driving gas production growth in the US? Hint: it's not the gas plays

Since 2021, the biggest increase in gas production has come from the PERMIAN, adding over 4 BCF/d. Appalachia is almost unchanged, and the Haynesville has added a cool 2.5 BCF/d

It's worth taking a moment to contemplate the sheer scale of gas production coming out of the Permian. If it were its own country, the Permian would rank ahead of Qatar, Australia, and Canada in daily production rates.

With oil prices rising again, the Permian gas giant shows no signs of slowing down. Because of increasing GORs through time for individual wells, the basin will naturally be gassier later in its life. Permian operators have also been exploring deeper, gassier zones like the Wolfcamp C, D, and Woodford. There's probably a long tail of gassier zones left to drill in the greater Permian area (anybody remember Alpine High?).

Including verticals, the Permian broke through 20 BCF/d back in April. Even though the gas growth is driven by oil prices, it's worth celebrating the tremendous buildout of pipelines to get this gas to market. And with more Gulf Coast LNG coming online over the next few years, the Permian bonanza has global ramifications.

[Event] Get Your Free URTeC T-Shirt!

Our iconic Novi T-shirts are making a comeback! But the quantity is limited!

Sign up now to claim yours! Stop by our booth #400, and we'll have your shirt waiting just for you.

Also, we're giving out free URTeC passes. Need one? Reach out to our team!

Ready to see what’s under the hood and how Novi Labs can help you get valuable insights?

Book your personalized demo with our team: https://novilabs.com/request-for-demo/