Tehran and Baku: Shifting Dynamics in the South Caucasus Amid Regional Tensions

The South Caucasus region has long been a crossroads of geopolitical interests, with Iran and Azerbaijan playing crucial roles in shaping regional dynamics. Recent events, including the mysterious death of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi and subsequent political developments, have added new layers of complexity to an already intricate geopolitical landscape.

The reported helicopter crash that claimed the lives of President Raisi and other high-ranking Iranian officials in May 2024 sent shockwaves through the region. While official reports cited overloading as the cause, questions linger about the true circumstances of the incident. The subsequent election of Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist candidate, as Iran's new president has the potential to shift Tehran's approach to regional affairs.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has been actively maneuvering to strengthen its position. President Putin's recent two-day visit to Baku, followed by Azerbaijan's application to join BRICS, signals the country's efforts to diversify its international partnerships. Azerbaijan's strategic location between Russia, Iran, and Turkey makes it a key player in regional geopolitics.

The high-profile visit of Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu to Azerbaijan via Iran just before Putin's arrival has sparked speculation about Russia's concerns regarding potential regional conflicts. Some experts suggest that Russia may be wary of Azerbaijan's covert support for Israel in the event of an Iran-Israel conflict, especially in light of the recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

These developments occur against a backdrop of long-standing tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan. Despite shared cultural and religious ties, the two nations have often found themselves at odds over issues such as Azerbaijan's close relationship with Israel and disputes over the Caspian Sea.

The change in Iran's leadership could potentially lead to a recalibration of Tehran's regional strategy. President Pezeshkian, with his background in reform-oriented politics, may seek to ease tensions with neighboring countries. However, the influence of Iran's Revolutionary Guards and conservative elements within the government could limit significant policy shifts.

For Azerbaijan, balancing its relationships with regional powers remains a delicate task. While seeking closer ties with Russia and potentially BRICS, Baku must also navigate its relationships with Turkey, a close ally, and Israel, an important strategic partner.

The recent geopolitical maneuvers in the region highlight the complex web of alliances and rivalries that define the South Caucasus. As Iran potentially adjusts its foreign policy under new leadership and Azerbaijan continues to assert its strategic importance, the balance of power in the region remains in flux.

Both Tehran and Baku will likely continue to play significant roles in shaping regional dynamics. However, the full impact of recent events, including the change in Iran's leadership and Azerbaijan's diplomatic initiatives, remains to be seen. As always in this strategically vital region, developments will be closely watched by regional powers and the international community alike.

Alex Klisevits

CEO & Tactical Team Leader at Iron Navy