Tectonic EV shifts

Issue #233, Jan 12, 2024

Electrification of mobility is a major transformation happening today. Within that, there are tectonic shifts. The Chinese domination is one example, with BYD overtaking Tesla in electric vehicle (EV) sales volume in the last quarter in 2023. The Chinese domination is not just in EVs but in systems such as the LiDAR too, reaching half the market share. Hertz decided to sell its fleet of EVs, due to high expenses in handling collissions and damages! Driverless cars are exempt from traffic tickets in San Fancisco. Japanese auto leaders are betting on trucks to push the fuel-cell hydrogen economy. Manganese gets attention as an alternative for cobalt and nickel in lithium-ion batteries, from diverse sources in South Africa. Below are some tectonic shifts happening in the EV world.

The Chinese EV domination

The Chinese auto industry claimed to have exported over 5m cars in 2023, exceeding the Japanese total. China’s biggest carmaker, BYD, sold 0.5m EVs in the fourth quarter, leaving Tesla in the dust. Chinese EVs are so snazzy, whizzy and—most important—cheap that the constraint on their export today is the scarcity of vessels for shipping them. As the world decarbonises, demand will rise further. By 2030 China could double its share of the global market, to a third, ending the dominance of the West’s champions, especially in Europe. - The Economist

Hertz selling EV fleet

Rental firm Hertz is selling about 20,000 EVs, including Teslas, from its US fleet about two years after a deal with the automaker to offer its vehicles for rent, in another sign that EV demand has cooled. Hertz will instead opt for gas-powered vehicles, citing higher expenses related to collision and damage even though it had aimed to convert 25% of its fleet to electric by 2024 end. - Auto News, Reuters

LiDARs from China

Chinese companies are strengthening their presence in light detection and ranging sensors crucial to self-driving technology, greatly exceeding Japanese and American counterparts in related patents and controlling more than half of the global market. The intense competition in developing EVs in China has spurred more sophisticated lidar, which serve as the "eyes" for autonomous driving. - Nikkei Asia

Autonomous cars and SFO tickets

Since June 2022, autonomous vehicles have been permitted to operate without safety drivers in San Francisco as long as they are inside the city limits. Officers can issue citations to the registered owner of an unoccupied vehicle in absentia for non-moving violations such as parking or registration offenses but not violations like speeding, running a red light, driving in the wrong lane or making an illegal turn. “At this time, no citation for a moving violation can be issued if the AV is being operated in a driverless mode,” the SFPD said in a statement. - The Guardian

Fuel cells for trucks

Japanese automakers are betting on trucks to pave the way for hydrogen-powered cars, which have been slow to catch on despite much domestic expectation that the technology will help drive decarbonization. A heavy truck 12 meters long started taking test drives on Tokyo roads. Jointly developed by Honda Motor and Isuzu Motors, the truck is powered by fuel cells. - Nikkei Asia

Manganese in EV batteries

Manganese Metal Co. in South Africa, has been operating for decades but only recently drew a surge of interest from western auto manufacturers. The region is home to the largest refinery outside China of manganese used in EV batteries. Manganese Metal Co. is the largest of just a handful of refiners of battery-grade manganese located outside China. Used mostly for making steel, manganese is increasingly replacing more expensive and harder-to-source minerals such as cobalt and nickel in the lithium-ion batteries that power electric cars, laptops, and smartphones. - WSJ

Why every western automaker is visiting this remote part of South Africa