Technology, Warfare, and Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: IST’s Anniversary Assessment

One year ago today, Russian ground and air forces invaded Ukraine with the goal of annexing the country. In the year since, Russia and Ukraine have engaged in a conflict that has implications for cyber applications in military contexts, nuclear deterrence, crisis communications, and disinformation. Though this conflict, with its tank columns and artillery, may appear to be a throwback to twentieth century confrontations, it is also an incubator for the future of international conflict. The technology tools Russia and Ukraine are using in combat today–and the very different ways in which the two countries are using them–will shape patterns of coercion across the spectrum of diplomacy and conflict tomorrow and beyond.

Prompted by the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion, the Institute for Security and Technology took stock of the major tech trends the war in Ukraine has revealed, accelerated, and even redirected. Among them:?

• The reach and impact of cyber tools in military contexts
• The relationship between traditional nuclear deterrence and “non-escalatory” technologies?
• The disruption of governments’ monopoly over drone deployments with plentiful, low-cost, commercial platforms?
• The resilience of savvy populations to disinformation tactics
• The cooperation between public and private sector actors?

Across these trends, a common theme stands out: the skills of the user define the utility of the tool. The Ukrainian government, with help from its partners, is simply better at using modern technologies than Moscow. The savvy uses of these tools have allowed Ukraine (and its Western sponsors) to circumvent Russia’s nuclear deterrent. They have mounted cyber defenses and adapted commercial drones to the contemporary battlefield. Meanwhile, for all its pre-war talk about its military build-up and the specter of its cyber prowess, Russia’s own efforts have stalled or fizzled outright. Merely having high tech tools is not enough if a combatant doesn’t use them well.

As we approach the one-year anniversary of the conflict, we sat down with a few of IST’s cyber and nuclear specialists and asked them to reflect on these trends and what they might mean for the future. The major lesson the ISTeam is taking away from the conflict so far? Don’t overdetermine tech trends on the basis of a single case. As the discussion of cyber tools shows, the match between Russia and Ukraine is not necessarily a good proxy for peer competition. Different conflicts will involve different combatants with another range of strengths, weaknesses, and friends. Western observers in particular should take care when applying lessons from this war elsewhere.

Read more from Alice Friend , Elizabeth Posegate Vish , Megan S. , Sylvia Mishra , Philip Reiner , Sophia Mauro , and Sage Miller in our NatSpecs blog.