Technology shift and social justice

“Work spares a man from three great evils ; boredom, vice and need” Voltaire , the great French writer said. And he is so true too. Human beings are known to have created the unimaginable over the last many centuries that has eased work and made life simpler.

Technology has improved multi fold over time specially in the last 60 years, while human beings have not intrinsically changed for the last many thousand years. I am not saying that humans have not built the incredible things , they have invented light bulbs, automobiles, electricity and more recently artificial intelligence. But we have done it on the back of collective intelligence. Human intelligence, strength or agility has not budged much if we view it individually. If we pick a man from the past and transport him / her to present we would be surprised at the practically near zero change.

What machines can achieve , humans cannot. Humans cannot reach limitless possibilities, but machines can. I will take you back to the industrial revolution where modern machines only helped humans increase output. If you were to leave it to humans perhaps, we would not have seen the scale that we see today. However, Introduction of machines introduced time-motion study of humans because the potential of machines was just beginning to expose human inefficiencies.

But are these machines really our friends ? Are they somehow robbing us of our right to live?and prosper ? Or should we just say that these technology revolutions have added unlimited value to our lives and so we should just let all other downside to be a collateral damage??

There are contrasting views and many economists have viewed that technological innovation can have serious impacts on labor. There are conferences around the globe where the ethics of protecting workers from rapid technology shifts are discussed threadbare. On the other hand these innovations have catapulted our lives to greater heights, something that I could not foresee when I was growing up in the 1970 or 1980. A square inch of electronic plate can now solve complex problems in a matter of few seconds, we have maps on our phones and do not need to know directions anymore, we have knowledge at our beck and call, we can learn without leaving our couch and we can switch on or off our cars from the comfort of our bedroom.?I would probably say from where I saw it all coming in 1980, we have had a billion times increase in productivity.

While there is a plethora of?upside to talk about ,?as humans I think rapid technology shift has had these downsides for humans

1.??????Our cognition capabilities are going down as we have everything available to us with a swipe of our fingers

2.??????Cycle of fear is increasing as we are now exposed to more uncertainties around us

3.??????Relationships are only about quick messaging services and does not have the heart and soul to nurture and grow it

4.??????Explosion of data around us has made our lives an open-book and we are no better than a commodity

I want you to pause and think about the explosion that is happening around us and it’s impact on us both economically and societally. More from a neo-liberal economy which is driven by free markets and that supply, and demand define prices, there are no concept of welfare regimes, labor has also become a component of free market.?When we introduce new technologies in a free market it drastically improves supply with an assumption that demand will pick up and therefore there will be a price equilibrium. More for less ! You cannot argue with this premise since we have seen this trend for 100 years now and are very happy with the way this governs the market and output.

Now look at the flip side. Let’s say we have driver less trucks that can carry tons of food grains from one corner of the country to another. We would immediately see a loss of jobs for truck drivers. Let aside truck drivers , those poor loaders would also lose their jobs. If you were to draw up a graph for the country, and its GDP, ?you will imagine “return on capital” will move northwards while “return on labor” will move southwards. This will push more middle-class people to move down the value chain , probably end up in the poverty class while the top 10% rich will become wealthier.?The strains are in front of us as we see, top 10% wealthy controlling the world economy while the bottom 60% are fast moving down towards the poverty trench. Of course, there are many more factors that influence that , monetary, fiscal et al and I do not want this to sound like a socialist rant but I am sure you will agree that technology can replace mundane jobs which today has people manning it. A simple example of a warehouse where automated forklifts can do the assembling, binning, picking and packing of products to be sent to the retail stores which had men doing it, thus far. While it makes sense as the businesses will grow , there will be lesser errors , speed of operations will improve, and the machines will work round the clock tirelessly.?In comparison the men would have taken much longer, would have needed breaks , perhaps work 12 hours a day at best and maybe make a few mistakes as well. This is all good news as machines can replace intervention?and help humans do something that is worthwhile it still does not resolve the quandary that 50% of those workers will now have to deskill themselves. Funny thing is that, we as business leaders loosely use this word called “reskilling” , do not really know what new jobs can get created for these hapless workers to fit in. Even if we do come up with great ideas not all of them will fit in , will they ? So , what happens to the unfortunate workers who did not get the new skill ?

Here again I do not want to sound a socialist ! Let’s now look at how technology did help the world redistribute its surplus to the effect that consumers gained more than the producers. Flashback to 18th or 19th century when farmers were tilling their land for rice or wheat. A landlord would employ 300 men to till his vast 5-acre land to produce 1000 kilos of rice. By the turn of century , tractors were doing that job at 1/10th of the cost, time and people. This definitely reduced the cost of produce, ?which by economic principles of free market increased consumption at a much lower cost. Therefore, we saw a redistribution of surplus equitably across the strata of the society. If you imagine Amazon or eBay selling , shipping products to your homes at a zero delivery charges, it is not that delivery is free or cheaper than others ! It is just the deployment of superior supply chain technology that has enabled it to reduce its overall cost, enabling it to deliver free of cost. Again , redistribution of surplus across all segments of the economy.

What are humans great at ? Humans are great at idea generation, situation analysis, quicker organization, storytelling ?and teamwork. Machines probably will struggle with this though I understand new age robots are mature to accomplish some of these tenets of teamwork and pattern recognition.

What are new age technologies good at ? Technologies do either of the following for humans. They complement human labor that is help workers do things faster?and better. But they cannot go the whole hog therefore there is no way that they can eliminate the human element. An example of this a simple word document where we can type and print without additional hassle of spell check or grammar.?This accentuates the return on capital as things get done better and faster. The second thing that they are good at is replacement of human labor, robots can fully replace human beings. A robotics process automation (RPA) may potentially replace an accountant by?doing bank reconciliation on its own. This potentially eliminates the job of the human. This is where the economic crisis takes root.

Now take the example of this person who was only doing bank reconciliation statements all his life. Let us assume he was semi-skilled and now is rendered job less. The return on labor now becomes zero (wages are zero)?leading to this person fending for food. His family slips into a depression, children probably dropping out of school. ?This person actually drops out of the economic cycle, eats into national wealth, has a troubled married life and becomes a burden for the economy. This is no more an economic crisis, but it leads to a societal crisis for the nation.

If AI has the potential to mimic human behavior and if at some point in time software can start to recognize patterns and make sense quickly who knows when they will replace all the deep knowledge that humans would have gathered over decades of university work. Take the example of a doctor or engineer who would have studied for years only to see that his expertise is replaceable. While it is true that a surgeon today cannot be replaced, it is clear that engineering getting replaced. With a 3D printing any design can get converted into a product, doesn’t need an engineer anymore. Social media influencers who are these days extremely visible on Internet and can earn up to a few million dollars a year by endorsing products are getting replaced by virtual influencers. Lil Miquel is an example and you can see her on Instagram influencing. So there goes the influencer job too !

If I?look back at the world today and I take myself back to my childhood days , it seems like a fantasy show, a science fiction, what with driverless cars and drones, variety of sensors and traceability.

What should we do if our jobs are replaced by BOTs and software ? How should we still string the societal fabric while battling the economic inequality that emerges due to this ? How should the top 10% remain where it is while ensuring the middle 30%?and bottom 60% do not slip further. In a neo-liberal economy, a state is a not a welfare state and it is expected that citizens take care of their own selves, Afterall it is a free market ! But with growing intervention of technologies perhaps, it is time that states start to think of “replacement subsidies” or “safety dole” because now it is no more about unemployment. These bottom 60% are probably unemployable in the new world and while educationists gear up for new skills development program these hapless people will need support not to slip into a societal catastrophe. We need policy makers to step up, eh !

Before I end , AI has the capability to learn through its journey. Imagine a day when the AI has learnt everything that is there to learn and has all of a sudden taken upon itself the mission to save the earth from further climatic disruption who do you think will it turn its weapons against ?

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