Technology Advances in Waves: Progress Through Back-and-Forth Movements

I have been following technological developments since the early 1980s — yes, even before the widespread adoption of PCs and the Internet. After virtually attending the Microsoft Ignite 2024 event in Chicago this week and observing the technology announcements, I was reminded of how technological progress often moves back and forth, with each shift bringing improvements and new opportunities.

In other words, sometimes a new and innovative technological advancement may closely resemble something from the past, or it might be the reintroduction of an old idea in a completely new way. Here are two examples to illustrate this point.

From Terminals to PCs and Back Again

Microsoft unveiled the new Windows 365 Link device, which functions as a terminal with all applications, including the operating system, hosted in the cloud. This architecture strongly resembles the pre-PC era of the 1980s, when terminals were used and all computing was done on mainframes. Thanks to modern cloud technology, this new device and service architecture offer much greater flexibility than traditional terminals.

The Windows 365 Link device has no local data, local apps, or admin-less users, and corporate data will stay protected within the cloud. Only tasks requiring exceptionally smooth user experiences, such as Teams functionality, are processed locally. The device initially reminded me of the Mac Mini, but its operating principle is quite different; it is a fully functional local computer. Technically, Windows 365 Link works more like a Google Chromebook.

It is, of course, clear that with a terminal connected to a modern cloud instead of an old-fashioned mainframe, one can accomplish significantly more versatile tasks.

Time will tell how well the Windows 365 Link will be adopted. I consider it will have realistic and even significant potential in the future, especially in standardized corporate environments where local IT can be lighter, more manageable, and more cost-effective compared to laptops.

From On-Premises Servers and Data Centers to the Cloud—and Back Again!

Another significant announcement was the Azure Local concept, which could partially address the high costs and capacity limitations of cloud solutions. Cloud service providers face challenges in offering sufficient capacity at a reasonable price, as rapidly evolving and expanding AI solutions require vast amounts of processing power, storage capacity, and bandwidth. Additionally, the chip industry, for example, is currently a strong seller's market. It is no wonder that many companies have found cloud services to be extremely expensive.

According to studies, approximately 60% of respondents cite cost savings as their primary goal for using cloud solutions. At the same time, 53% of the surveyed companies report that the costs of cloud services exceed their budgets by an average of 15%. This situation (high costs) has led some companies to even pull their solutions out of the cloud.

The newly announced Azure Local is based on the concept of utilizing local, cost-effective servers, allowing some data processing to be done locally without losing the benefits of cloud services. This combination of local and cloud-based solutions creates a new synergy between cloud and local data processing, offering companies the potential for new cost efficiencies.

So-called 'colocation' service providers also offer the idea of cost savings: Companies can bring their own equipment to the data center racks and take responsibility for their maintenance. Combining the new Azure Local with such a concept could become very interesting for those who do not want small servers on their premises.

The future will be different

Returning to my initial observation: technological development does not move straightforwardly away from the old but sometimes even back and forth, with each wave bringing continuous improvements and new opportunities.

It will be interesting to see where the world heads in the next 5-10 years, as the rapid advancement of computing solutions continues, enabling entirely new possibilities while also considering cost efficiency. At the same time, other parallel technological fields, such as robotics, develop and become more widespread.

Looking further into the future, it would be fascinating to see the work and leisure life of the 2040s when AI has matured (hopefully bringing more good than harm), cloud technologies have become commonplace for everyday use, and efficient solutions remove the limitations on innovation and creativity. Moreover, if Elon Musk's prediction holds true, there will be more robots than humans in the world by then. We are indeed living in an unprecedented era of technological development.

Well, let's focus on making the best use of what is available now and in the coming year. :-)

Written by Kai Kaasalainen

Kai Kaasalainen is the CEO of Tamro Finland and an experienced leader with a strong background in business, strategy, and foresight research. He is also a futurist, influencer, and speaker focusing on integrating future studies into corporate leadership processes.

Useful links:

Follow me on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/kaikaasalainen

Azure Local: https://aka.ms/azurelocal

Windows 365 Link: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/windows-365/link

Microsoft Ignite 2024 "Book of News": https://news.microsoft.com/ignite-2024-book-of-news/

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