The Technological Age Of Australia: Is there a "Fair Go" for humans in the new machine age ?

Automation is set to transform how we work, shop and socialise. It's a tidal wave of change that is currently building out at sea that will reach our shores pretty soon. Usually in our mindseye the vision of AI resembles the plot of a sci-fi thriller. Laser beams, spaceships and Han Solo esque outfits. People worry that developments in A.I. will bring about the change in history when A.I. surpasses human intelligence, leading to an unimaginable revolution where robots are in control; They the new homo sapiens, and that didn't work out too well for the Neanderthals.

These are interesting thoughts to contemplate, but they are not pressing. They concern situations that may not arise for hundreds of years, if ever. At the moment, there is no known path from our best A.I. tools (like the Google computer program that recently beat the world’s best player of the game of Go) to “general” A.I. — self-aware computer programs that can pursue common-sense reasoning, attain knowledge in multiple domains, feel, express and understand emotions etc.

This doesn’t mean we have nothing to worry about. On the contrary, the A.I. products that now exist are improving faster than most people realize and promise to radically transform the world as we know it, and it's highly contentious if this is for the better. Currently they are only tools, not a competing form of intelligence. But they will reframe what "work" means for us and how wealth is accumulated, leading to potential economic inequalities and even the global balance of power.

So what is artificial intelligence today? simply speaking its a technology that takes in huge amounts of specific information and uses it to make a decision in the pursuit of a specific outcome. These are tools on steroids and can outperform human beings at a given task.

Even with a multitude of outcomes that constantly evolves with each move, machine learning algorithms are beating humans.

In Australia; contrary to current perception we are actually one of the leading GLOBAL countries for AI adoption and machine learning. This acknowledgement doesn't seem to disseminate to a wide audience. Figures from The National Employment Bureau of Statistics state that 77% of Australians believe they will not have to change their job for the next 10 years; and 84% stated they are .. "Not concerned that automation will affect their role".

CEDA "Committee Of Economic Development Of Australia" tend to paint a quite different picture. They state that "40% of the current Australian job market will NOT EXIST in 10-15 years ... THAT'S 5 MILLION JOBS !!

And with rate of change accelerating that figure is only set to rise.....

McKinsey also drives the message home stating that even with the automation technology available today - 45% of tasks that people currently get paid for in Australia could be replaced by technology.

Here's just a quick snap shot of the jobs that are currently being replaced..

Sector: Retail: Role: Till operators: Robots and automated ordering panels providing touch screen ordering (McDonalds etc)

Sector: Retail: Role: Tailors: 3D imaging and scanning software now sends a perfect template of your body to manufacturers and a tailored suit turns up at your door a week later.

Sector: Transport: Role: Taxi and Uber Drivers: Driverless cars are expected to be mainstream within 5 years on our streets. Making a vast amount of Taxi and Uber drivers redundant. I'm expecting my first baby in December this year; and I'm still getting to grips with the fact my child will never have to take a driving test !!

I was fortunate enough to spend some time with Professor Toby Walsh.Toby Walsh is one of the world’s leading researchers in Artificial Intelligence. He is a Professor of Artificial Intelligence at the University of New South Wales and leads a research group at Data61, Australia’s Centre of Excellence for ICT Research. I think Toby represented a balanced view of the pros and cons that AI contributes to human society. Particular pros included the tremendous advancements we've been able to make in surgical robotic procedures that before would be in-operable by human hand.

Can you make yourself irreplaceable ?

Although the risks will continue to rise, the roles that are most at risk are the ones where the same consistent action is repetitive with low level variables. This is because it makes automation easier and the capex costs for implementing is a bigger ROI than the Opex costs of monthly salaries. Roles which require data sourcing are also high risk as this data is better accumulated using BA or BI software which creates future trend predictions of human buying behaviours which can suggest exceptionally accurate inventory levels and even the rate of requests for refunds on E-commerce sites.

The saying that comes to mind for me is "If you can't beat them...join them"

Although robots and computers will take over our tasks they are still machines: They break, need maintenance and frequent software updates. A 2011 study by "The Internal Federation of Robotics" stated that "For every one million robots used in the industrial industry alone it will create nearly 3 million jobs".

As the momentum of AI gathers speed there will be significant casualties to the job market as we know it; but there will also be new categories of jobs for those who are willing to embrace change.

The world as we know it is significantly behind where it should be in its technology advancements. Whether this is because governments want to control the rate of change is another topic; (there is significant debate to support this)

.... But one things for sure is that the next 10 years is going to be such an amazing journey !