Technical Weekend Update 08-06-2023 DJIA & S&P 500 & BRKA
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Major Indices Week of August 4, 2023
The Dow traded an outside week down after prices started the month of August with new highs for the drive and then swooning to settle on the bottom of the week’s range with Friday posting a bearish outside day down. S&Ps staged the worst weekly decline in five months and the third largest decline of 2023, settling on the bottom of the weekly range after staging a brutal outside day down in Friday’s trade. The hourly charts are flashing preliminary bullish divergences and Friday marked some minor cycle timing, so we will see how the market responds to the first genuine corrective action in months. The next minor cycle point is this Wednesday. It is important to note that the CRITICAL timing of July 20/21 still marks the top of the FAANG and Nasdaq markets, making those areas critical to the overall trends. The next critical timing point is August 22/23. This Wednesday marks minor timing.
Sentiment backed off a bit with the selloff last week but most surveys remain at frothy/greedy levels with the AAII Sentiment Index hitting a friendly reading for the ninth week in a row. The VIX moved to the highest levels since late May/early June. The 52-week, A/D line remains greedy at +3.71%. The Dow closed the week down -1.11%. The S&P was down -2.28%. The Nasdaq ended the week down -2.43%, the FANG closed down -2.38% with the Russell holding steady, down -0.601%. The Commitment of Traders CoT has stayed flat for over a month following the short-covering by the speculators while the funds continue to nibble bites at the market.
Timing Points
BRKA DAILY H-L-C
We wanted to revisit comments made regarding BRKA back in early June. At the time we said: “Intermediate-term, BRKA still has overhead objectives in the 540K area, and holding the previous tops (breakout area) should lead to renewed rallies toward those objectives.” Now that prices have reached these objectives, what could be next for BRKA? Volume has been high on the thrust to the 540K objective, and the market is now positioned for a potential test of the all-time highs at 544,389. If BRKA breaks out into new highs now, it will offer minimum counts into the 588,364 level. A failure here at the 540K area likely leads to a retest of the 520/517K area short-term. The 50-day MA currently sits just under 515K for BRKA.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
Dow Jones Industrial Average Hourly HLC
The Dow hourly is flashing a preliminary bullish divergence with Friday’s bearish reversal and near 500-point crash intraday. The hourly has a rounded top formation now and does have some potentially lower targets based on that pattern. Let’s see how early trade emerges in the coming week with minor timing on the 4th and the next minor timing point this Wednesday. Resistance short-term is 35280, 35356 and 35432/35440. Rallies back over 35440 suggest a test of the trading highs at 35679 with intermediate counts to 35824 and longer-term counts into a gap area on the daily at 35996 to 36044. A breakout over 36044 sets up the 36513 area with potential to test the all-time record highs at 36952. A reminder that the larger inverted H&S pattern on the DJIA weekly counts toward long-term targets at 37095.
领英推荐
Support for the Dow is at 34888, 34644 and short-term pivotal at 34400/34390. A breakdown with closes under 34390 opens counts to 34132 with potential to short-term critical support of 33767/33760. Daily closes under 33760 open counts to major short-term support in the 33359 through 33316 area. Closes under 33316 can test 32998 with counts to critical intermediate-term support of 32586/32580. Closes below 32580 suggest a move to 32170 with potential to 31341/31330.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly HLC
Resistance
Support
S&P 500 Cash Index?
The S&P hourly is also flashing a preliminary bullish divergence on the slow stochastics with the intraday plunge on Friday. There is a large gap overhead now as prices near a key support area at?4434/4430. Daily closes under 4430 set up a move to 4180/4177. Closes under 4177 open counts to 4049 and critical short-term support of 3917/3910. Daily closes below 3910 open counts to 3754/3750 with potential to support at 3503/3491.
S&P 500 Index Weekly HLC
Resistance short-term is 4535, 4540 and pivotal at 4556/4560. The hourly gap runs from 4550 through 4575. A drive back over 4575 is bullish for a test of the swing high at 4607. Closes over 4607 suggest a minimal test of 4637.?A breakout with closes above 4637 opens potential toward 4748 and ultimately 4818. Above the record highs opens counts to 4952/5000 with potential to 5144.?
Resistance
Support
Realtor Associate @ Next Trend Realty LLC | HAR REALTOR, IRS Tax Preparer
1 年Thanks for the updates on, The Journal.