Tech for the Twenties
There was a time when disruptive technological breakthroughs with the potential to metamorphose human existence occurred once in many human generations. In what could be one of the biggest upheavals of our times, now many such occur in one human generation. Possibly an uncanny form of Moore’s law is at play here too, that postulates a continuous upward spiral in the number of metamorphic technological breakthroughs per human generation!
The fascination of humans with technology is not new. What digital is to our generation, the wheel was to its own. So were stone tools, metallurgy, the printing press, electricity, and the automobile to theirs. Technology has always been simultaneously perceived as both, a boon and a curse. When we hear, therefore, that AI is replete with potential but is also a threat to humanity, it is just another instance of an oft-repeated pattern that precedes the mainstreaming of most breakthrough technologies. An unvarying aspect of breakthrough technology is its proclivity to create a schism, known as the technological divide, between those with the intent and means to access it, and the ones without.
With the twin engines of evolution and adoption of technology on overdrive, there has been a sharp reduction in the time to bridge the technological divide. Technology has quickly engulfed almost every sphere of human activity. And yet, the question uppermost on everyone’s mind is: What’s next?
As we herald another decade, this is perhaps as good a time as any to reflect upon this question. Our vision is defined by the predicted trends in technology over the next year or decade. However, not all predictions come true and those that do are not guaranteed to succeed. It may be more pertinent, therefore, to define a future technological landscape that follows our vision of the future, than the other way. Therefore, let us shift gears and focus on the human aspirations which the technological landscape must meet over the next decade.
Brain-Computer Interface (BCI). BCI refers to a direct interface between the electroencephalographic (EEG) signals from the human brain and devices with a digital interface, like hi-def cameras, microphones, robotic limbs, and others. With the mainstreaming of BCI, humanity should see a near-end (remember the technological divide?) of life-impacting disabilities like blindness, deafness, motor disorders, paralysis and many such. BCI has been on the cards for a decade now, and there have been some breakthroughs, but a lot of work must be done before it can truly touch humans that need them most.
Stem cell therapy. Stem cell therapy is the next avatar of organ transplant, using stem cells extracted from the donor’s bone marrow or blood in the umbilical cord instead of human organs, which are in limited supply. These stem cells have the unique ability to develop into almost any cell-type that is required by the body and can replicate to produce more of the same type of stem cells. Aside from treating a range of severe diseases including macular degeneration, diabetes, heart disease, and arthritis, stems cells can replace neurons damaged by spinal cord injury, stroke, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s and other neurological disorders.
Blockchain. Blockchain combines cryptography and decentralized record-keeping, making it extremely difficult to hack or duplicate information on the Internet. While it is neither new nor revolutionary anymore, its application is mostly confined to the mining of cryptocurrency (like Bitcoin). As an underlying layer for web-based transactions, Blockchain can be a robust safety net against identity theft, piracy, fraud, unauthorized access to contracts and personal records, etc., thus protecting us from devious intents and making the worldwide web a trusted partner in our digital journey.
Green Tech. Technology can be a very potent shot in the arm for making the Earth a greener planet. It can be applied to recycle plastic waste to construct roads and bricks. On another level, a combination IoT, AI, Big data and renewable energy sources can create systems that can effectively monitor and optimize the carbon footprint in smart cities, towns and villages across the planet, making our world a lot more conducive to all forms of life.
nG networks (where n>4). Successive generations of mobile technology over the last two decades have incrementally boosted data transfer rates to enable intelligent applications like Google Maps, Uber, and many others. 5G is not an incremental improvement but a 100-fold increase in mobile data transfer rates, finally enabling the ecosystem of connected “things” (like cars, CCTV cameras, medical diagnostic equipment), smart cities, and other context-aware systems, which generate several GB of data per device in a day, to evolve and prosper. 5G+ is thus inherent to the mainstreaming of many technologies that have tremendous untapped potential for uplifting human lives. For example, remote health diagnosis and treatment will be a tremendous aid to the vast number of people in areas that do not have access to medical facilities.
Cognitive Computing. Notice that we have not touched on the highly impactful Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Natural Language Processing technologies in this article. That is because Cognitive Computing provides for an integrated AI, ML, and NLP to enhance human cognitive ability, enabling humans to take advantage of the vast potential of all these technologies to simulate the human thought process, supplementing decision making and uncovering insights from humungous amounts of data – like helping doctors in the diagnosis and treatment of disease, accurate data and sentiment analytics, and improved human-computer interactions.
Quantum Computing. Quantum computing is a form of computing that uses the properties of quantum mechanics to solve problems that are too complex for the traditional Boolean (or digital) computers. It finds use in cutting-edge research (e.g. life saving medicines), advanced machine-learning algorithms (e.g., to diagnose rare illnesses), financial modeling (e.g., for improved life after retirement), and complex problem solving (e.g. redirecting emergency resources, weather forecasting). Quantum computing is, however, inherently ‘fuzzy’ and hence not suitable for every type of problem. Thus, the dominance of digital computing will only be marginally challenged but quantum computers will become increasingly relevant to escape the vortex of complex problems that humans may find themselves in the future.
Graphene. Graphene is the lightest (1 square meter sheet weighing all of 0.08 grams), thinnest (the unmatchable thickness of just one atom), yet the strongest (300 times stronger than steel) known compound, while being more elastic than rubber and an excellent conductor of heat and electricity. Graphene can be used to build vastly more efficient electronic components like batteries and capacitors, even foldable televisions, phones, and electronic newspaper sheets, and optical-fibre communication equipment. Its anti-corrosive properties also make it ideal as a permanent paint on metal surfaces, building material, etc. while its strength makes it a potential replacement for Kevlar in making bulletproof clothing. The use cases are still evolving each with a revolutionary impact on human life. It is expected that over the next decade the affordability and fabrication of graphene-based systems will lead to their widespread absorption in the mainstream.
Intelligent Transportation Systems. A merger of new technology with physical mobility in ever-increasing ways is a compelling requirement to minimize congestion and maximize safety in the face of explosive growth in urban populations. A combination of futuristic technologies like advanced network-independent GPS (GPS-III); compact, fuel-efficient, and AI-enabled autonomous vehicles; Hyperloop and other forms of hi-speed mass transportation systems; and electric hybrid vehicles including vans and buses getting into the mainstream will hold the key to the future of transportation. Future last-mile and delivery logistics will get a boost with environment-friendly solutions like connected bicycles and drones gaining wide acceptance. The new transportation ecosystem will create pathways into further progress and development, as the past has demonstrated with the introduction of the locomotive, airplane, automobile and geo-positioning systems.
Advanced Security Solutions. As new technology gets absorbed in our everyday life, so do means to exploit it for dubious purposes. For example, misuse of 3D printing technology (for mass production of weapons, counterfeits, and spurious human organs), identity thefts, manipulation of IoT and AI systems, deep fakes, cyber sabotage, and the dark web can wipe out many potential gains that make technology expedient. Thus, counteracting abuse by blocking what is bad is just as important as growing what is good. This requires advanced security technologies which include deep learning solutions that focus on anomalous behaviour, hardware authentication, state-of-the-art analytics for user-behavior trends, advanced encryption standards, and virtualized intrusion detection and prevention systems. These and other advanced security systems will be instrumental in overcoming the biggest challenge to the development and access to technology across the globe.
Some readers may be disappointed that we have not talked about more exciting possibilities that technology has to offer – like flying cars, humanoid robots, space explorations, superconductors, and so on. This is not because these are outside the scope of technology, particularly when we are looking at a decade-long horizon, but because in my view they can be in the second tier if it comes to prioritizing technologies based on human well-being and survival. In any case, the intersections among the current and future technologies will unhinge a fountainhead of innovative applications that are life-changing in entirely new and unimagined ways.