Tech Time by Tim #57

It’s tough love time! The menu of this week is full of extra spicy hot takes. Starting us off is a request to policymakers to stop making risky gambles, followed by a hot take on the finally concluded Activision Blizzard takeover. We’ve also got some biometric bloopers to talk about, followed by a look at disinformation predators and prey. Last but not least, the twilight of the TikTok Traders and lessons from some (bad) role models.

At A Glance

A quick overview of this week’s content.

·?????? The Week That Was: A Risky Gamble, Micro(soft)management

·?????? Cyber Safety Blanket: Biometric Bloopers, Disinformation Predators And Prey

·?????? Rules of Engagement: Twilight Of The TikTok Traders, (Bad) Role Models

The Week that Was:

A look back at the tech world of the past week.

A Risky Gamble:

An effort in the Netherlands to change the warning text on gambling ads to something that might actually discourage people was successfully thwarted by the gambling industry this past week. This is in line with the legalization of online gambling back in 2021. That legalisation was due in no small part to the extensive influence the gambling industry has thanks to a powerful presence in local sports and charity funding. Riskier still than the gambling itself, is the ‘gambling mindset’ represented by the phenomenon of ‘novelty bets,’ which can be anything from what kids think their parents will bring home for dinner, to what kind of shoes a celebrity might wear to an award ceremony.

Online gambling in particular is gradually making its way into more and more parts of public life owing to accessibility, relative anonymity, and ever-present advertising by celebrities and other influencers. Online spaces such as the streaming platform Twitch are popular, as are physical spaces such as bus stops.

Online gambling, especially by children and teens, was a major growth sector over the course of the pandemic, though already a problem well before then. Back in 2021, the UK was warned to be tumbling into a gambling crisis, whereas the US saw its own downward spiral as early as 2018 after a landmark Supreme Court ruling in favor of sports betting. Many popular mobile games use monetization based on gambling, using the concept of loot boxes. Loot boxes are basically slot machines. You pull the handle and hope you get whatever graphic represents a jackpot. Children supposedly spend around €39 per month trying to hit that jackpot, though it’s important to note that other means of monetization such as special outfits factor into this figure as well.

The last time we let problem gamblers have such direct control over major parts of government policy, we got the 2008 financial crisis. Kids and teens who are problem gamblers early in life are likely to stay problem gamblers later in life. Gambling is every bit as addictive as tobacco, even using the same playbook to get people hooked. Whilst the majority of us might not be caught dead in physical casinos, we’ve all got a private casino in our pockets, ready and waiting for us to hit the lever. That’s what’s truly frightening about ‘novelty bets.’ Just remember, the house always wins. LINK

Micro(soft)management:

The long legal battle between Sony and Microsoft has finally drawn to a close and Microsoft now stands victorious. It has successfully managed to clear all regulatory hurdles that stood in the way of purchasing video game publisher Activision Blizzard for? $68.7 billion.

Since the start of this long chain of events, most analysts and regulators have focussed on whether or not the Activision Blizzard acquisition will or won’t give Microsoft an unfair advantage in the gaming market. I have a different take. To me, it was never about whether or not Microsoft could complete the buyout or not, it was about whether or not Microsoft could make proper use of the new Intellectual Property (IP) or not. Historically, Microsoft has really struggled to do just that.

I feel as if Microsoft has always placed too much importance on past accolades, causing it to miscalculate the present state and future value of acquisition targets. Examples include the Halo and Gears of War IP’s being bought after they were already ‘over.’ Microsoft kept trying to take shortcuts, and because it could shake off even the most expensive failures, the right lessons weren’t learned from those shortcuts often leading down ravines. That’s the crux of the issue here. Limitations breed innovation, and Microsoft has no limits. This is kind of funny when you consider that ‘Play Has No Limits’ is actually Sony’s current PlayStation slogan.

Phil Spencer, the head of Xbox in some capacity since 2001, steadily rose up through the ranks until ultimately being put in charge of all of Microsoft’s gaming ambitions in January of 2022. That’s how we got to the unified ‘Microsoft Gaming’ brand of today. Spencer’s done well overall, and his vision is sound. The ship he’s trying to steer is way too big for one man though, and buying so many troubled companies such as Activision Blizzard means he also buys the dysfunctions that made them vulnerable to acquisition in the first place.

So what I want to see from Microsoft Gaming is not a sizzle reel of newly acquired IP that may or may not lead to quality content. I don’t want to read about yet another round of mass layoffs because old problems becoming new problems. What I want to see is a robust plan to actually leverage all of these IPs and all of the talent Microsoft Gaming has at its disposal. Because right now, this ain’t it (master) chief. LINK ?

Cyber Safety Blanket:

Covering important cyber security developments so you sleep a little more soundly at night.

Biometric Bloopers:

23andMe is a genetic testing company most well-known for its popularity with people curious about their heritage. It’s recently been in the news for a large hack that’s potentially exposed the personal information of millions of customers. Meanwhile, Google has started a major push for ‘passwordless’ logins using its new passkey system. WhatsApp, still one of the most popular chatting apps in the world, has already enabled the feature for Android users.

What interests me so much about the 23andMe hack is that it included the DNA profiles of victims. The most common alternative for passwords right now relies on biometric data. This is reliant on unique genetic characteristics such as your fingerprints, facial structure, or soon, your eyes. That last part is particularly relevant to the spatial computing era Apple hopes to start, and that Meta hopes to steer in a more preferable direction (to Meta). It’s also what got OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s side hustle ‘Worldcoin’ in such hot water back during its initial September rollout (man, so much shit went down in September…).

Titles such as ‘Oops, Worldcoin lost your eyeballs’ talked about the questionable at best security of the all-encompassing biometric database Altman and co. sought to create. Worldcoin is a cryptocurrency/digital ID initiative that wants to give people ‘Worldcoins’ in exchange for adding their biometric information into a large database meant to ultimately replace traditional identification methods such as passports.

So riddle me this, what if Worldcoin succeeds, what if we all give Altman (or anyone else) our eyeballs? What if all of our personal information is ‘locked behind our eyes?’ They say the eyes are the window of the soul, but in this case they’d also be the gateway to your social security number and bank account. So what I’m wondering is… would it be possible to use the genetic profile of someone in a multimodal (able to seamlessly switch between text and images etc.) prompt injection (hiding malicious instructions inside of seemingly innocent requests) attack?

Many of the biggest platform holders at present want to integrate copilots into their core technical infrastructure, meaning such copilots would have access to almost every aspect of your device. So what if prompt injection with stolen genetic information could be used to spoof (fool with an imitation) their security? I think that’s equal parts scary and interesting to think about. And if you can imagine it, you can prepare to thwart it! LINK

Disinformation Predators And Prey:

This past week Google outlined the novel DDoS method used to launch large-scale attacks against major cloud providers which peaked back in August of this year. The name of the attack method is HTTP/2 ‘Rapid Reset.’ We also got further clarification of another attack back in September that used Israeli-made ‘Predator’ spyware to target… US congressman…?

The latter part will need a bit more explanation, so let’s get right to it. Vietnam was seemingly paranoid about the intentions of the US leading up to a new treaty the two nations would be discussing, so it tried to use Predator to get some ‘insights.’ The operation with which Vietnam lured the intended targets into clicking on malicious links on Twitter/X also ended up catching a lot of unrelated people, giving researchers enough leads to follow so they could ultimately uncover the whole plot. Whilst yes, Twitter/X isn’t exactly the easiest place to be right now if you’re looking for information regarding… anything… there’s a bigger issue here.

If we’re talking about how much of a problem disinformation on social media is during major conflicts, too much energy is wasted on pointless blame games, not enough is spent looking after the people that actually let us know what things are wrong, how, and what potential solutions there might be. I am talking here, of course, about the international collaboration between researchers.

And unfortunately, we’re seeing signs that researchers might be decoupling. Much as governments may have grievances with other governments, international research collaborations tend to be a lot more stable and productive. As far as cybersecurity goes, such international teams are responsible for content such as fact checks, open source project maintenance, and periodic ransomware overviews, to name but a few. Skilled multinational research teams are the natural predators of disinformation, and they are not being taken good enough care of. LINK

Rules of Engagement:

Ethics and legal matters regarding tech engagement.

Twilight Of The TikTok Traders:

Livestream shopping experienced a massive boom in China over the course of the pandemic, continuing on afterward until as much as half of the nation’s internet users could be counted as an addressable audience by mid-2023. Companies such as Shein, Alibaba, and the many different ‘TikTok Traders’ peddling wares via live streams or short-form videos could easily rake in millions of dollars worth of revenue per appearance for every star salesman/saleswoman they had access to. I am going to keep using the term ‘TikTok Trader’ as a catch-all term for the sake of convenience, it does not mean that such salesmen and women are only active on TikTok, far from it.

You’ll probably not be surprised to learn how desperate the likes of Amazon have been to popularise livestream shopping in their western home markets. To little success thus far, relatively speaking. In fact, they might be somewhat alarmed to hear that even China’s livestream shopping bubble appears to be deflating. The reasons for this deflation are actually pretty straightforward. As economic uncertainty makes consumers more cautious, they spend less, and sales slump. Since the market is so oversaturated, a ton of companies suddenly get desperate to stay afloat, ramping up their employees’ workloads whilst lowering wages and increasing prices. As a result of that Chinese TikTok Trader income fell by roughly 30% between 2022 and 2023 in major cities like Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing.

So, how do you convince wary shoppers to choose you instead of the countless equally desperate rivals? Come across as more sincere, and somehow foster more human connections. Easier said than done, since video calling makes people feel sadder and lonelier according to new research. Thus, TikTok Traders have to work even harder in order to be the viewer’s emotional support, many smaller ones being crushed under the weight of all this extra emotional labor needed to just survive in the industry.

And so it goes. The only way to set oneself apart from the rest of what is now a heavily oversaturated market is to be more appealing someway, somehow. It’s the ‘quirky brand’ phenomenon that we’re used to seeing across social media over on this side of the great firewall. The outcome appears to be the same. If being ‘funny and different’ is the norm, doesn’t that make everyone the same in the end? LINK

(Bad) Role Models:

Unity Technologies CEO John Riccitiello has been ousted. Unity Technologies operates the popular game engine ‘Unity.’ Unity Technologies tried to enforce a widely criticized new revenue scheme to try and fix its profitability issues. Yet even before that, Riccitiello was not particularly popular.

Speaking of profitability fears, Samsung’s chip business isn’t looking too hot. Qualcomm is also edging ever closer to losing its most important client Apple. The ‘Snapdragon X’ will directly compete with Apple’s versatile M-series chips to try and make up for that loss, perhaps even scoring some revenge if things go well. Qualcomm and Apple might actually hate each other more than Unity developers hate Riccitiello. Just as Qualcomm wants to be able to survive without Apple, Apple has been trying to get rid of Qualcomm’s components for years.

Whether things go right or wrong though, people need recognizable faces to cheer or jeer at. They need role models! Oh hey, look, more parasocial relationships, who would have thought? That’s why Meta is paying as much as $5 million for 6 hours of work to some of its celebrity partners for its AI chatbot program.

The personal brands of a company’s representatives have never been more important, yet much like the TikTok Traders of livestream shopping, the same risks apply. Having high-visibility figures as the face of a company ties that company’s reputational fate to those representatives. That’s not just dangerous for when such a representative goes off the rails, it risks scapegoat solutions to deep structural problems that won’t be resolved through scapegoat sacrifices. To bring this back around to Unity, I feel like at least as a CEO, John Riccitiello was a bad role model, humans are fallible, they have personality flaws and are prone to error.

The mistaken idea that AI isn’t prone to such errors is important to keep in mind when it comes to AI clones of real people. Those chatbots aren’t people, and they shouldn’t be treated as such. Yet parasocial relationships may warp our interactions with them, resulting in dangerous misunderstandings or false expectations towards real people. We need to measure the two by different standards to ensure proper safety and utility. LINK

A Nice Cup of Serendipity:

Cool bits and bobs from around the web.

New Physics LINK

Moon Melts LINK

Vertical Farming LINK

Tiny Rainbows LINK

Whole Earth Catalogue LINK

Pika, Pika, Panic LINK

The Deep End:

A weekly batch of long-form content recommendations.

Space Exploration In Games:

A tale of ambition and iteration in a niche but storied genre of video games. LINK

The West vs. The Rest:

The setup for this article makes some pretty basic errors, like assuming ‘the West’ exists as a monolithic entity, and that it is basically just the US, specifically Silicon Valley. The selection of companies on offer here is well worth a look though. LINK

Return of The Lipstick King:

Austin Li is one of the most successful and famous ‘TikTok Traders’ in China. He had a wild ride before mysteriously disappearing, and now he’s back. LINK

One More Thing…

I tested out Xbox Game Pass on a MacBook Pro this past week, using a PS5 controller to play the games. I’ve been with both the PlayStation and Xbox brands as a player since their inception, and I know very well the long and fearsome rivalry between Microsoft and Apple. So it’ll likely never stop being funny to me that I can use a Sony controller to play Xbox games on an Apple device. You can actually learn a lot by mixing and matching products and services, especially when their respective platform holders would rather you didn’t. It betrays the priorities and oversights of each company, it shows their strengths, and their weaknesses.

For example, Apple has amazing hardware and optimization in their devices yet their prices and discoverability for the few games natively present on their massively overpriced (for gamers) platform suuuuuuuuuuuck. Steam has to use an old compatibility layer to run on Mac, and it looks like shit with the notch, which I will continue to consider an abomination to design god until my dying breath. Meanwhile, Microsoft does a brilliant job supporting Game Pass on everything from smartphones to the Steam Deck, to the aforementioned MacBook. Buuuuuuut small little conveniences such as being able to easily quit out of games, or get the button prompts you want for whatever controller you’re using? Forget about it! Local Installs? Reconsider…

Last but not least, Sony makes the best controllers, it’s not even close. I use Sony controllers on everything except my Steam deck. But as great as Sony’s hardware is, as great as its 1st party games are…Its online (gaming) ecosystem is honestly kind of pathetic. Not Nintendo levels of pathetic, thank god, but it’s never quite matched up to Xbox’s offering. Where am I going with all this? Well! These nitty, gritty, seemingly irrelevant details are things you only discover and understand when you really dig down into them, when you really try out the stuff that your job is about, tech! Executives, perhaps more than anyone else, need to truly ‘get it’ if they are to properly make use of both their human and financial resources.