Tech, Politics, and Power: Seven Predictions for 2025

Drawing from conversations with clients, founders, investors, and friends across San Francisco, New York City, and Europe, we've identified seven predictions for 2025 at Rihs Ventures . These predictions reflect fundamental shifts in how we think, work, and interact with institutions and technology.

1. Tech and Politics Converge?

Technology and (geo-)politics become increasingly inseparable:

• United States: Silicon Valley's political influence reaches new heights in the new presidential Administration (1). Plus, the global political influence and activism of US tech players becomes even more pronounced, from London to Berlin (2).
• China: Technology development aligns ever more closely with state priorities, including concerted pushes in AI and quantum computing (3).
• Europe: Regional fragmentation and ongoing conflicts hamper coordinated tech policy - however, the EU will continue to pursue it’s heavy-handed regulatory agenda, enforcing new regulations such as the Digital Markets Act, Digital Services Act, MiCA, and AI Act?(4)?

What to watch: VC/Tech Personnel and Influence in Trump 2.0, and shifts in US Tech Policy - such as a more laissez-faire approach in crypto (5) and AI policy (6)

2. AI Accelerates

While progress in the next generations of Large Language Models may slow down, the practical applications of AI will accelerate dramatically. Organizations across private and public sectors will implement AI solutions at scale (e.g. in functions such as sales, and in verticals like professional services), fundamentally transforming operational efficiency and unlocking new capabilities.

What to watch: Enterprise and consumer adoption metrics, new use cases, performance and scalability leaps in next generation models

3. Microventures Thrive

The barriers to entrepreneurship are falling rapidly. AI-powered tools have dramatically reduced the cost and complexity of starting a business, enabling a new generation of founders to launch ventures with minimal capital. These microventures - lean, adaptive, and tech-enabled - will proliferate across sectors, driving innovation from the ground up.

What to watch: Expect revenue per employee metrics to increase across new ventures and scale-ups, along with a higher percentage of single-person LLCs vs traditional business structures

4. Dawn of Defense Tech

Global tensions (in Ukraine, the Middle East, and East Asia) have catalyzed unprecedented innovation in defense technology. Industry leaders like Palantir and Anduril, along with European contenders such as Helsing, are reimagining military capabilities in next-generation hardware and software. NATO countries will continue to increase their defense spending in the new geopolitical environment. The U.S. will prioritize technological modernization of its military infrastructure, with contracts likely to shift from legacy defense contractors to new players (7). Although VC investments in defense tech have retreated from their 2022-23 high of $35bn per year to around $25bn in 2024 (8), the structural tailwinds for the industry are still significant for the next 3-5 years.?

What to watch: Expect defense tech dealmaking volumes to stay in the $20+bn range, and expect continued debate around NATO defense spending targets and realities (likely on display at the 2025 NATO summit June 24-26) (9)

5. The End of Experts

Traditional gatekeepers of knowledge continue their decline as trust in mainstream media erodes (10), replaced by direct-to-consumer platforms, social media networks and podcasts. The 'death of expertise' (11), as proclaimed in 2017, will continue to accelerate from here. Along with a new media environment, the rise of LLMs and 'expert-grade' (PhD-level) AI tools (12) will continue to democratize access to specialized knowledge, allowing individuals to bypass traditional educational hierarchies and develop expertise independently. These shifts fundamentally challenge the authority of traditional media, established experts and institutions.

What to watch: Search traffic, trust and engagement metrics of traditional media vs new media platforms?

6. Europe Struggles

Leadership challenges in France and Germany, combined with the ongoing war in Ukraine and a slow ramp-up of the new European commission, continue to impede European political leadership and economic recovery (13). Meaningful stabilization and structural reforms likely won't materialize until 2026. While there is some emerging consensus and what would need to be done - the ‘Draghi report’ (14) offers a solid blueprint - Europe’s fragmented governance and political climate will continue to prevent meaningful change in the year ahead.?

What to watch: EUR/USD parity, German Federal Election (Feb 23)

7. Rise of the Right

The failure of centrist policies to address core economic and social challenges, such as inflation and immigration, fuels populist momentum. This rightward political shift, which we can already observe in Europe, reflects continued social upheaval and global dissatisfaction with traditional governance models.

What to watch: Center-right/far-right electoral results and government participation in Germany, Austria, UK, France, Italy?

Let me know in the comments where you (dis)agree, and what you see in store for 2025. While this will be another year of political and technological upheaval, I believe that for those prepared to embrace change, 2025 presents unprecedented opportunities to shape the future.

(1) https://www.axios.com/2025/01/03/silicon-valley-washington-dc-venture-capital

(2) https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musks-quest-for-domination-has-gone-global/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

(3) https://www2.deloitte.com/cn/en/pages/about-deloitte/articles/deloitte-research-issue-95.html

(4) https://www.taylorwessing.com/en/interface/2024/predictions-2025/what-to-expect-from-the-new-eu-parliament-and-commission-in-2025

(5) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/crypto-industry-pushes-policy-sea-change-after-trump-victory-2024-11-14/

(6) https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/ai-policies-under-trump-to-contrast-with-state-regulatory-trends

(7) https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/22/palantir-and-anduril-reportedly-building-a-tech-consortium-to-bid-on-defense-contracts/

(8) https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/investing/investment-trends/defense-tech-innovation-and-the-role-of-startups

(9) https://www.nato.int/cps/is/natohq/news_225618.htm?selectedLocale=en

(10) https://www.axios.com/2024/10/15/media-trust-gallup-survey

(11) https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/books/the-death-of-expertise-explores-how-ignorance-became-a-virtue.html

(12) https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/what-to-expect-from-ai-in-2025-hybrid-workers-robotics-expert-models

(13) https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/12/30/challenges-facing-european-markets-set-to-persist-through-2025

(14) https://commission.europa.eu/topics/strengthening-european-competitiveness/eu-competitiveness-looking-ahead_en