Tech Industry Commoditization

Over the past decade we have seen a trend toward commoditization of IT services related to operations, compute, storage and networks. Now with the rise of AI we are seeing the same impact on the world of software development. This morning I read the most recent in a series of articles describing the commoditization impact of AI on what until very recently was a safe zone under high demand for IT skills.

The end of coding? Microsoft publishes a framework making developers merely supervise AI

https://vulcanpost.com/857532/the-end-of-coding-microsoft-publishes-a-framework-making-developers-merely-supervise-ai/

“Last month, Microsoft added its own contribution to the argument by releasing a research paper detailing AutoDev: an automated AI-driven development framework, in which human developers are relegated to the role of mere supervisors of artificial intelligence doing all of the actual software engineering work.”

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.08299.pdf

It was their cover image which I use here that blew my mind “Code for Food!”

This is just one of a series of thought leadership pieces I have recently been reading all pointing out the same trend. During our Pink24 conference a few weeks ago Fast Company released an article titled.?

Thanks to AI, the coder is no longer king: All hail the QA engineer

https://www.fastcompany.com/91045570/thanks-to-ai-the-coder-is-no-longer-king-all-hail-the-qa-engineer

Recently Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, basically turned on its head the typical career advice we give new technology professionals and said twice in the past few weeks don’t tell your children to pursue a career in software development. https://vulcanpost.com/853029/dont-learn-to-code-jensen-huang-on-career/

It's been several years since I read Nicholas Carr’s book “The Big Switch” that described technology adoption stages through the historical lens of centuries. These recent events have reminded me about Nicholas’s key messages.

Nicolas Carr's 3 Stages of Technology Adoption:

1. Strategic Advantage:
2. Ubiquitous Adoption:
3. Commoditization:

With this final stage comes changes in how we acquire the technology and how much we are willing to pay for it.

For example, at one point if you wanted the cutting edge technology of electricity you had to generate it yourself by burning some goal or throwing a water wheel into the river. However, as this technology became widely available to one and all and it was far cheaper to buy it through the wall, we dismantled our own power generating capabilities (data centers) and bought our electricity (compute and storage) off the public grid (the cloud).

In the third stage of the technology adoption curve, commoditization, several changes occur in the job market for that industry:

• Automation: As the technology becomes widely adopted, it often leads to automation of tasks that were previously performed by humans. Google SRE likes to call this (automating the toil of our lives) This can result in a decrease in the number of jobs available in the industry. I personally know of two recent graduates from very high end computer science degrees that have been looking for work now for over a year and cannot find an entry level position.

• Wage Normalization: As the technology becomes commoditized, the competitive advantage that it once provided diminishes. This leads to a decrease in salaries for professionals in the industry, as employers are no longer willing to pay a premium for the skills and knowledge required to use the technology. Being a father of three sons and working in the tech industry myself I encouraged them to get into technology jobs since the starting salary was significantly higher than other industries. While this has been true for the past several decades I believe the gravy train days are coming to a close.

• Outsourcing: As the technology in question becomes a basic necessity but now is commoditized we see the majority of the "new" jobs moving to external suppliers. As we buy our technology off the public grid it often becomes more cost-effective for companies to outsource the management and maintenance of the technology to external providers. This generally leads to a decrease in the number of jobs available in-house.

• Shift from Generalist to Specialized Roles:? With commoditization, the demand for generalist roles diminishes as automation takes over repeatable tasks requiring the technology professionals to specialize. While there remains a demand and a willingness to pay high salaries for specialization the number of people required is much smaller than during previous periods.

Are Coders' Jobs At Risk? AI's Impact On The Future Of Programming

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sylvainduranton/2024/04/15/are-coders-jobs-at-risk-ais-impact-on-the-future-of-programming/?sh=52d1354273e5

Yet, while coding as we know it is indeed facing disruption, the creative, problem-solving essence of computer programming is likely to remain a largely human endeavor for the foreseeable future.

The good news I would like to leave you with is this quote from today’s highlighted article.

How do you plan for a career in tech? It used to be simple: you specialized in a specific field, mastered the required tools and languages, continuously updated your skill set as the technology advanced, and you could expect to be a well-paid, sought after professional eventually. But now the value of your technical expertise vs. the ability to juggle AI bots coming up with solutions on their own flips it all on its head. Experts with years of practice are likely to remain in demand (a bit like an old mechanic still fixing modern cars today – they may be different, but many fundamentals remain the same, and his experience can’t easily be gained anymore). Fortunately, nobody is planning to equip computers with human emotions, so at least this aspect of teamwork is unlikely to become a problem, but many developers who today simply write code will now have to specialize in explaining it rather than executing themselves. This certainly wasn’t a challenge that most techies foresaw when they entered the field but may very soon become a do or die situation for them.”

https://vulcanpost.com/857532/the-end-of-coding-microsoft-publishes-a-framework-making-developers-merely-supervise-ai/

Its this very shift that I have been recently thinking about and is the basis for a recent e-book that we have published.

e-Book

The need to proactively re-train and upskill our workforce is the focus of a recent Pink Elephant e-book “AI Augmented ITSM” that I co-authored with my colleague Robin Hysick. https://www.dhirubhai.net/in/robin-hysick-2700252/

AI Augmented ITSM e-book link: https://lnkd.in/gdQt2y3S

e-Book Excerpt:

The Emotional Intelligence Edge: Why Soft Skills Are the New Must-Have for IT

The landscape of AI, particularly generative AI (GenAI), is evolving at breakneck speed. New tools and models emerge constantly, reshaping possibilities seemingly overnight. Traditionally, IT professionals have thrived on technical expertise and problem-solving through technology analysis. However, as predictive analytics become increasingly automated, a critical shift is needed: the cultivation of ‘soft skills’ like empathy and emotional intelligence.

This emphasis on soft skills may seem counterintuitive for an industry known for its technical focus. It requires a mindset shift, but one essential for future success. IT professionals who fail to adapt and develop these interpersonal skills risk being left behind in the AI revolution.

Troy’s thoughts: what are yours?

Interested in specialization and up-skilling discussions? Consider the learning and development opportunities related to integratedITSM?.

https://www.pinkelephant.com/en-US/Products/Training

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