?? Is Tech Advancing Too Fast? ?

"Technology is the knack of arranging the world so it does what we want. The problem is, we want to do a good many things we shouldn't do." - Max Frisch

We have culminated 112 days of warfare (16 weeks), where there is tremendous progress and we know who our allies are. On the other hand, it looks like the entire region is about to catch fire, as Lebanon, Syria and even Iraq are joining. The current global outlook is anything between well-invested in conflict or completely disinterested - what will tomorrow bring? We will prevail!

??? Mexico and the Global Chip Market ??

The Shift from China to Mexico

In recent years, Mexico has emerged as a pivotal player in the global semiconductor industry, effectively replacing China as the primary supplier for the US market. The enactment of bilateral trade restrictions catalysed this shift, with Mexico presenting a more cost-effective alternative. This trend is bolstered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), underlining Mexico's growing prominence in the chip manufacturing sphere.

Mexico’s Medical Device Market

Mexico's medical device market has reached an impressive $18 billion. This growth has attracted global leaders like Philips and Medtronic, further diversifying the country's industrial portfolio and highlighting its capacity for high-tech manufacturing.

Significant Investments in Tech

Other investments were made by major technology corporations which have recognised Mexico's strategic value. Intel and Samsung, two industry giants, have committed substantial investments in Mexico, with $6 billion and $12 billion respectively earmarked for development in Guadalajara and Queretaro. These investments signal a broader industry trend, projecting that 10% of the world's computer chips will be produced in Mexico ($5Bn out of $50Bn).

China’s Diminishing Influence

Despite being part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Mexico maintains significant autonomy from Chinese influence. China’s total investment in Mexico pales compared to that of the USA, accounting for only 4% against the USA’s 45%. This independence positions Mexico as a key player in global geopolitics, especially in the context of tech manufacturing.

The LATAM Gateway

Mexico's strategic location and growing industrial capacity make it an essential gateway to the broader Latin American market. Its rising influence and capacity to produce 10% of the world’s chips by 2030 position Mexico as a central hub in the global tech landscape.

Autonomy and Global Influence

While part of China's BRI, Mexico maintains a distinct presence, not heavily influenced by China. This autonomy, coupled with significant US investment, positions Mexico as a crucial player in global tech and manufacturing, with an expanding role in Latin American and global markets.

?? Mexico's Market Dominance ??

? Mexico vs China - Talent and Cost: Mexico’s burgeoning talent pool is increasingly on par with China’s, offering a more cost-effective solution for high-tech manufacturing, especially in the semiconductor industry.

? Securing the Chip Industry: Mexico's strategic positioning and significant foreign investments have secured its role as a pivotal player in the global chip industry.

? Medical Devices and Aerospace: The impressive growth of Mexico's medical device market and substantial investments from aerospace giants underscore its diverse industrial capabilities.

? Role in China's BRI: Mexico's participation in the BRI and its significant autonomy provide it with unique leverage in global politics and economics.

? Gateway to LATAM: Mexico's strategic location and industrial growth position it as a vital conduit to the Latin American market, enhancing its global significance.

??♂? The UK's Workforce and Tech Shift ??

Millennials' Workplace Transformation

The UK is witnessing a trend of '"quiet quitting" and "lazy lady", especially among young Millennials who have taken the majority of low-mid senior levels in most capacities of the tech world and banking. This behavioural shift in the workforce is transforming the traditional work environment.

Educational Sector Struggles

A staggering 25% of UK school pupils are absent 10% of the time. The teacher shortage and rising educational costs are exacerbating the crisis, potentially widening the talent gap with other advanced economies.

Tech Talent Exodus to the US and France

The UK's tech scene is losing ground, with Deepmind acquired by Google for an estimated $500 million and Arm, valued at $54.5 billion, IPOing in the US. This shift denotes a significant brain drain from the UK to its global competitors.

University Sector in Turmoil

UK universities are becoming increasingly expensive, deterring both local and foreign students. The loss of relevance in higher education could create a severe talent gap in the coming decades.

Over-Reliance on Foreign Tech and Chips

The UK’s dependency on imported technology, especially chips from the US and other countries, has become a critical concern. The lack of self-sufficiency in tech innovation is alarming.

Global Influence Waning

Once a tech beacon, the UK is now losing its global influence in technology and education, which could further affect its economic stability post-Brexit.

?? The UK's Market Challenges ??

? Workforce Evolution - Millennials at the Forefront: Millennials are reshaping the UK's workforce dynamics, leading to new workplace norms and attitudes.

? Educational Struggles and Talent Gaps: The UK’s education sector faces a serious crunch, threatening to create a talent deficit compared to other developed nations.

? Tech Industry Exodus - A $54.5 Billion Loss: The migration of tech giants like Arm to the US represents a substantial economic and intellectual loss for the UK.

? University Sector’s Decline - Cost and Relevance Issues: The diminishing prestige and affordability of UK universities pose a long-term challenge to the nation's intellectual capital.

? Dependency on Foreign Tech - The Risk of Technological Colonisation: The UK's increasing reliance on imported tech, particularly chips, raises concerns about its technological sovereignty.

???? Turkmenistan's Digital Ascendancy ??

Natural Gas Reserves - A Gateway to European Markets

Turkmenistan's 265 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven gas reserves solidifies its place as the world's 6th largest natural gas reserve (4% global share). Turkmenistan is vying to replace Russia as the EU's primary gas supplier. This strategic move could redefine its global political and economic influence.

Smart City - A Leap into Future Urbanisation

Turkmenistan's ambitious Arkadag Smart City project, mirroring Saudi Arabia’s NEOM initiative, aims to transform Ashgabat into a digital hub, attracting significant foreign investment.

Towards a 70% Digital Landscape by 2030

With a smartphone penetration rate of 72% in 2022 and a burgeoning $1.2 billion mobile market, Turkmenistan is on track to digitise its economy significantly, with plans to invest $520 million (9.1% of the education budget) in IT development.

Japan and South Korea Pushing for Growth

Japan and South Korea's investments, totalling $5 billion and $4.5 billion respectively, are pivotal in accelerating Turkmenistan's digital transformation, accounting for significant portions of the nation's GDP (8.8% and 7.9% respectively).

BRI and LATAM Connections - Expanding Influence

Despite being part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Turkmenistan maintains a degree of autonomy. Its strategic position also makes it a key gateway to the LATAM market, enhancing its global significance.

Political Maneuvering - A Central Asian Powerhouse

Turkmenistan's potential as a gas conduit for Europe and its investment in digital infrastructure position it as a rising power in Central Asia, capable of influencing regional politics and economies.

?? Turkmenistan's Market Transformation ??

? Natural Gas Revolution - Europe's New Supplier: Turkmenistan's shift from a Soviet satellite to a major player in the global gas market enhances its political clout and economic strength.

? Smart City Ambitions - The Next Digital Hub: Turkmenistan's Arkadag project signifies its ambition to become a leader in digital urbanisation, akin to Saudi Arabia’s NEOM.

? Digital Economy Surge - A 70% Target by 2030: With substantial investments in IT and a high smartphone penetration rate, Turkmenistan is rapidly transforming into a digital economy.

? Japanese and Korean Investments - Boosting Economic Growth: Significant foreign investments from Japan and South Korea are crucial in driving Turkmenistan’s digital ambitions, accounting for a substantial share of its GDP.

? Strategic Geopolitical Maneuvers - Influencing Central Asia: Turkmenistan’s role as a potential EU gas supplier and a gateway to LATAM underscores its growing influence in regional and global geopolitics.

?? China: Navigating a Turbulent Market ??

Facing a Three-Decade Deflation

China is grappling with a deflation unseen in over 30 years, posing significant global economic implications. With China's pivotal role on the world stage, this deflation could lead to widespread repercussions, impacting countries within its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

$6 Trillion Economic Decline - A Ripple Effect

China's staggering $6 trillion loss, equating to 33% of its GDP, rooted in a volatile real estate sector, industrial slowdown, and trade restrictions with the US, threatens to plunge the Chinese economy and its global partners into turmoil.

Chip Crunch Conundrum - A Global Semiconductor Impact

The US-China chip crunch is placing major players like Taiwan's TSMC and South Korea's Samsung in a precarious position. They face a potential 30% price cut, risking a layoff wave and exacerbating the global chip supply issue.

Syrius Robotics - A Beacon of Hope in Japan

Despite economic struggles, China's Syrius Robotics is set to deliver 3,000 robots to Japan over two years, showcasing China's capability to aid other nations amidst its economic woes.

Global Debt Collection - A Domino Effect?

The possibility of China collecting debts from countries in economic default poses a threat of a prolonged global market downturn and stagnation, as some of them already have defaulted and cannot repay these debts.

Real Estate Risks and Industrial Slump

China's real estate sector, once a robust engine of growth, faces a decline, contributing to the overall economic contraction. Alongside, the industrial sector (40% of the country's GDP) shows signs of stagnation, a worrying trend for the global manufacturing landscape.

?? China's Current Economic Scenario ??

? Unprecedented Deflation - Global Implications: China's significant deflation could have far-reaching effects on the global economy, particularly affecting countries involved in the BRI.

? $6 Trillion Loss - A Global Economic Threat: The massive financial loss in China’s real estate and industrial sectors, compounded by US trade restrictions, risks sending ripples through the global economy.

? Semiconductor Industry at Risk - Price Cuts and Layoffs: The chip crunch, with potential price cuts for major producers like TSMC and Samsung, could lead to significant layoffs and further strain the global chip supply.

? Robotics Aid to Japan - Syrius Robotics’ Contribution: China's ability to assist Japan with robotics, despite its economic struggles, highlights its continued influence in global technology sectors.

? Global Debt Collection - Potential Domino Effect: The prospect of China collecting outstanding debts could trigger a cascade of defaults, exacerbating the global economic downturn.

??? Tech Policymakers: Progress or Hindrance? ??

Chip Dependency Paralysis

The European Union's reliance on chips from the US, Taiwan, and South Korea constitutes over 80% of its technological imports, exposing a critical vulnerability similar to its dependency on Russian gas. This situation jeopardises the EU's aspiration for technological self-reliance.

Merkel's Misstep and the Ripple Effect

The EU's approach echoes former German Chancellor Angela Merkel's strategy to depend on Russian gas, which now accounts for 55% of Germany's gas imports. This dependency has hindered the EU's ability to make independent strides in technology.

CHIPS Act - A Failing Promise

The US CHIPS Act, though endowed with $52 billion in funding, has led to a surplus of unemployed tech talent. This disconnect has resulted in a 40% increase in tech sector unemployment, creating a skill gap with many unable to find relevant job opportunities.

The EU AI Act's Double-Edged Sword

The EU AI Act, with its stringent risk mitigation measures, may inadvertently stifle the industry. Overregulation risks deterring global tech giants, potentially leading to a 30% decline in the EU's tech sector growth.

France Leads in Supercomputer Investments

Despite setbacks, the EU, led by France, is investing heavily in supercomputers, earmarking €8 billion for projects supporting generative AI startups, indicating potential tech innovation within the bloc.

The Dilemma of Government Intervention

The delicate balance of government intervention in technology is exemplified by the EU and US approaches. The challenge lies in creating policies that foster innovation while ensuring a practical, market-driven focus. Without this balance, there's a risk of hindering technological progress and creating a disconnect with the industry’s actual needs.

A Cautionary Tale of Overreach

Excessive government intervention, while often well-intentioned, can backfire. The experiences of the EU and the US with their tech policies, lacking in practical economic or business data, have shown the risks of disconnection from real-world demands. Such interventions could hinder progress and innovation, emphasising the need for policies based on realistic market and workforce needs.

?? Superconductive Artificial Intelligence ??

?? Democratising AI: Ambitious Yet Questionable ??

The US, under its new initiative, aims to democratise AI, with tech giants like Microsoft and Nvidia pledging support. However, this raises questions about government overreach and its potential impact on innovation.

The Cost of AI Democratisation

While the initiative promises inclusivity, the projected cost of $30 billion over the next decade raises concerns about its financial sustainability and real-world application.

Efficiency Boost with New Superconductors

Scientists have unveiled a superconductor that could revolutionise computing, potentially reducing energy consumption of hardware by up to 70%. This innovation paves the way for more efficient, large-scale computing, especially in AI.

AI's Energy Dilemma and Solution

Current AI models, particularly in deep learning, consume vast amounts of energy. The new superconductor could decrease these energy requirements by half, making AI more sustainable and scalable.

?? AI in Sciences: Dumbing Down or Leveling Up? ??

AI applications in science, from chemistry to geology, have seen significant progress. For instance, AI in physics has led to a 30% increase in efficiency in particle identification. Adding a Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) layer for accuracy in AI models could further improve scientific discoveries, with a projected 40% increase in precision and speed across various scientific fields.

The Debate: AI's Impact on Human Intelligence

As AI continues to advance, there's a growing debate on whether it's making humans overly dependent on technology, potentially dulling human creativity and problem-solving skills.

AI's Promises and Perils

While AI offers unparalleled advancements in efficiency and discovery, it also poses significant risks of over-dependence and potential stifling of human ingenuity. As we embrace AI, it's crucial to maintain a balance, ensuring that AI enhances rather than replaces human intelligence and creativity.

?? Humanoid Robots: Revolution or Risk? ?

Performance vs. Promise

Despite Elon Musk's ambitious claims, Tesla's Optimus seems to lag, matching only the efficiency of the slowest factory worker. Although capable of folding a shirt, its real-world utility is questionable, with rivals like Figure AI and Agility Robotics already advancing in practical applications.

Investment and Timeline

BMW embarks on a revolutionary journey by partnering with Figure AI. With a hefty investment of $500 million, BMW anticipates rolling out these robots by 2025, aiming to automate 30% of their manufacturing tasks.

BMW's Partnership with Figure

BMW believes Figure's humanoid robot could give it the edge it was craving, considering the current condition of the German automotive industry which has been slumping for around 24 months already. BMW is planning to deploy humanoid robots in manufacturing, potentially enhancing efficiency by 20%.

The Fear of Job Displacement

The introduction of humanoid robots could displace millions of workers, especially in industries like manufacturing, sparking fears reminiscent of the Great Depression.

Psychological Impact on Workers

The prospect of being replaced by robots induces anxiety among workers - the McKinsey Global Institute predicts that up to 800 million jobs could be lost to automation by 2030, representing roughly 20% of the global workforce.

Mitigating Displacement Through Reskilling

The gradual introduction of robots paired with reskilling programs can ease the transition, helping workers adapt to new roles in the evolving job market. Properly managed, this transition could boost productivity by 25% while ensuring job security for the existing workforce.

The Future of Human-Robot Collaboration

While humanoid robots promise increased efficiency, balancing technological advancement with human welfare is key to a successful integration into society. The focus should be on collaboration rather than replacement, ensuring robots augment human capabilities and contribute positively to the workforce.

?????? Navigating 2024's Challenges ???

Unprecedented Layoffs in Big Tech

The tech sector leads the layoff trend, with over 150,000 jobs cut since 2022. Major players like Meta and Netflix are reshaping their workforce in response to economic pressures. Beyond tech, industries across the globe are experiencing layoffs. The banking sector, with Bank of America enforcing Return-to-Office (RTO) mandates, reflects this trend.

AI vs. Human Labour

Despite advancements, AI isn't ready to replace human roles entirely. Only 23% of jobs can be economically replaced by AI, suggesting a significant portion of the workforce remains indispensable. The high installation and operational costs of AI systems like computer vision make human labour more economically viable in many sectors.

Opportunities amid Adversity

The tech talent exodus creates an opportunity for enterprising professionals to start their ventures or join burgeoning startups, leveraging their expertise in new, innovative environments.

The Imperative of Reskilling

With AI's rising influence, there's an urgent need for workers to reskill or retrain. This is essential to stay relevant in a rapidly evolving job landscape. A 2020 World Economic Forum report estimated that 50% of all employees will need reskilling by 2025 to keep up with the pace of technological change.

Embracing Change with Gary V's Advice

Entrepreneur Gary Vaynerchuk emphasises the importance of adapting to change, overcoming fear, and seizing opportunities presented by market shifts. Vaynerchuk's advice is pertinent for both job seekers and aspiring entrepreneurs - remain agile, continuously learn, and be prepared to pivot when necessary.

The Future of Work

The evolving landscape demands a blend of adaptability, continuous learning, and embracing change. This approach will be key to thriving in the dynamic world of work.

Navigating the Layoff Wave

As layoffs reshape the global job market, professionals must adapt. A study by the OECD found that investing in reskilling programs can increase the earnings of participants by up to 24% within two years. Additionally, the World Bank estimates that investments in skills development can generate a return on investment of 6 to 13 times.

AI Takeaways for Business Leaders ??

Enhancing HR with AI

AI tools like Google Cloud Talent and BambooHR can automate parts of the onboarding process, enhancing efficiency and accuracy.

??? Utilise AI for onboarding global team members, reducing time by 40%.

??? Implement AI for employee well-being analysis, enhancing satisfaction by 25%.

Augmenting Non-Tech Teams

AI tools like UiPath and Zapier can automate repetitive tasks and derive actionable data.

??? Deploy AI for routine admin tasks, increasing team productivity by 30%.

??? Use AI for project brainstorming, improving innovation success by 20%.

Improving Time-To-Market (TTM)

AI tools like ProdOps and LeanIX can automate product development work and provide real-time visibility into product roadmaps and dependencies.

??? Implement AI in product management to reduce TTM by 35%.

??? Utilise AI for internal workflow automation, enhancing efficiency by 45%.

Financial Risk Mitigation

AI tools like Sentifi and Anaplan use AI to analyse social media sentiment to identify potential risks, as well as help businesses plan and forecast financial performance.

??? Apply AI for market trend analysis, reducing financial risks by 50%.

??? Use AI in forecasting to cut down on CapEx and OpEx by 40%.

Predicting Market Trends

AI tools like Criteo AI and Owler use AI to analyse consumer behaviour data to personalise marketing campaigns as well as track competitor activity for potential threats and opportunities.

??? Leverage AI for consumer behaviour analysis, increasing market insights by 60%.

??? Use AI for competitive analysis, improving strategic decisions by 30%.

Revolutionising Customer Service

AI tools like Amazon Connect and Medallia use AI to route calls to the right agent and automate simple tasks, as well as to collect and analyse customer feedback to improve customer success.

??? Implement AI in call centres, reducing human dependency by 70%.

??? Use AI for customer feedback analysis, improving satisfaction by 55%.

Discovering New Markets

AI tools like Panalytics and Culture AI use AI for AI-driven market research and to provide insights into cultural trends and preferences around the world.

??? Deploy AI for global market analysis, identifying new opportunities by 40%. ??? Utilise AI for cultural trend analysis, increasing market share by 25%.

Ready to Transform Your Business with AI? ??

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Looking to refine your human resource management, discover new market opportunities or enhance overall productivity?

Contact me to explore how AI can transform your business landscape and discuss tailored AI strategies that align with your unique business goals.

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