TDK Ventures’ Deep Exploration: Electric Vertical Take-off & Landing (eVTOL) Landscape

By: Anil Achyuta , Marc Bouchet

The Groundwork for eVTOL Technology

In the context of transportation and logistics, Electric Vertical Take-off and Landing (eVTOL) vehicles represent a unique area of technological development with the potential to support several key issues facing modern society. ???

The primary driver of eVTOLs and their relevance is highlighted by two significant megatrends that are occurring globally: mass urbanization and the explosive growth of e-commerce. With the rise and expansion of megacities, there is an accompanying surge in urban congestion – congestion that brings with it a host of logistical challenges, particularly in terms of mobility and transportation. Simultaneously, the accelerating digitization of the world has catalyzed unprecedented levels of e-commerce activity, reshaped the way we shop, and led to a dramatic increase in the movement of goods. The logistics of managing this surge, both within and outside urban areas, have become more complex and demanding than ever before. At the heart of these twin megatrends lies a critical component: transportation. The efficient and sustainable movement of people and goods is fundamental to the success and sustainability of both urbanization and e-commerce.

It is in this context that eVTOL vehicles, if successfully executed, represent a unique solution, offering a potential blend of high network density, sustainable power, cost efficiency, and reduced infrastructure demands. The rise of eVTOL technology has been largely driven by advancements in the drone and electric vehicle industries, mainly:

• Revolutionary battery technology spanning increased energy density, rapid charging, and overall battery lifetime.
• Improvements and developments in sensor technologies for improved control systems and rapid reaction time.
• The advent of AI and autonomy software

Each of these areas of innovation serves as a catalyst for rapidly progressing eVTOL technology which has the potential to provide new solutions to today’s mobility and transportation challenges.

Future Vision & Market Outlook

Consider this – there are more than 6 million car accidents in the United States per year, and in general car accidents represent the leading cause of death in every country worldwide [1]. And now consider that more than 1.5 billion tons of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are released per year due to vehicle transportation [2]. Both of these facts serve as daunting realities of the problems our world faces each day. Problems that are even further accentuated by mass urbanization, along with the more economic and logistic challenges previously discussed. Taking to the skies, eVTOL vehicles offer a potential pathway to addressing all of these issues. ?

Photo credit: AutoFlight

Figure 1. ?eVTOL concept in flight within an urban environment

?The key lies in the ability of eVTOLs (as their name implies) to take off and land vertically, eliminating the need for extensive runway infrastructure, while their electric powertrains ensure sustainable and efficient operation. This combination of features positions eVTOL vehicles as a key player in the future of urban mobility and logistics, offering a path to more fluid, efficient, and environmentally friendly transportation in our increasingly digital and urbanized world.

From the perspective of market outlook, this future can be viewed from two lenses – air taxi and air cargo – representing the synergy of transportation and logistics market solutions. The air-taxi market, with scope defined as both within and between cities, is projected to break $32 billion by 2035. Similarly, air cargo is speculated to break $34 billion in the same year [3].

Image credit: “The Future of Vertical Mobility,” Porsche Consulting, 2018

Figure 2. Breakdown of the eVTOL market projected in 2035.

Enabling Tech

Such a future vision can only become a reality on the shoulders of some truly outstanding enabling innovations.

• Flight Propulsion: To no one’s surprise, no vehicle moves on its own, and propulsion is a key driver in the development of any transportation technology. To enable the widespread adoption of eVTOLs, propulsion systems must be energy efficient, completely sustainable, power dense, and extremely reliable in operation. Innovation in the areas of batteries, electric motors, and even hydrogen fuels have helped advance a next generation propulsion and powertrain ecosystem for eVTOLs.
• Autonomous Control and Software: It's not enough, however, just to fly; rather, flight must be safe, stable, and efficient. It is within this area that experts are researching, exploring, and demonstrating the impressive capabilities of autonomous control. Supported by innovation and breakthroughs from autonomous cars on the ground, eVTOL companies leverage similar computer vision and sensor fusion software solutions to enable wholly safe and efficient travel of vehicles in flight.
• Airspace and Transport Management: To bring everything together– another key piece of the puzzle is airspace management and traffic coordination. In the same way thatcommercial airliners are guided by air traffic controllers, eVTOLs will need even more rigorous tracking (integrated within any autonomous control and propulsion system) given the potential for highly dense and closely networked operations in congested airspace.?

Startup Landscape

The startup landscape for eVTOL vehicles and their enabling technologies is already rapidly expanding. The first generation of innovators ( Joby Aviation , Lilium ) has inspired a second ( BETA TECHNOLOGIES , MightyFly ), with more to follow.

Air Services

Enabling Technologies

Finding the King-of-the-Hill

From conversations across the ecosystem, our goal has been to boil down key metrics and characteristics that might help us identify the 'King of the Hill' in eVTOL– or the startups we expect to lead the charge in the growth of this unique and revolutionary industry. These are the companies that not only embody the spirit of innovation but also demonstrate practical, scalable solutions in the eVTOL sector. We categorize key characteristics into tiers to discern these leaders, each reflecting critical aspects of eVTOL technology and market viability.

First and most important in such a deep tech area is the core technical acumen of the solution itself.

Tier 1: Core Technical Competencies

1. Speed >100 km/h: The ability to travel at speeds exceeding 100 km/h is fundamental for eVTOL vehicles to be viable alternatives to traditional transportation methods.
2. Payload >20 kg: A minimum payload capacity of 20 kg is essential for both passenger and cargo transport, ensuring practical utility.
3. Range >100 km: To effectively compete with ground transportation, eVTOLs must offer a range of over 100 km, enabling substantial travel distances.
4. Quiet Operation: Achieving a noise level at least 10 dB lower than helicopters is crucial for urban acceptance and reducing noise pollution.
5. Hovering Endurance: The capability to hover for over 15 minutes without significantly draining the battery is vital for operational flexibility and efficiency.

With a technical baseline established, a King-of-the-Hill team must then demonstrate the operational and business acumen to execute.?

?Tier 2: Business and Market Dynamics

1. Funding Over Time: The amount of capital raised, and the pace of funding reflect market confidence and the startup's growth potential.
2. Quality of Investors: High-caliber investors not only bring funds but also strategic guidance and credibility.
3. Ecosystem Partners: Collaborations with key players in the industry signal a startup's ability to integrate into the broader eVTOL ecosystem.
4. Market Presence: A footprint in significant markets indicates a startup's reach and its ability to address diverse regional needs.
5. Team Expertise: The team's core competencies, especially in relevant technological and business domains, indicate the startup's potential to innovate and scale.

Tier 3: Operational and Regulatory Considerations

1. Regulatory Navigation: Overcoming the hurdles in the certification process is critical for market entry and operational legitimacy.
2. Revenue and Profitability Path: Current revenues and a clear path to profitability are essential for long-term sustainability.
3. Battery Recharging Time: Efficient battery recharging capabilities are crucial for operational turnaround and fleet management.
4. Infrastructure Cost: The investment required for supporting infrastructure impacts the overall feasibility and scalability of the solution.

In summary, the 'King of the Hill' in the eVTOL industry will be a startup that not only excels in technical capabilities but also demonstrates astute business merit, navigates regulatory landscapes adeptly, and aligns well with potential industry partners. These characteristics, spread across three tiers, provide a comprehensive framework for evaluating the potential leaders in this transformative industry.

Investing in AutoFlight and Continuing Onward

In conclusion, the deep exploration of the eVTOL landscape by TDK Ventures illuminated a unique, multidisciplinary technology area with relevance and potential to support solutions to many crucial challenges facing humanity – particularly those cropping up in the face of urban expansion and congestion.?????????????????????????

The team’s conviction around the need for eVTOLs as a new category, along with key KPIs in all three Tiers, connected directly to TDK Ventures’ investment in pioneering eVTOL manufacturer AutoFlight. Across the board – from thoughtfully designed high performance vehicles in vertical and horizontal flight which leverage the team’s drone and aviation pedigree, to their strong syndicate of investors and customer partners, to the positioning in China’s eVTOL-friendly development ecosystem – AutoFlight matched potential criteria for advanced air mobility success. To date, the startup has scaled manufacturing to show formation flying of near-production ready units and demonstrated world-record passenger eVTOL flight range paving the path for continued leadership in this sector.

Admittedly, significant effort is still required for AutoFlight and their many peers in the eVTOL sector to live up to the full promise of revolutionizing transportation. Before wide adoption can be expected, further progress in infrastructure and technology development is critical. If success in delivering on this vision is achieved, from a complete vehicle platform down to the component level, we may just be able to pull a very compelling future to within reach of the everyday traveler.

References:

[1] Car accident statistics you need to know in 2023. (2023, October 27). Retrieved from https://www.ddlawtampa.com/resources/car-accident-statistics-you-need-to-know-in-2021/

[2] Reduce climate change. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/climate.shtml

[3] CMIRKET RESEARCH PRIVATE LIMITED. (2023, July 31). [Latest] global advanced air mobility market size/Share worth USD 68.1 billion by 2032 at a 35.2% CAGR: Custom market insights (Analysis, outlook, leaders, report, trends, forecast, segmentation, growth, growth rate, value). Retrieved from https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2023/07/31/2715118/0/en/Latest-Global-Advanced-Air-Mobility-Market-Size-Share-Worth-USD-68-1-Billion-by-2032-at-a-35-2-CAGR-Custom-Market-Insights-Analysis-Outlook-Leaders-Report-Trends-Forecast-Segmentat.html

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