Tax Tyranny: Crushing India's Retirement Dreams
Dhiraj Patra
Cloud-Native (AWS, GCP & Azure) Software & AI Architect | Leading Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence and MLOps Programs | Generative AI | Coding and Mentoring
I was calculating for a friend about his investment in an apartment in Bengaluru outskirts.
To calculate the profit made by the apartment owner, we'll need to consider the following:
Initial Investment and Current Value
Profit Calculation
To calculate the profit made from the appreciation in value:
Profit = Current Market Price - Initial Purchase Price = ?60 lakh - ?22 lakh = ?38 lakh
Rental Income
To calculate the total rental income earned over the last 10 years, assuming an average annual rent increase of 7.5% (midpoint of 5-10%):
Initial monthly rent (assumed for calculation purposes): ?15,000 (actual initial rent not provided) Current monthly rent: ?20,000
Average annual rent: ?180,000 (calculated using initial and current rent for simplicity)
Total rental income over 10 years: ?18,00,000
Total Profit
Total Profit = Profit from Appreciation + Total Rental Income = ?38 lakh + ?18 lakh = ?56 lakh
The apartment owner has made a profit of approximately ?56 lakh over the 12 years.
To calculate the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the apartment's value:
CAGR = (End Value / Beginning Value)^(1 / Number of Years) - 1 = (?60,00,000 / ?22,00,000)^(1 / 12) - 1 ≈ 0.094 or 9.4%
The CAGR of the apartment's value over the 12-year period is approximately 9.4%.
To calculate the CAGR of the total returns (capital appreciation + rental income), we'll need to calculate the total returns first:
Total Returns = Capital Appreciation + Total Rental Income = (?60,00,000 - ?22,00,000) + ?18,00,000 = ?38,00,000 + ?18,00,000 = ?56,00,000
Then, we'll calculate the CAGR:
CAGR = (1 + (Total Returns / Initial Investment))^(1 / Number of Years) - 1 = (1 + (?56,00,000 / ?22,00,000))^(1 / 12) - 1 ≈ 0.112 or 11.2%
The CAGR of the total returns (capital appreciation + rental income) over the 12 years is approximately 11.2%.
Now we will think of my other friend to keep his current total investment at 20% CAGR. Which is normal in current years in India from Mutual Funds or related investments.
To calculate the future value of your investments, we'll use the formula:
Future Value = Present Value * (1 + CAGR)^Number of Years
Mutual Fund (MF) Investment
Future Value (MF) = ?1,32,00,000 * (1 + 0.20)^10 ≈ ?9,39,19,919
But if he purchases real estate for his living and saves rental.
Real Estate + Rental Investment
Future Value (Real Estate + Rental) = ?1,32,00,000 * (1 + 0.12)^10 ≈ ?3,59,19,575
After 10 years:
To calculate the total rent paid over 10 years, considering the 7.5% annual increase:
Total Rent Calculation
Total rent paid over 10 years ≈ ?43,39,041
Now, let's subtract this amount from the future value of the Real Estate + Rental investment:
Future Value (Real Estate + Rental) - Total Rent Paid = ?3,59,19,575 + ?43,39,041 = ?4,02,58,616
Here we have calculated the real estate appreciation + rental needs to pay if not buy to live in his own house.
Now we will calculate for LTCG Tax in India.
Let's recalculate the Capital Gain Tax based on the updated information.
Since the sale is made after July 23, 2024, the LTCG tax rate applicable is 12.5% without indexation benefit.
Long-Term Capital Gain (LTCG) Calculation
Tax Calculation
Net Receipt After Tax
You will receive approximately ?8,38,45,555 in hand after paying the long-term capital gains tax.
However, India is a multiple TAX country. So if you are paying high TDS + CESS already then just remember Govt will continue to increase the LTCG TAX.
Let's recalculate the Capital Gain Tax based on the updated LTCG tax rate of 30%.
Long-Term Capital Gain (LTCG) Calculation
Tax Calculation
Net Receipt After Tax
If the LTCG tax rate becomes 30% after 10 years, you will receive approximately ?6,97,41,443 in hand after paying the long-term capital gains tax.
Therefore, you will lose.
Difference = ?7,93,08,616 (Real Estate + Rental) - ?6,97,41,443 (Real Estate + Rental after 30% LTCG tax) = ?95,67,173
If you don't buy real estate and stay on rent, you would be losing approximately ?95,67,173.
So summary of all the above calculations is in India if you high TAX payer and invest your money in your retirement plan. Then most probably after your income stops you will end up in a footpath as homeless due to Govt multiple taxes and cess.
That is why people love to keep their money in gold and real estate. Due to this India continues to have one of the lowest per capita incomes and must backwards in industry and investment than China in coming years.
Please note that this calculation is for illustrative purposes only. For personalized financial advice, consult with a qualified investment professional.