TASMANIAN ELECTION 2021: Who will win based on AI?

Data doesn’t lie. 

We know that our data and methods are better than polls, particularly for elections - we accurately predicted seven of nine battleground states in the US Presidential election in November 2020. 

So, in the last 48 hours, the Mavens came together again to test ourselves with the Tasmanian State Election 2021.

We analysed petabytes of the world’s online content with the power of AI to uncover the story of who the market (Tasmania) favours as the leader of their state. 

As with this line of work, it hasn’t been easy - but I’ve given it my best shot.

Data is a science. Testing our own beliefs and assumptions is part of this high-performance sport. 

Here we go. I’ll walk you through my structured thinking. Are you ready to enter the mind of the Data Whisperer…?

Will the incumbent Liberal Premier Peter Gutwein retain government, and hold a majority government?

Foreword

The government called an early election, relying on the polling data that says Gutwein handled COVID-19 very well and assumes the market will reward him for it. This was a similar strategy that proved successful for Queensland’s Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and WA’s Labor Premier Mark McGowan, to secure another term...the latter being a landslide victory.

Tasmanians - all 394,432 registered to vote - will exercise their voice today, 1 May, 2021. Small numbers when you compare them to the 239 million who were eligible to vote for Trump or Biden in the US. So, let’s see how sharp Maven Data methods are with this significantly smaller market. 

If Peter Gutwein wins, it will be the 3rd consecutive Liberal term - a record-breaking moment.

What story is the data telling us about Tasmania?

First checkpoint: what do the polls say?

I’m curious, because you know what I think about polls? They’re biased and have not been accurate with predicting election results in the last 6 years. The polls are saying that the Liberal Party lead Labor 52% to 27%, with the Greens on 14% (ABC: 26 April 2021). That’s a significant lead and represents an expectation of a majority government.

Now here’s a thought….if Labor and the Greens were friends, that would be quite interesting but unfortunately, they are far from friends. Why can’t we all just get along, push our differences aside and govern for the people? Nice thought, huh?

Second checkpoint: what does the media say?

There’s talk of keeping a majority government as a reason to retain Gutwein. There’s talk of successful COVID-19 management being a real winner for Gutwein. There’s so much talk...and so many opinions.

How do we distill the truth from the noise and what do Tasmanians care about in this election?

There are standard election issues such as jobs, leadership, economy, climate change, and now COVID-19.

There are also state issues such as homelessness, health, housing affordability, and social housing.

There are also electorate-specific issues such as local crime, forestry, salmon aquaculture, pokies, and privatisation of Hydro Tasmania.

These are a sample of the 22 issues we tested to determine what people deeply care about. These issues are voter considerations and we also measured how people feel about these issues. We use big data and AI to measure both, at speed. We did all this within 48 hours.

Emotions drive behaviour. Strong emotions change behaviour. 

What are your thoughts and opinions at this stage?

Will Tasmanians retain Gutwein for perceived strength and stability in jobs, economy, leadership (Liberals have governed the last 7 years), and COVID-19?

Or are Tasmanians ready for a change to focus on social and community issues represented by Rebecca White, leader of the opposition (Labor), or environmental issues represented by Cassy O’Connor, leader of the Greens Party? 

Are you confused? I would be too, without the data. 

Just a quick recap for those new to the Maven Data method in how we use data to predict trends and future market behaviour:

Our dataset is the open internet, petabytes of content from websites, blogs, and social media (outside firewalls), where people engage online every day in the privacy of their screens. By analysing millions of behavioural interactions and measuring over 400 emotions using natural language processing, we test narratives (issues) and assess what people deeply care about, what forms part of culture, and how do people feel. Overall, 93% of narratives are ‘noise’ and not important, 5% are classified as Timeless (relevant, engaging, and part of the culture and society), and 2% are classified as Transformational (Timeless + dynamic and moving), which are the ones to watch.

So I’m going to remove the blindfold now. I share the path I see for one party to lead to victory. Follow me as we navigate the oceans of data that surround us. 

STEP 1: WHAT ARE THE TOP ISSUES BY SIGNIFICANCE?

The chart below shows an empirical assessment of the issues (narratives) tested in Tasmania in rank order of significance. 

• Homelessness is the biggest issue
• Leadership, jobs, and housing affordability are the next order issues
• Health crisis and health follow next
• Climate change and COVID-19 have relatively low significance - this was a surprise to me.

Prediction note:

COVID-19 is not an issue to Tasmanians. Gutwein should not pin an election win on this assumption.

STEP 2: WHAT ARE THE TOP ISSUES BY EMOTIONAL RESPONSE?

The chart below shows an empirical assessment of the issues (narratives) tested in Tasmania in rank order of emotional response - remember we are looking for a strong emotional response to drive a change in behaviour (i.e. voting behaviour). 

• Health crisis and homelessness have the highest emotional response
• Housing affordability, jobs and social housing are high
• Climate change, COVID-19, and health are medium
• Leadership is low.

Prediction note:

Leadership ranks low and while it had high significance, I assess that leadership is not a voting issue in this election.

Do we tend to stick with the same leaders during a crisis? Has Tasmania experienced COVID-19 as a crisis? Whatever the reason, Tasmanians appear benign on leadership. Gutwein as the incumbent leader is not an advantage.

STEP 3: OVERALL TOP ISSUES THAT WILL DRIVE VOTER CHOICE

Combining the analysis from 1 and 2, we arrive at the top issues that will determine voter preference in this election. In rank order:

1. Homelessness
2. Housing affordability
3. Health crisis
4. Jobs.

STEP 4: HOW DOES GUTWEIN AND WHITE RATE IN THESE ISSUES? TIME TO SPAR IN THE RING.

#1 Homelessness

This is sad data to see. Numbers show that 3,900 families are on social housing waitlists, a rise of 65% in 6 years, with urgent cases waiting longer than 15 months for a home. For a relatively small population of 541,000 this is alarming and has been exacerbated by the impact of COVID-19 on the economy. 

We assess the narrative of Gutwein and homelessness as TRANSFORMATIONAL (remember - 2% of gold nuggets). This is a powerful insight and one where I will place more weight on my prediction. It means that this issue is deeply relevant and important to society and dynamic. Things are going to be shifting and the market is ready for change. Rebecca White and Labor have been very vocal about this issue. This could represent the change the market is looking for.

The content that shapes this sentiment shows that Gutwein’s response to this issue has received strong negative sentiment. The Emotion Wheel below shows the dominant-negative sentiment alongside a high proportion of expectation - the market has been eager to see what Gutwein would do but they have only been disappointed. The last time I saw this profile was the story of AMP during the 2018 Royal Commission into Banking (see my previous work, We are on the Precipice of a Revolution). It ended in customers leaving the bank, along with $5.5 billion in cash. 

Prediction note:

Gutwein is not favoured on homelessness, which is the top election issue. I expect to see seats lost to Labor in the electorates where this issue is critical, in the south - Clark and Franklin. 

#2 Housing affordability

#3 Health crisis

#4 Jobs

To save me from writing up a thesis and bore you with endless charts and tables, here’s something that I prepared earlier. 

The summary below shows a clear view of how Gutwein and White fare across each issue according to emotional response intensity. I have conveniently annotated the top four issues.

From this summary I see that White wins on the key issues that matter. The data says that White has a strong chance to win a lot more seats than expected. For the issues where Gutwein is favoured by emotional response, these issues are not the top issues for this election.

Note that emotional response can be positive or negative. In the context of an issue like social housing, where Gutwein rates higher in emotional response, this issue shows negative sentiment towards Gutwein. Nonetheless, in terms of significance, this issue rates very low. 

The same story goes for Gutwein concerning climate change and COVID-19. 

Gutwein is not favoured in the issues that matter to this election.

Prediction note:

Liberals will lose more seats (than expected) to Labor. White has successfully connected to the market on the top issues that matter to Tasmanians in this election. Some of these issues are statewide, and some are specifically important to certain electorates.

We also note that Cassy O'Connor, leader of the Greens Party is also TRANSFORMATIONAL. This suggests that the Greens will also pick up more seats from the Liberals.

STEP 5: ANYTHING ELSE TO ADD BEFORE WE CALL IT?

The story doesn’t end here. There’s more.

Briefly….some more nuggets that continue the story.

The analysis above indicates that the Liberals are at risk of losing a lot more seats than expected to Labor. 

If you’re at this point and still hold doubt with this view, then here’s one final piece.

Let’s look at the sentiment towards Gutwein and the Liberal Party right now. Take a look at this.

This was the decider for me.

We analysed Misogyny in Tasmania and it was TRANSFORMATIONAL. See the Emotion Wheel on the left. Do you see red? INTENSE dislike and hate. Notice how it follows the profile for Misogyny in Australia - state and national sentiment are mirrored. 

This is not a good sign for Gutwein and the Liberals. Gutwein was also criticised for calling an election at a time when White is heavily pregnant, to which White responded...

...spoken like a boss.

FINAL WORD:

I predict Labor to gain more seats than expected and the data says that White has a real chance to win, potentially with a majority government. 

Either way, she’s still a boss.

Seats split: 

Polls say: Liberals 13 seats, Labor 7 seats, Greens and Independents 5 seats.   

Maven says: Liberals 9 seats, Labor 13 seats, Greens and Independents 3 seats.

Let’s see how we go. Whoever wins, I hope they address the issue of homelessness, housing affordability, and the health crisis. 

I hope you enjoyed this analysis. Comment and share - I am interested in your views and where we can take this method of election analysis into the 2022 Federal Election.

I'm going to get back to my weekend now.

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Elisa Choy is an Australian economist and data strategist with more than 20 years’ experience in utilising data to inform business strategy and growth. Her background in investment banking, corporate consulting, marketing, advanced analytics and retail provides her clients with uniquely tailored solutions that predict market trends. Her guiding principle is that change is nothing to fear, if guided by quality data insights. By utilising her unique analysis techniques, Elisa accurately predicted the winner of The Voice 2019 and 2020, MasterChef Australia 2020 and the US Presidential Election 2020. “As an economist, I see the interconnectivity of business and life, and tell stories from data that blends art and science, bridges creative with analytical, and bonds people with technology.”

You can follow Maven Data on LinkedIn, Twitter, Instagram and Youtube. 

Elisa acknowledges her Research Partners in this research:

Maven Data uses proven advanced analytics technologies to analyse market emotion and predict industry trends. Elisa partnered with Significance Systems which developed Earth.ai, a platform that identifies deep, underlying narratives and their key drivers, for any topic, in any language, over the open internet. The Australian company's founders, Darrell Berry and John Ricketts, were heralded by Forbes magazine as developing the idea of ‘social media’ back in 1994.