Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Tough Decisions: The Mindset That Matters

As shared by many, I’ve been feeling the weight of uncertainty in the entrepreneur ecosystem. Conversations are filled with frustration, concern, and, in some cases, outright panic. Business leaders, founders, and professionals are watching the economic landscape shift beneath them, struggling to understand what comes next and how to respond. I feel it too. The relentless cycle of trade wars, tariff threats, and global instability is exhausting—not just from a business perspective but from a mental and emotional standpoint.

I wanted to find a way to convey support—to share something that feels tangible, useful, and stabilizing in a time when so much feels out of our control. At the same time, writing about these topics is an outlet for me, a way to process what’s happening and frame a response that isn’t just reactive but deliberate, strategic, and resilient.

So, this article—and the ones to follow—are my way of offering a different perspective. A way to help leaders navigate these challenges with clarity, adaptability, and solid decision-making strategies. Because while we can’t change global trade policies overnight, we can change how we respond to them.

Why Reactionary Thinking is the Real Threat

In times of crisis, I’ve seen two distinct types of leadership emerge. Some leaders panic, cut costs, retreat, or lash out at external forces, convinced they have no control. Others take a moment to pause, assess, and explore their options. In her book The Scout Mindset, Julia Galef introduces the idea of thinking like a scout rather than a soldier—approaching challenges with curiosity instead of defensiveness. This mindset shift is crucial for leaders navigating uncertainty and making strategic decisions -now more than ever. ?

The Soldier Mindset sees the world as a battlefield. When under threat, they dig in, defend aggressively, or pre-emptively attack. They operate from a place of fear and rigidity, assuming that the best course of action is to stick with what they know and resist change.

The Scout Mindset, on the other hand, operates from a place of curiosity and awareness. Instead of making assumptions, they gather information, analyze patterns, and adopt a curiosity approach to looking for opportunities that others may miss. They don’t assume they already know the best move. They explore the full landscape before making decisions and created a strategy to move forward.

The back-and-forth of trade policies creates instability and overwhelm. That’s the purpose. Supply chains are disrupted. Markets become unpredictable. Business strategies that made sense six months ago suddenly seem questionable. It’s tempting to react quickly—to tighten budgets, freeze hiring, and operate from a place of scarcity. But consider taking a pause.

When businesses become too rigid in their thinking, they often fail to recognize new opportunities emerging in the chaos. I’ve seen companies that immediately scaled back operations because they assumed their market would shrink—only to watch a competitor pivot into a new international space and dominate. The ones who adapt, not just defend, are the ones who emerge stronger.

What a Scout Mindset Looks Like in a Trade War

I’ve been encouraging the entrepreneurs I work with to take a wider view—to step back from the noise and really assess what’s happening. To consider a different perspective.

Rather than assuming that tariffs will crush your business, consider whether there are alternative supply chain strategies that could actually make you more competitive in the long run. Instead of reacting to market instability with fear, take a step back and look at where competitors might be making short-sighted moves—are there opportunities to position yourself more strategically while others are retreating? And rather than seeing every economic shift as a threat, ask yourself how these changes might be creating new gaps in the market—gaps that you could step into before anyone else does. Broaden your thinking, engage your team, think outside the box, brainstorm outrageous ideas. There is power in the Scout Mindset—an approach that creates opportunity to strategically reposition.

How to Shift from a Soldier to a Scout Mindset

The pressure to make quick decisions, to act fast, to prepare for the worst—it’s real. But before making any big decisions, try these steps:

First, pause. Create space between the uncertainty and your response. Consider that rushed decisions made in fear are rarely the right ones.

Second, challenge your assumptions. Ask yourself, What exactly is the threat, what kind of threat is it and do you have control over mitigating it. What data or perspectives are you missing?

Third, expand your view. What do you have control over? Where might new opportunities exist that weren’t obvious before? What moves could you make that could re-position you for success in the market. Challenge your beliefs about your industry. How do you know you are right about your assumptions? What's possible?

?

The Businesses That Survive This Moment Won’t Be the Fastest—They’ll Be the Best at Running on Moving Ground.

The reality is, this economic uncertainty isn’t going away anytime soon. We can’t control what policies will shift next or how global trade relationships will evolve. But we can control how we think about it and respond.

The businesses and leaders who make it through this moment won’t be the ones who necessarily react first. They’ll be the ones who navigate strategically, who stay open to change, and who recognize that uncertainty isn’t just a risk—it’s also an opportunity.

I’d love to hear from you. What shifts have you seen businesses make in response to economic uncertainty? Where have you seen the Scout vs. Soldier Mindset at play? What tactics have you employed to check your mindset. Are you a Scout or a Soldier?

Interested in learning more about Mindset? Here are a few resources:

Galef, Julia. The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don’t. Portfolio/Penguin, 2021.

For a deeper exploration of cognitive biases and decision-making strategies, visit ClearerThinking.org, a platform dedicated to improving reasoning and decision-making through interactive tools and resources.

?