Are the tariffs coming?

The Titanic was sailing the icy waters of the North Atlantic. Passengers toasted, oblivious to the lurking danger. Miles away, radio operators from other ships sent desperate messages: "Look out, icebergs ahead." But on the bridge of the Titanic, arrogance drowned out the warnings. "This ship is unsinkable," they boasted. Hours later, the "unsinkable" lay at the bottom of the ocean.

A few hours before Donald Trump's threat to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as of February 1, 2025, is carried out -or not-, the uncertainty is palpable. The measure, far from being a simple announcement by Trump, is a missile aimed at the heart of the trade order that has sustained the region's prosperity for decades.

The most repeated question in business meetings and political and financial circles in both countries is: Will the tariffs become a reality next Saturday? Are the tariffs really coming?

There are, it seems to me, two possible scenarios:

First, a new era with no rules. Trump decides to make good on his threat. With the stroke of a pen, he erases years of economic integration. The T-MEC becomes a dead letter. This is the most alarming scenario.

With the Trump administration, we have entered an era in which the rules of the international game seem to have evaporated. Only his unilateral policies matter—no respect for international treaties nor any value to multilateral documents. The only things that seem to matter are Trump's personal interests, ideological commitments, and particular world vision.

In this scenario, the imposition of these levies would mean a devastating blow to the economies of Mexico, Canada, and even the United States, with repercussions that would spread like ripples, affecting key sectors such as automotive, agriculture, and energy. Supply chains crumble. Inflation soars. And all for what? So Trump can brag to his supporters that he "put his neighbors in their place.

The second scenario is less catastrophic but just as telling. There is a possibility that this threat is actually a Trump-style negotiating tactic. Trump bluffs. He uses the threat of tariffs as bargaining leverage, hoping for concessions on key issues for his administration. It is the "art of the deal" taken to international diplomacy. As we saw in the recent clash with Colombia, the U.S. president has demonstrated a peculiar ability to use threats as a bargaining chip at the negotiating table.

In this context, tariffs become a card Trump is playing to pressure Mexico and Canada to give in on issues such as illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking (as he repeated to the media on Thursday). The February 1 deadline would not be a sentence but the start of a diplomatic poker game where Trump expects his neighbors to show their cards first.

True to his style, Trump has managed to get all eyes on him, turning an economic decision into a political spectacle of international scope.

What will be the scenario that comes true? For most analysts and decision-makers, the scenario in which Trump only uses the threat as a pressure weapon is practically the only possible. Imposing tariffs would be tantamount to "shooting himself in the foot" because of the damage to the U.S. economy and the inflation it would unleash in his country. This is true.

However, we cannot fail to understand that with Trump, the logic of decision-making seems to have become secondary. What matters is the spectacle, the perception of strength, and the cult of personality of the leader who, as we have already seen, can shake the system with a tweet.

The question is not whether we will hit the Trumpist iceberg but when and how it will hit us. We cannot afford the luxury of naivety. Suppose Mexico continues to believe that the T-MEC is "unsinkable." In that case, it will be making the same mistake that doomed the Titanic: ignoring the warnings of danger.

Because in this ocean of uncertainty, the only certainty is that Trump will remain Trump, which is more dangerous than any iceberg in the North Atlantic.

X: @solange_