Tariff Talk, Trade Wars and Market Outlook + A New Interview with Fidelity's Ilan Kolet
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What happened this week?
The stock market regained its footing after Monday’s DeepSeek mini-panic because Q4 earnings reports surpassed expectations, the dovish Fed paused, and robust economic growth remained relentless, the BEA having reported on Thursday that GDP had risen at an annual rate of 3.2% in Q4. More importantly, the market realized, after consideration, that DeepSeek could be a big positive for the proliferation of AI, which would boost productivity even more than originally expected.
Provincial Premiers have been responding through the evening united and resolute, with each crafting individual retaliation measures that will continue to unfold in the days ahead. Some measures already reflect limiting provincial procurement by American firms and removing the sale of U.S. alcohol, skewed to "red states" among some provinces.
Resilient U.S. Economy Supports Soft-Landing Narrative: The U.S. economy has shown resilience with strong GDP growth, declining unemployment rates, and robust consumer spending, supported by high deficit spending and optimism around Trump's tax cuts and deregulation, while markets remain unbothered by potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
There’s an old saying about not biting the hand that feeds you. Yet, in the latest chapter of economic self-sabotage, Canada finds itself at the mercy of an avoidable crisis—one that exposes just how vulnerable the country’s energy sector has become to political machinations and poor strategic planning. Enter Eric Nuttall, senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, who is sounding the alarm on the ramifications of tariffs and pipeline negligence.
The world is awash in energy ignorance. The December 2024 conversation between Ninepoint Partners’ Eric Nuttall and Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen pulls no punches in highlighting just how deeply detached market sentiment has become from energy reality.1 Oil demand is at all-time highs. Inventories are scraping historic lows. And yet, the prevailing narrative insists that oil prices are destined for perpetual stagnation—because, of course, the world’s newfound commitment to green energy has made crude obsolete overnight. If only that were true.
Gold continues to work. Year-to-date, the precious metal is up 3%, beating stocks. On a one-year basis, gold has gained more than 30%, making it one of the best performing asset classes (see Chart 1).
The only certainty in this noisy headline driven world is that by the time you read this, things may very well have changed. Then again, by the time you finish reading this note, things may have changed yet again. ?Even with this weekend’s announcements, the level of uncertainty remains high. Details on the response, then potential responses to responses, mean February is going to be bumpy.
The art of capital allocation is an unforgiving pursuit, where mistakes are penalized and only the nimblest investors survive. At Fidelity Investments' Vision 2025 event, January 22, 2025, portfolio managers Hugo Lavallée, Mark Schmel, and Dan Dupont1 took the stage to offer their candid assessments of the market landscape, reflecting on a year that defied logic, rewrote the playbook, and—if history is any guide—set the stage for another period of high-stakes decision-making.
US economic resilience should continue to serve as a favorable backdrop for investors in 2025, according to Ed Perks, Chief Investment Officer of Franklin Income Investors. This article explores the implications of this scenario on the equity and fixed income markets, highlighting specific areas that offer promising income opportunities in 2025.
A friend of mine was recently complaining to me about his neighbors.? There have apparently been disagreements centered on noise levels, sidewalk snow removal and the alleged leavings of the family dog. ?Civil discourse has given way to angry e-mails threatening to seek penalties from the village.
RGBM is the addition of a Canadian listed ETF to the successful family of U.S. Return Stacked?nbsp;ETFs. This follows the achievement of a major milestone in the U.S., surpassing $1 billion CAD in assets under management (AUM) in less than two years. ReSolve serves as portfolio manager to RGBM with ReSolve Global acting as portfolio sub-advisor. Each of LongPoint, ReSolve, ReSolve Global and Newfound are promoters of RGBM.
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RBC Capital Markets has promoted two London-based dealmakers to global roles as part of its strategy to expand market share in Europe. Ed Golder has been appointed as global co-head of power, utilities, and infrastructure investment banking, collaborating with Anthony Ianno in New York. Farid Dadashev has been named global co-head of metals and mining investment banking, working alongside Hugh Samson in Toronto. These promotions align with RBC's broader initiative to reorganize its investment banking division into global teams and double its market share in Europe through substantial investment.
BBGI Global Infrastructure, a London-listed investor in civic infrastructure, has agreed to a ￡1 billion takeover by the British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI), a Canadian pension fund. The cash offer of 147.5p per share reflects a 21% premium over BBGI's last closing price. BBGI's board supports the bid, citing the advantages of private ownership for the fund's growth. This move underscores the trend of listed infrastructure funds being acquired at premiums, given the significant discounts they often face.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Canada for allegedly restricting U.S. banks from operating within its borders. While U.S. banks are permitted to operate in Canada under the 1991 Bank Act, they must adhere to stringent regulatory requirements, including higher capital reserves. These regulations have contributed to the stability of Canada's banking sector, which has historically avoided bank failures. Following his remarks, Trump agreed to delay proposed tariffs on Canadian products and energy by 30 days, suggesting potential negotiations to resolve the dispute.
NEW EPISODE ?? The Insight is Capital Podcast ?? ???????????????? ???????????????????? ?????????????????? ???????? ????????Market uncertainty, rate cuts, U.S. exceptionalism, and a potential Canadian dollar shock—are we prepared for 2025? In this must-watch episode, Pierre Daillie sits down with Ilan Kolet, Institutional Portfolio Manager at Fidelity Investments, to dissect the most pressing questions investors and advisors are facing right now.
?? What happens if a 25% tariff is imposed on Canadian exports?
?? Is the Canadian dollar heading for a collapse?
?? Why are U.S. equities still the best game in town?
?? Have investors misunderstood the bond market?
?? Should portfolios brace for a new investment paradigm?
WATCH IT HERE
???? hashtag#TBT – The Investing Advantage You Didn’t Know You Had! ????Most people think big investors have all the power…but smaller investors actually have a secret edge ??Michael Robbins, Professor of Quantitative Investing at Columbia University, breaks down a surprising truth: big money can’t always play in the same markets you can. Micro-cap stocks? Pink sheets? Smaller investors can move nimbly where large institutions can’t. ??But here’s the catch: freedom comes with temptation. Without discipline, it’s easy to chase trends, jump from strategy to strategy, and sabotage your own returns.
??Want to learn how to leverage your small investor advantage? Hit play now and listen to the full episode ?? AdvisorAnalyst.com/podcast ! ??
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