SDC - Target Fixation

Self-driving cars are coming, but why not make the most of the journey?

The current debate around self-driving cars (SDC) is analogous to what those of us who have spent time in military aviation refer to as "Target Fixation." Simply put this means being so focused on the ultimate objective that one disregards all other priorities including not getting shot down, hitting the side of a mountain or other immovable object, or even flying right into the target itself.

Many in the media, the public and even in industry who should know better are suffering from target fixation in the context of SDCs these days. Rather than cite current and near terms benefits from Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) technology including adaptive cruise control, lane departure warning systems and many other safety and convenience enhancing features, there seems to be far more focus on when people will be able to summon a sharecar to their front door, send their vehicle to park itself, (safely) sleep in the driver's seat and even speculation as to how soon steering wheels will disappear.

Make no mistake, I am an unabashed admirer of what nuTonomy and Tesla Motors among many others are doing in paving the way for SDC technology as well as the potential to more fully develop the autonomous-connected-electric-and-shared (ACES) business model in conjunction with Solar City espoused in Elon Musk’s "Part Deux" over the summer. Likewise I am glad to see both Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies Inc. competing to undertake a long-overdue task of creating an entirely new, disruptive and more sustainable transportation mode for the 21st Century much as stagecoaches, canals, railroads, aviation and automobiles did in the 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th [and 20th] Centuries, respectively. These are critical ultimate goals—targets—whereby the transportation and technology industries must set their sights to ensure the further evolution of mobility. 

In the interim, however there must be the ability to both validate and monetize each of the incremental development steps to achieve that goal.  Whether ensuring return on the investment of private funding, justifying government expenditure in terms of public trust, or (ideally) doing both through a public-private partnership (PPP / P3) it is necessary to derive the maximum value along the way.

In the world of connected & autonomous vehicles (CAV), this is eminently achievable and indeed there is already tremendous support for new technology short of a fully driverless car across all demographics as shown by two major studies earlier this year. While younger people not surprisingly have a much higher degree of confidence in a completely self-driving vehicle per se as JD Power reports, Auto Connected Car almost concurrently found that drivers over 50 were very interested in ADAS in their next vehicle purchase to offset the physical infirmities of aging (something I appreciate myself, having turned 50 in May, as I pause here for a moment to clean my reading glasses).  By contrast, as an early 2017 update to this article a poll by the American Automobile Association (AAA) indicates that three out of four people in the US are apprehensive about riding in a fully self-driving car. Even as younger generations might naturally gravitate towards the fully autonomous ride just as many of them eschew getting the driver’s licenses that were once a rite of passage, the older generations with their much higher purchasing power and political leverage are clearly willing to put money (and votes) on the table right now that neither industry (nor government) dare ignore.

Moreover some of the first SDC advances might well come on not vehicles that consumers can buy, share or even ride in as much as those supporting the commercial logistics enterprises that are in many ways even more critical to the economy at all levels than retail automotive. A new report, "The State of Freight II" jointly developed by the American Association of State Highway & Transportation Officials (AASHTO) and the American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA) discusses needed public investment in freight infrastructure. It could hardly be timelier as the vision for public and private infrastructure investment under the 115th Congress and the Trump Administration emerges. Concurrent with that, there has been significant though far less headline-grabbing work related to connected and autonomous trucks by OTTO Motors [owned and funded by Uber] and Peloton Technology [backed by DENSO and Intel Capital among others] including a 120-mile autonomous beer run by the former recently.

Finally, even focus on the technology itself represents another form of target fixation, where the answer might not be in devices, vehicles and software so much as more sustainable business models themselves. For instance, just because we have developed the capacity to haul food, beverages and just about anything else to and from the ends of the earth doesn't mean we should do so at every opportunity. The efforts of local sourcing activities to provide quality in what we eat, drink, wear, and use right in our home communities—everything from hand knitted alpaca wool sweaters to 3D printed machine parts—will in many ways as much ensure better use of our logistics infrastructure and other resources right now as the eventual ability to send a self-driving truck halfway across country.

So to the entrepreneurs and futurists, please continue to dream big and aim high—but for all of us, it is essential to maintain situational awareness: Truly assess the total environment, identify all hazards (including that approaching mountain) and opportunities and make the most of what pre-SDC technology and practices are already bringing and will continue to offer long before that first driverless vehicle pulls up to our front door, or to the back of the nearest grocery store. 

#TranspoTech

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