Tank at your own risk

With the Stanley Cup finals starting tomorrow, I figured it's the perfect time to dive into another post on hockey, luck, and statistics.

This viral image has taken hockey-related social media channels by storm over the past few days. It shows logos of the NHL teams that, in the last 25 years, snagged the first overall draft pick and eventually won the Stanley Cup with that player on their roster. While it's touted as proof that tanking works, I see it as evidence that tanking is often foolish and more about drafting a marketable star than securing the Cup. Here's what's wrong with this narrative, three issues jump out immediately:

1. Survivorship bias: We are looking at the winners, but what about all those teams in the past 25 years who got the first overall pick and never won anything? It’s quite a list: Toronto, Devils, Islanders, Buffalo, Columbus, Atlanta, Blues (we may as well add Phoenix to this list; despite never going first overall, they had more than their fair share of top-5 picks)...

2. A lack of specifics: since this image is not concerned with a particular #1 draft pick, but any #1 pick and not any particular year, but any year of their NHL career (as long as they remain with the team that drafted them), the statistical odds of these two requirements coinciding are not low (it’s a phenomenon no different from the one why you often run into the people from your hometown when traveling abroad). A first overall pick more often than not is the face of the franchise who stays with the team for many years; however, is his impact on the team performance consistently the highest all throughout those years? Would Tampa (who drafted Stamkos first overall a while back) win the cup without Kuch and Vasy (who they drafted years later)? Would the Avs win the Cup without Makar and Rantanen? Was it just Crosby or Crosby, Malkin and Fleury who brought 3 cups to Pens? What is Patrick Kane without Jonathan Toews? McDavid is not even the best player on his team in this year’s playoffs…

3. The alternatives: let’s look at some other players who were drafted in each of the years the teams from this picture “tanked” for their first overall pick:

• 2005 – the year of Crosby, some alternatives included Jonathan Quick and Anze Kopitar (both won two cups for the Kings), Carey Price (reached the cup finals with Montreal)
• 2007 – the year of Kane, other options were Logan Couture, PK Subban, Ryan McDonagh (won two cups with Tampa and reached the finals once with the Rangers), Jamie Benn (reached the finals once with Dallas)
• 2008 – the year of Stamkos, we had Drew Doughty (won 2 cups with the Kings), Braden Holtby and John Carlson (both won the cup with the Capitals), Roman Josi, Erik Karlsson, Pietrangelo (won the cup with the Blues and Vegas)… by the way, is this the best defense class of all-time?
• ?2013 – the year of MacKinnon, we had Barkov at #2 (reached the cup finals twice with Florida), Jake Guentzel (won the cup with the Pens), Seth Jones
• ?2015 – the year of McDavid, Eichel went #2 (won the cup with Vegas), but you also had Marner, Aho, Kaprizov, Rantanen (won the cup with the Avs). In the interest of time, I will ignore the times Oilers “tanked” for Nugent-Hopkins, Tylor Hall and Yakupov (yes, this team has been in the state of permanent “tanking” for most of its recent history), but I will just say that in those years they did not draft Kucherov, Vasilevskiy, Kuznetsov, Mark Stone, Filip Forsberg, Johnny Gaudreau and many many other guys who are now the faces of their respective franchises…

There are always other worthy options available and, as history shows, they win no less.

The formula for winning the Cup never changes as long as the salary cap remains in place. Regardless of the draft-pick numbers, it is always a combination of:

• Established high performers (aka “the stars of the team”)
• Impactful up-and-coming players: either future star players who are still on their rookie contracts or high-impact players on bridge-deals or in the final year of their contracts. Both groups are set to command higher salaries when their contracts are up for renewal, and the greater their future value, the more competitive edge your team likely has at present.
• Quality role players (3rd and 4th liners)
• Quality goalie

Every Cup-winning team loses a significant chunk of players from groups #2 and #3 within 2 years after winning the Cup as those contracts come up for renewal. Capitals lost Holtby, Beagle, Niskanen and Burakovsky because they had to keep Carlson and Kuznetsov. Avs lost Burakovsky and Kadri to re-sign Nichushkin. Blues went to lose Pat Maroon, Pietrangelo and Jake Allen. Etc.

Under the salary cap, drafting a quality player (it doesn’t matter if it’s first overall pick or 135th overall) simply gives the given team an edge for the duration of his rookie contract. But without other working parts any attempts at winning the Cup are doomed. So, tank at your own risk, so to speak.

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