A Tale of Two Years in 2020

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…”

Charles Dickens

A Tale of Two Cities

During my introduction at a speaking engagement with a group of young Washington, D.C. real estate professionals in early March 2020, the host presented me with a “gag” gift of 10 N95 masks.

It was a “gag” at that time since the COVID-19 pandemic seemed like it was far away in China and Italy but certainly not here in the United States. The audience was all in on the “joke” and laughed when he presented it to me.

In late February, I prepared a presentation to kick off our “2030: The Age of Responsive Real Estate” report that began with a video about the state of the commercial real estate industry. That video was awash in optimism about capital flows, the economy, politics and the prospects for the year ahead. The video ended with the tag line “Bring on 2020”. Be careful what you wish for.

It turned out the “gag” wasn’t the N95 masks; it was that the 2020 video’s unbridled optimism was more than just a bit off base. Later that night in my home state of Maryland, Gov. Larry Hogan declared a state of emergency after confirming Maryland’s first three COVID cases.

Needless to say – our outlook and timeline for the years ahead had to be adjusted.

The only other time in U.S. history that I can compare with what is happening today is the tragic aftermath of 9/11 and how it profoundly changed our sense of security of being thousands of miles away from the closest geopolitical threat before it came right to our doorstep. In my opinion, the COVID-19 pandemic will have longer lasting consequences than 9/11. Despite the tremendous tragedy of 9/11, it brought America together. COVID-19 has torn us apart and I fear it will only drive us further into the land of two Americas.  

Looking back at 2020, I have to ask myself if it’s OK to take off my dark glasses and look at some of the good and, dare I say it, funny things that happened. Well, if you know me well enough, I’m going to take them off for a few minutes and remember some of the good things about 2020.

From January 1 to early March, it was the best of times. From then on it was the worst of times. And so, my annual review is the tale of the two years of 2020. Make no mistake, 2020 was 99% tragedy but there was 1% comedy or at least some things to make you smile. My 2020 memo is designed to find green shoots, rays of light or at least 1% comedy in what was the worst year for 99% of the people on Earth. I hope some of this makes you smile.  

The Stats 2020:

·        52,700 miles traveled (all travel ceased on March 5, 2020).

·        21 cities visited.

·        291 stage/Zoom/client events.

·        15 group training sessions on “how to speak on a Zoom call” (over 10,000 people).

·        150+ one-on-one public speaking training sessions.

·        17 U.S. and foreign “flash” calls.

·        41 episodes of “The Weekly Take”.

·        2,199 cups of Dunkin’ coffee (the one and only one thing that did not change from my daily routine in 2020 was visiting Dunkin’ every single day during the pandemic (this estimate is probably low).

To get a sense of scale, this is what 2019 looked like…

The Stats 2019:

·        174,720 miles traveled.

·        57 cities visited.

·        169 stage/client gigs.

·        1,922 cups of Dunkin’ coffee.

From the stats, there are a few noticeable differences between 2020 and 2019. First is my amount of travel. January and February 2020 were very busy (two EU trips), but my travel for the entire year was down by two-thirds. There was a sizeable increase in the number of events I participated in: 291 stage/Zoom/client meetings in 2020 vs. 169 in 2019 in addition to Zoom training and one-on-one sessions and the production of 41 episodes of The Weekly Take. In short, I got a lot more done in 2020 than I did in any other year of my career. But by getting things done, was I more productive? I’ve had a grand total of two client lunches since March 5. As I discussed with Moody’s Global Chief Economist Mark Zandi on one of my recent podcasts, I can’t fax you a pastrami sandwich from Katz’s Deli in Manhattan, which means that our meetings together just won’t be as good.    

Now a good pastrami sandwich does not itself make a good meeting (though it doesn’t hurt), but in the absence of face-to-face encounters I lost something that can’t be quantified. I lost the essence of why the most valuable human interaction must be in person: the ability to look someone in the eye, to read the audience’s body language, to know if you are effectively communicating or not. In short, I gained efficiency, but I lost productivity. I wasn’t as good in 2020 as I was in 2019, despite the increase in output. This is why I believe that the work-from-home (WFH) phenomenon of 2020 has created a false idol.  

Beyond its important function of safety during the pandemic, WFH has been put on a pedestal by many business leaders to save money by leasing less office space. It also has brought legitimate joy to people who want to spend less time commuting and more time with their families. When the heat of the moment is over later this year (though the early ’80s song “Heat of the Moment” by Asia will live forever), I see CEOs and workers snapping back to the understanding that the office is essential. WFH has a role, as do other forms of the “fluid” or “agile” workplace, but it cannot substitute for eating a pastrami sandwich with your colleagues or clients.   

Now for the highlights and the lowlights of 2020.

The Lowlights:  

The entire year of 2020 after early March. But enough of that for now.  

The Highlights (pre-March):

Belfast, Ireland

If you didn’t know it, the Titanic was built in Belfast and the city has a museum in its honor. The Belfast market overview event reminded me that I turned 50 in 2020, as I was planning to go back to Ireland in the summer to celebrate over golf and, uh, hanging out at places other than the Titanic museum. So, I have now decided not to turn 50 until this year so I can visit Ireland properly. I’m here standing in the Titanic museum because (a) I was there and (b) my team would not allow me to show a video of me singing in an Irish pub that night. If I knew what was to become of 2020, I would have spent more time hanging out and singing in Belfast. Look out in 2021, Ireland!

Warsaw, Poland

Warsaw was the site of my No. 1 “Where’s Waldo” posting of 2020 on LinkedIn (over 30,000 hits).

Warsaw is a city on the rise and I believe will be followed by many of its other former Eastern bloc cities, including Budapest, as investors seek yield. As a Jewish guy, I had several moments of reflection as I walked the streets of Warsaw and saw the many monuments to those who came before me and, tragically, never made it out. The Warsaw Rising Museum is located on the site of the famous Warsaw Ghetto. The actual ghetto is long gone, so I looked up to see the same sky as they had seen during their World War II uprising. What I saw was hope for the city’s future in some of the great people I met and real estate that I inspected.

Buffalo, New York

Visiting with my friends in Buffalo on my second to last in-person gig of the year, I was able to teach at the University of Buffalo (one of ten schools where I taught in 2020, including the University of Southern California, Ohio State, Indiana University, Georgetown, Touro, Portland State and New York University) and present to roughly 150 of our clients and colleagues at a cool microbrewery downtown. I then sampled some of the local flavors. What I saw in Buffalo is what I see in a lot of other older/post-industrial American cities: opportunity. The opportunity for Buffalo is based on its proximity to nearby Toronto. I took a car service from Buffalo to Toronto for what would be my last gig of the year. Like San Antonio with Austin, like Belfast with Dublin and like Laverne with Shirley, great cities and comedies always come in pairs. Buffalo’s prospects for long-term growth are tied to greater links with Toronto. And the wings really are better in Buffalo!

Madrid, Spain

Proving once again that anything that can be done can be done better, my friends and colleagues in Madrid led by my friend Adolfo Ramirez-Escuerdo had the best market overview presentation I have ever attended. If I’m an authority on anything, it is what constitutes a good market overview. In addition to having a stand-up comedian serve as the master of ceremonies, they had a heavy metal band playing before, during and after the event. As this was a corporate event, when the band started rocking out to a combination of Guns N’ Roses, Aerosmith and Metallica, 99% of the audience dressed in business suits looked like they just saw a ghost. I and the three people sitting next to me, on the other hand, looked at one another and said, “the hell with it, I’m getting up and dancing.” In a year like 2020, I wish I had danced some more and I’m damn glad that I did in both Madrid and Belfast!  

The Highlights (post March 4): 

PSR Year Two

This was my second full year teaching public speaking to our colleagues (my “public speaking rock stars” or PSR program). I had two great classes of professionals, but then things got hairy after March 5. I made more than 65 presentations in April alone to clients and colleagues and during this time I saw what people were doing right and wrong on these Zoom calls. So, I decided to pivot and help not just my PSR students but others in the company on “how to speak on a Zoom call.” It exploded from there into teaching over 15,000 of my CBRE colleagues (and many of my clients). The highlight was my separate presentations to all of CBRE’s Diversity and Inclusion groups, including the Women’s Network, African American Networking Group (AANG), Hispanics Organized to Leverage our Advantage (HOLA) and the Rising Professionals Organization (for which I’m the Executive Sponsor).

The cherry on the cake was the Abilities group, CBRE’s organization that caters to our colleagues with different types of disabilities. I was reminded regularly of the how the words of Winston Churchill during the Blitz of World War II were as powerful as any weapon. I also used Queen Elizabeth’s COVID speech as the intro to many of my presentations to both bring inspiration (as she specifically compared COVID to the Blitz) and teach the power of words.      

Biggest “Did I Really Do That” Moment of the Year

Politics was one of the most important topics of the year. To help our clients understand the impacts of the rapidly evolving situation, I was fortunate enough to interview political analyst Larry Sabato. He was in high demand and given that I was interviewing him in front of 4,000 of my colleagues and clients, I put a lot of preparation into the event. Like many of you, my Mom is my biggest fan. This may shock many of you, but her opinion of me is even higher than my own. Given the universal applicability of Larry’s content, I was a good son and invited my mother to the event. Little did I know that the link I sent to her was unique to me. As a result, my mother joined the call and could be heard throughout the event, bringing back memories of my teenage years. “MOM! HANG UP THE PHONE!!!”

Best Interview of the Year: Paula Campbell Roberts

My friend and colleague Kevin Aussef, CBRE’s COO of Investment Properties, invited me to the virtual CBRE Investment Properties forum. I invited Paula Campbell Roberts, Managing Director at KKR, and for 45 minutes she rocked the house with give and take (and good humor) in front of about 500 of our colleagues. Looking forward to our next debate in person!  

The Biggest Highlight: The Weekly Take

Like a Phoenix rising from the ashes, there is always some good to come out of calamity. That good in 2020 for me was The Weekly Take: CBRE’s podcast that was launched in March with my interview of industry legend Darcy Stacom. We were able to produce 41 episodes with C-Suite executives throughout the industry and some of the senior most leaders of CBRE. The Weekly Take was recognized as one of the “15 must-listen industry podcasts ” by Forbes Magazine when it was barely six months old. The key to the show wasn’t just the great guests and the fact that we tried not to take ourselves too seriously (here are our “top song references” on the show in 2020); it was the tremendous team put together to produce our podcast. I want to specifically thank CBRE’s terrific teams in marketing (Benji Baer, Teresa Bosso, Bradley Werner and Jennifer Morgan), communications (Patric Dolan and Steve Iaco), research (Richard Barkham and Julie Whelan), our outside producers and writers at Foglight Entertainment (Evan Kanew, Gregg Backer and Travis Stewart) and the guy who takes the cake as the driving force of getting it done (Brian Reed) on my team, who gets the gold star for 2020. We’ll never be Paul Harvey in our story telling, but we will keep trying to get there.

Let’s end by a quote from John Irving in The World According to Garp as played by my public speaking hero, the late great Robin Williams, in the movie of the same name, which reminds me of 2020 (represented by the house) and my outlook for 2021:

“We’ll take the house. Honey, the chances of another plane hitting this house are astronomical. It’s been pre-disastered. We’re going to be safe here.”

Happy New Year all. Looking forward to 2021 (look on the bright it can’t be worse ??).