A Tale of Two Cities

Charles Dickens' masterpiece A Tale of Two Cities, published in 1859, is set in Paris and London just before and during the French Revolution. Similarly to that novel, the key for the next elections to the European Parliament may lie in two other cities in Central and Eastern Europe: Budapest and Bucharest.

These two cities, impressive in their history, their architectural beauty and their cultural wealth, are the bastion of two notable political forces for the next electoral event: Fidesz and Alian?a pentru Unirea Romanilor (AUR). The first is already a colossus of the political conservative right in the West, and after Fidesz's exit in 2021 from the European People's Party , it looks now towards the ECR Party & ECR Group in the European Parliament as its next destination. As for the second, it also has his sight set on the same European party, which would make them allies.

There is only one problem under this scenario: both parties detest each other, as do their respective countries for historical reasons and, fundamentally, territorial claims.

Polls give AUR 12 MEPs, while Fidesz would reach 14 MEPs. In other words, despite the abysmal distance that currently separates these two political formations—since one is a government party and the other is just another player in its country's political opposition— in Europe they would have similar weight. Likewise, the two would have a similar outlook in terms of alliances. While Fidesz appears to have the unconditional support of VOX , everything points to the fact that AUR will have Meloni's Fratelli at its side, who in turn also has a budding rivalry with Orbán to see which of the two is crowned king of the European conservatives for the next EU term.

This possible tension is of great importance. Both are Prime Ministers in their respective countries, Hungary begins its presidency of the Council of the European Union in July, and Meloni already leads Fratelli's list for the European elections.

Fidesz coming into the ECR Group in the European Parliament will probably mean the Finnish and Swedish conservatives leaving it, as they are very opposed to the alleged closeness that Orbán has with Putin. Furthermore, AUR has more allies than Fidesz in the other major EU conservative party—in this case, eurosceptic rather than reformist— Identity and Democracy; historic domain of Marine Le Pen, where Salvini's Lega (very close to AUR) is also a strong political force, and ID will be Partido CHEGA 's destination. In short, even though AUR is much smaller than Fidesz by every measure, it will be a very desirable partner for many in the EU ecosystem.

For all of the above, it is essential that, without giving up their national interests, the conservatives of Hungary and Romania raise the same flag in Brussels, under the threat of conservative civil war if this does not happen. Something that would be disastrous in a term in which the patriotic, pro-family, conservative forces, defenders of a Christian Europe, will be able to hold their ground and even push back a globalist social democratic political majority that seeks to dilute the nations of Europe into an identity-less mass.

This case also points to a possible paradox: conservatives are generally staunch defenders of their countries and their national interests. The new right is a patriotic right. However, given the abundance of competing national interests, it will be difficult to achieve an international (or European) conservative order. And this may prevent a true united front from being presented in the face of the threats that loom over the postulates this new right defends throughout the West.

Some of these questions will be answered on June 9, when these two cities and many others meet in the European elections and a new phase of negotiations and EU Parliament groups formation begins.

News

Over the last two weeks, and because of the importance of the next EU elections, #Fortius' team, led by our CEO, Juan ángel Soto Gómez , has been in Bucharest and Budapest participating in several conferences and meeting with clientes, political actors and civil society organisations.

Juan A. Soto as speaker at the Make Europe Great Again conference, organised by the Institutul de Studii Politice Conservatoare Mihai Eminescu. Bucharest, Romania.

Juan A. Soto as panelist at the Ludovika Festival, organised by the University of Public Service. Budapest, Hungary.

Juan A. Soto participating at an illegal immigration panel organised by the Migration Research Institute (MRI) (Mathias Corvinus Collegium - MCC). Budapest, Hungary.

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