A Tale of Three Sticks: How the Hockey Stick Can Change Life—And the World
Eugene Toh
Empowering Lives Through Storytelling | Corporate Leader in Governance | Chairperson at Methodist Welfare Services | Assistant Chief Executive at Energy Market Authority
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How do we predict the future? Whether in our careers, skill-building, or major life decisions, we often look at past patterns to guess what comes next. But is life really that predictable?
The Cane Stick: Effort Equals Results
When I was much younger, I thought life worked like a cane stick—a straight-line trajectory. It could go in any direction, but the equation was simple: effort in, results out.
It was just like studying for an exam. The more I studied, the higher my scores. If I put in more hours, I learned more. If I followed the right steps and worked hard, I would move forward in a straight, predictable path.
For a while, this belief held true. Hard work brought steady improvement. But then, things started to change.
The Boomerang Effect: The Law of Diminishing Returns
As I matured, I realized that not everything in life followed a straight path. Sometimes, more effort did not always lead to more progress.
I first noticed this when I overstudied for an exam. I could be doing well already, but I just wanted to go for an A-plus, so I doubled down—reviewing my notes repeatedly, convinced that cramming in extra knowledge would give me an advantage.
Instead, I ended up mentally exhausted, and it backfired. My mind went blank on concepts I had mastered days earlier. I had overworked myself to the point where it actually hurt my performance.
This was the boomerang effect—where effort reaches a point of diminishing returns. Sometimes, working too hard does not just slow progress, it sets you back.
But then, I discovered something else. There are moments in life where progress seems stagnant, until something clicks—and everything accelerates.
The Hockey Stick Effect: The Power of Breakthroughs
Some progress remains invisible for a long time, even when you are working hard. Then, suddenly, a breakthrough happens, and everything skyrockets.
I remember when I was 16, struggling with organic chemistry. The symbols and equations did not make sense. I could memorize reactions, but I did not truly understand them.
Then, one day, it clicked.
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