A Tale of Guard of Honour and Geopolitical Ambiguities - Somalia President Going with the Flow!!!

When the President of Somalia inspects a guard of honour organized by the Ethiopian Navy, it raises a host of questions. Not least among them is the striking irony of a landlocked country like Ethiopia organizing a naval parade—an act that might seem aspirational, symbolic, or even audacious. What does this spectacle signify? And, more importantly, what might Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed hope to achieve with such theatrics?

Ethiopia’s Maritime Dreams

Ethiopia’s lack of direct access to the sea since Eritrea’s independence in 1993 has been a significant geopolitical constraint. The Ethiopian Navy, reestablished in recent years, symbolizes Abiy’s ambitions to project influence beyond the nation’s borders. However, without access to a coastline, the navy remains a curious entity. The deployment of this force for ceremonial purposes raises the question: is this about maritime capability, or is it about Ethiopia’s regional ambitions?

Abiy Ahmed’s government has long expressed interest in securing access to the sea through port agreements in neighboring countries, including Djibouti, Somaliland, and Somalia. Could the guard of honour for the President of Mogadishu be a diplomatic overture aimed at advancing Ethiopia’s maritime aspirations? Or is it merely a show of strength and solidarity in a region where alliances are fluid and strategic posturing is the norm?

Somalia’s Role: For Somalia, the optics of its president receiving honours from Ethiopia’s navy could be perceived in several ways. On the one hand, it may signal strengthening bilateral ties, with Ethiopia playing a supportive role in Somalia’s state-building efforts. On the other hand, it raises concerns about sovereignty and agency. Somalia’s fragile government, already struggling with internal divisions and external interference, risks being seen as overly dependent on regional powers like Ethiopia.

While Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was meeting with Somalia’s president, a separate diplomatic front was unfolding in Cairo. In a meeting between Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Eritrean counterpart Osman Saleh, and Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, the three top diplomats convened the first joint trilateral ministerial committee. According to Egypt’s foreign ministry, the ministers agreed to ongoing diplomatic coordination and to hold periodic ministerial meetings, with the next session scheduled in Mogadishu.

During a press conference, Shoukry emphasized the importance of implementing outcomes from the Asmara Summit held in October, where leaders from Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia discussed mutual interests. Arrangements are reportedly underway for a trilateral summit at the presidential level, signaling deepening ties between these nations. This trilateral alliance, centered on the Horn of Africa, could be seen as a counterweight to Ethiopia’s regional ambitions, further complicating the dynamics between Somalia and Ethiopia.

Somalia’s Tightrope Diplomacy Partner or Pawn?

For Somalia, the optics of its president receiving honours from Ethiopia’s navy could be perceived in several ways. On the one hand, it may signal strengthening bilateral ties, with Ethiopia playing a supportive role in Somalia’s state-building efforts. On the other hand, it raises concerns about sovereignty and agency. Somalia’s fragile government, already struggling with internal divisions and external interference, risks being seen as overly dependent on regional powers like Ethiopia.

While Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was meeting with Somalia’s president, a separate diplomatic front was unfolding in Cairo. In a meeting between Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Eritrean counterpart Osman Saleh, and Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, the three top diplomats convened the first joint trilateral ministerial committee. According to Egypt’s foreign ministry, the ministers agreed to ongoing diplomatic coordination and to hold periodic ministerial meetings, with the next session scheduled in Mogadishu.

During a press conference, Shoukry emphasized the importance of implementing outcomes from the Asmara Summit held in October, where leaders from Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia discussed mutual interests. Arrangements are reportedly underway for a trilateral summit at the presidential level, signaling deepening ties between these nations. This trilateral alliance, centered on the Horn of Africa, could be seen as a counterweight to Ethiopia’s regional ambitions, further complicating the dynamics between Somalia and Ethiopia.

Somalia’s Tightrope Diplomacy

Somalia has also accused Ethiopia of undermining its territorial integrity, threatening to eject Ethiopian peacekeepers, and strengthening its relations with Ethiopia’s arch-foes Egypt and Eritrea. These developments, particularly after Turkey’s mediation efforts, suggest that Mogadishu’s approach to regional diplomacy has shifted. Observers have gone so far as to describe Somalia’s actions as part of a “behind-closed-doors policy,” likening it to a world of “high-class diplomatic prostitution,” where alliances and loyalties are traded based on immediate benefits rather than long-term strategic stability. Such moves risk complicating Somalia’s already fraught relations with its neighbors, particularly Ethiopia.

"Observers have gone so far as to describe Somalia’s actions as part of a “behind-closed-doors policy,” likening it to a world of “high-class diplomatic prostitution,” where alliances and loyalties are traded based on immediate benefits rather than long-term strategic stability."

Prime Minister Abiy’s Geopolitical Calculations

For Abiy Ahmed, the guard of honour might serve several purposes. First, it could be a signal to regional and international actors that Ethiopia is serious about its naval ambitions, even if the practicalities remain tenuous. Second, it may be an attempt to project Ethiopia as a stabilizing force in the Horn of Africa, capable of partnering with Somalia on security and development.

However, sceptics may see it differently. Abiy’s government has faced criticism for its aggressive tactics and centralizing tendencies within Ethiopia. Could this ceremony be a distraction from domestic challenges? Or perhaps it is a calculated bid to leverage Somalia’s reliance on Ethiopia for security cooperation in exchange for concessions on maritime access?

Conclusion: A Symbolic Act or a Strategic Play?

The guard of honour by Ethiopia’s navy is more than a ceremonial gesture—it is a symbolic act laden with geopolitical implications. For Ethiopia, it underscores aspirations for maritime relevance. For Somalia, it raises questions about sovereignty and regional alignment. For the broader region, it highlights the complex interplay of ambition, dependency, and power dynamics that define the Horn of Africa.

Whether this moment signifies a step toward mutual cooperation or a veiled assertion of influence will depend on what follows. For now, it remains a curious spectacle—a guard of honour on a continent where symbolism and strategy often go hand in hand, but rarely without controversy.

Despite millions of Global Community partners Tax payers money has been worsted on travel missions and lack of accountability project. international Debt has has relieved but now Somalia has signed new agreement with China under new Debt funding for undisclosed projects and money going to the pocket of Officials.

Author and Disclaimer :- The Content of this Article is my own and not associated with anyone whatso ever.

Abdikarim Abdi Adan, Somaliland Sovereignty Campaigner - 12th December 2025