Taking Stock: The Political Landscape post the Assembly Elections

 What does one make of the recent Assembly election results? Much has already been said- that the BJP is now clearly and unambiguously a national party. That the Congress is on life support and might soon become irrelevant. That regional parties are back and will be the key forces in 2019. That the BJP has learnt its lessons from Bihar and eased up on the polarisation rhetoric and that Rahul Gandhi’s alleged strategy of aligning with regional parties has come a cropper. That economic development is now the key to winning elections, not traditional caste-based strategies.

 One way of characterising what has happened is to think of it as a regaining of an equilibrium. After a period of uncertainty, where political alignments were in a state of flux, with these elections a clearer and somewhat familiar pattern is emerging. One large national party in power at the Centre, and a lot of fragmented regional forces in power at in the states. The main opposition party in disarray, searching for relevance. The 2014 results seemed to suggest the possibility that a single charismatic leader could change the way voters behaved, and while that might still be the case nationally, at the level of the state, it is clearly local factors and local leaders that matter more.

 As has been widely commented upon, the BJP has shed some of its polarizing belligerence in the recent elections and has moved a little closer to a more centrist space. Economically, this shift has been in evidence for a while now, beginning with this year’s Budget. Extreme voices in the party too have been quieter and this has reduced the ammunition that media and opposition get in abundant measure otherwise.

 It has helped that in the last few months, the government has regained some of the ground it had lost earlier, both in the Parliament and outside. Its ability to use the JNU issue to its advantage by making nationalism a fault line marked a turning point of sorts. It has also made some moves on the economic policy front, and while these are by no means indicative of any radical reform that industry has been expecting, it does mark some movement nevertheless. The Augusta Westland scam issue has been used effectively in Parliament to put the Congress on the back foot.

 Early as it is, the outlook for 2019 is beginning to take some shape. The BJP will be the dominant defining political force, but it is easier to see where it will lose seats than where it will gain them. The Modi factor will continue to play a role, but not with the same intensity as it did in 2014. Current alliances will deliver less rather than more, and the prospect of building new pre-poll alliances while trying to expand its national footprint will be a daunting challenge for the party. As things stand, a return to power with a reduced majority looks like the scenario that is most likely to unfold. For someone like Narendra Modi, this might actually be a worse outcome than an outright defeat, for the latter option, in the long run, given the paucity of a viable alternative, could create conditions for a triumphant and more enduring return to power. A marginal victory, on the other hand, will arguably do great damage to the Modi aura of strength and invincibility.

 This makes regional parties and the BJP’s handling of them quite crucial. Given its polarizing instinct, the BJP will need to figure out a game plan that builds on its relative success in the recent round of elections rather than go back to its Bihar playbook. Given that UP is next, it will be interesting to see which way it goes- whether it deepens divisions post its Muzaffarnagar experience or chooses to find a local leader and back the person early with a more inclusive plank.

 For the opposition, the best bet is as always to needle that side of the BJP that cannot control itself and reacts wildly and disproportionately to any provocation. This is not a separate set of people on the fringe, but an aspect of the party’s impulse that is central to it. The BJP needs to play a more controlled and calibrated game going forward, and this is not its natural instinct. There is little chance of the Congress regaining political credibility in the short term and perhaps ever again, and a united pre-poll front seems like a distant prospect so the focus would need to be on the BJP’s tendency to damage itself. The opposition cannot win the election, but the BJP can lose it.

 Two years into power, the Modi government is playing a modest game and winning small. In a real sense, while there is a feeling that there is a government that is in control, the benefits of governance have not been experienced in a transformational way in the everyday lives of people. The country’s administration needs a radical systemic overhaul, beginning with its political system. Narendra Modi Has so far shown little inclination to embark on a project of this kind. While politically this might be a prudent step for it would mean trying to dismantle a system with formidable strength, in the longer run, without attempting this, the promise of a vastly improved delivery of governance cannot be met. It is easier for this regime to define its goals in other terms and give more prominence to its cultural project for here, a little symbolic action goes a long way. The problem is, that won’t help the party beyond a point in 2019. It also makes the prospect of building alliances that much more difficult.

 It is a time when the Modi government has to decide which way to go. Two years is precisely the right time to confront this question- the early jitters have gone, there is still time to make an impact and 2019 is still some distance away. Eventually, it boils down to a question of ambition.

(This is a slightly modified version of a piece that has appeared in the Times of India)