Taking Shortcuts

Hi, I’m David and my mission in life is to prepare people for the future of work.?

In this week’s edition of the newsletter the theme revolves around taking shortcuts. In the fast-paced world we live in, filled with opportunities of instant gratification (e.g. social media) and promises of instant riches (e.g. crypto), there seems to be a shortcut or a ‘life hack’ for almost anything. We want everything for nothing and if given the choice we take the path of least resistance. However, we often forget that the small choices we make daily quietly reshape our habits and come to define who we are. In the words of Aristotle: “We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.” So, by repeatedly taking shortcuts or by choosing the path of least resistance we change not just our trajectory in life, but who we are and what we believe in. And, even if we realise that we’ve made a mistake and we fight to reclaim our original path, life is a constant battle against the easy option. Below are some reflections on my own internal struggle to resist the temptation of taking shortcuts as an aspiring writer and some insights on the implications of using AI at work.?

Timeless Insight

“Shortcuts change more than just the journey. They change us.”? – Shane Parrish

I started writing this newsletter about two years ago, just a couple of months before the launch of ChatGPT – OpenAI 's text generating AI chatbot that has taken the world by storm. Earlier this week, OpenAI introduced its latest series of AI models o1-preview and o1-mini, which were “designed to spend more time thinking before they respond”. Moreover, according to OpenAI , the new and improved AI models can “reason through complex tasks and solve harder problems than previous models in science, coding, and maths”. When it comes to writing, even older versions of ChatGPT, if prompted effectively, could help someone improve the speed and quality of their writing output, especially less-skilled writers. And, although generative AI chatbots such as ChatGPT do not make the least-skilled writers as effective as the most-skilled writers, according to research from Noy and Zhang (2023) AI tools can make all writers faster and reduce the quality gap between the two groups. So, here I am, an aspiring writer drafting the 51st edition of my Grow Your Career newsletter thinking what’s the point of spending hours finding the right word to say something when I can just take the easy way out and turn to ChatGPT for a first draft and/or to edit my work? Luckily, I never forgot why I started writing in the first place, which is to improve my ability to think clearly. I have days where my inspiration tank is running low or when I can’t pick myself up to write, but I somehow resist the temptation of delegating my writing to ChatGPT because I know that choosing the path of least resistance would lead me away from my goals. So, next time you are tempted to take a shortcut, remember that it can change more than just your trajectory in life. It can change you.?

Food for Thought

I recently listened to a conversation about the future of AI at work, which I recommend, between Arvind Karunakaran , Assistant Professor at 美国斯坦福大学 in the Department of Management Science and Engineering, and Russ Altman , the past chairman of the bioengineering department at 美国斯坦福大学 . The discussion was fascinating given my interest in the impact of AI on the future of work and also because I came across a thought-provoking insight while reading the short description of the video on YouTube : “AI can enhance speed and productivity in the short run, yet degrade skills over time.”?

While several studies provide examples that demonstrate how using generative AI tools can boost expertise and productivity across a range of tasks (coding, writing, customer service, and consulting), only more recent studies have started looking at the impact of AI on skills. And, the results are in line with the insight that caught my attention in the description.??

In a recent study from 波士顿谘询公司 , data scientists were pitted against non-specialists augmented by generative AI. On certain coding tasks, where a typical data scientist score is normalised to 100%, a non-specialist would score approximately 37%. Once non-specialists were augmented by AI, their scores jumped to 86%. Improvements in performance happened across other technical tasks, too. When AI was taken away, however, the augmented workers showed no improvement in baseline technical skills. Thus, if the finding holds, lower-skilled employees do better with AI, but they don’t get better.??

BCG’s previous study found that AI assistance can lead to increased errors: AI-equipped consultants were 19 percentage points more likely to err. To combat the over-reliance and complacency, the engineering mindset, the ability to break down complex problems and examine the components methodically, becomes the skill to nurture in the workplace.

But that’s easier said than done, especially at a time when tech companies are in a race to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI) and are releasing ever-more powerful AI models every few months. Just to clarify for those less familiar with the aforementioned acronym, AGI is defined on the website of OpenAI , one of the leading companies in the AI race, as “a highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at most economically valuable work." As AI models are getting better at an alarming rate, so does the number of tasks they can perform just as well or even better than humans, especially in science, coding, and maths.?

According to OpenAI, their “next model update performs similarly to PhD students on challenging tasks in physics, chemistry, and biology, and it excels in maths and coding.” OpenAI 's latest AI model, GPT-4o, was evaluated in coding contests and reached the 89th percentile in Codeforces contests, one of the best places to practise competitive coding.

So, we seem to find ourselves in a paradox. While an engineering mindset seems to be one of the most important mental models to develop in order to thrive in a world of work that is disrupted by technology, the way we develop this skill (i.e. coding) is being automated by AI. Jensen Huang , the founder of 英伟达 , the semiconductor company powering the AI race, predicted a shift from traditional coding to using AI to democratise programming. However, the main risk of fully automating code is that people don’t form an engineering mindset, because how do you form this skill when the source of its development is no longer needed??

Going back to the recent BCG study, we started from the premise that while generative AI tools are enabling employees to work more efficiently, perform higher-quality work, or complete new and challenging tasks, they aren’t really helping them learn new skills. However, if we become over-reliant on generative AI tools we can even lose some skills.?

Professor Arvind Karunakaran , who studies the impact of AI on work among other things, also warned about the risk of becoming over-dependent on a particular technology at work. We know from prior history going all the way back to the first industrial revolution (1760-1840) that by leveraging the latest automation technology in the pursuit for greater efficiency and productivity, people also lose some valuable skills. So, while the use of AI tools might give workers a short-term productivity boost, if people don’t learn new skills or even lose skills, that will impact not only their current job, but their future job prospects.?

So, how does it all tie to the theme of this newsletter, taking shortcuts? In my view, generative AI has become the ultimate shortcut both for employees to be more efficient and for companies to be more productive. However, like with any shortcut in life, while AI may make you more productive in the short-term, you might lose some skills along the way.?

Article of the Week?

Can We Have a Pro-Worker AI??

Caricature of the Week

Source: Condé Nast

Thank you for reading and keep on growing!

David

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