Takeaways, Insights and Report from Autodesk University 2022
Alan Griffiths
EVP/Principal Consultant @ Cambashi | C.Eng I help organisations to optimise their sales and marketing resources using data analytics.
Autodesk University 2022
New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
by Alan Griffiths, EVP, Cambashi, Cambridge UK
Main Takeaways
In September last year Autodesk put on a spectacular ‘in-person’ show for over 10,000 people in the colossal Ernest N Morial convention center in New Orleans, where CEO Andrew Anagnost and EVP/COO Steve Blum introduced the expansion of its cloud strategy with a version for each of its main markets:
The cloud strategy for each of the above is at a different stage (Fusion – the cloud infrastructure that supports Autodesk’s Fusion 360 CADCAM products – being the most advanced).?Andrew Anagnost explained that this is why there isn’t a single cloud offering at this time, and that convergence between the disciplines is increasing. Each of the business areas above has recently made important acquisitions to enhance capability and market share.
A key market driver is sustainability, and there were practical examples showing how software can help:
Another key market driver is productivity which is driven by enhancements such as: automatic generation of dimensioned drawings and integrated product selection via Fusion (D&M); integration of REVIT with EPIC software and Forma (AEC); and centralized cloud storage using Flow (M&E).
This report covers:
1.??????Highlights from other keynotes and analyst Q&A sessions
This covers the presentations and Q&A sessions with:
2.??????Analysis and Insights from Cambashi, into Autodesk’s approach and strategy
3.?????Selected highlights from AU sessions and case studies
1.???Highlights from keynote presentations and analyst Q&A sessions
Q&A with Andrew Anagnost (CEO, Autodesk)
Autodesk has seriously good manufacturing technology and it generally showcases customers that are small and innovative, such as Briggs Automotive Company (with its ‘Mono’ hypercar), British Antarctic Survey (who presented in the keynote) and BBi (a specialist Porsche customizer that also presented in the keynote).
I asked Andrew: ‘As you grow your business in D&M for larger customers, they will almost always already have a CADCAM/PLM system in place, For example. if you go up the supply chain in various industries, you will bump into Dassault Systèmes, Siemens, or PTC, so who do you see as your main competition and how will you replace them?
Andrew’s replied (paraphrased) was that there is plenty of opportunity in the mid-market, and Autodesk is already replacing Solidworks and Mastercam in many places. Regarding moving up the supply chain; ‘we just don’t need to go there!. We don’t need to fight those guys, and anyway disruption starts from the bottom and works upwards, so if that leads to larger customers adopting Fusion, all well and good’.
Andrew was also asked: ‘Why three different clouds instead of one?’ His reply was:
‘The technology in each area is at a very different stage regarding moving to the cloud, so they are at different levels of readiness to make a full move FROM their existing (file-based) products TO the granular cloud platform model. And by the way, all products will continue to be available standalone as well as in Fusion, e.g. Inventor, Delcam CAM products etc.
Residency requirements (i.e. where the cloud datacenter is based) are still an issue, but we are standing up datacenters in more and more countries’.
Andrew also commented that re-shoring and near-shoring is growing as customers respond to global supply chain issues, and many companies are building multiple (alternative) supply chains to improve their resilience.
When asked: ‘does Forma mean no more investment in REVIT?’, Andrew replied that: ‘Autodesk will continue to invest in REVIT but Forma is the preferred future path – i.e. re-architecting REVIT would have been too difficult and not achieved the ‘new paradigm’ – of cloud-based, flexible software’.
Autodesk Fusion for Design & Make, presented by Jeff Kinder, EVP Design and Manufacturing
Jeff showed how Hyundai used Autodesk generative design to tackle complex problems, allowing a designer to run hundreds of different design iterations and allow them to see possibilities they may not have otherwise considered.
Hundai’s ‘Elevate’ walking vehicle
The unmanned hydrogen-powered drone from H2GO Power was designed using Autodesk Fusion and then 3D printed. It completed the world’s first successful test flight of a 3D-printed hydrogen-powered drone with Ballard Power Systems, Inc, in 2019.
Q&A with Jeff Kinder
Having come from a financial background (JPMorgan Chase, Harvard Business School) Jeff emphasized the importance of Autodesk’s disruptive pricing model for Fusion, and my conversations with resellers confirmed this. In addition, Autodesk is providing flexibility in the subscription model by allowing different persona to have higher access to technology.?For example, subscription levels are arranged in tiers and capability is gradually moved down the tiers to provide more value, and Flex makes ‘consumption pricing’ possible, which suits occasional users. 'Named users' is now standard, and in general, customers can choose the licensing model they want.
Although Fusion is very much the future direction, Autodesk continues to invest in Inventor – such as by increasing the speed by up to 80% and the number of parts to 4 million – and is enabling smooth file transition into Fusion.?Serious CAM capabilities come from products such as PowerMill and PowerInspect, along with its 5-axis subtractive machining and various additive manufacturing technologies. See ‘Selected highlights from AU sessions and case studies’, ‘Project MOnACO; the next level of sophistication in generative design, simulation, and 3D printing manufacture’ to see a good example of the application of sophisticated software tools in the design, analysis (using CAE and CFD), and manufacture (3D printing) of a large (one meter diameter) jet engine component. This approach reduced the number of parts from over 150 to one, and reduced lead time from more than nine months to less than three.
Asked about the long-term strategy for Fusion, Jeff said that the aim is to make the data that comprises the model ‘granular’ – so that software products can take just ‘the bits they need’ rather than having to ingest the entire model. For example, Prodsmart and ANSYS are already doing this. The granular approach also facilitates device independence – another objective.
Longer-term objectives are to increase the integration with ANSYS, and to continue to automate processes such as creating models from connection points, dimensioning, and NC toolpath generation (i.e. creating ‘click to make’ analogous to ‘print’ in the office).
Autodesk Forma for AEC/BIM, presented by Amy Bunszel, EVP AEC Design
Amy Bunszel explained how the Forma cloud facilitates the integration of Autodesk products running from the conceptual design stage (SPACEMAKER) through to Construction Cloud.
Amy introduced Pascal Sayah of Bravida – a 100-year-old electrical and mechanical contracting company based in the Nordic countries. Bravida is undergoing a digital transformation as it recently won a €3.1 billion highway project to connect northern and southern Stockholm with the new ‘E4’, 21 km bypass, (mostly in tunnels) and it needed to develop and install systems for power, lighting, HVAC, wastewater, and firefighting. In one E4 tunnel alone, there are 76 transformers, 20,000 lighting fixtures, and 23,000 sprinkler heads. Autodesk partnered with Bravida to adopt a completely digital workflow that delivers significant productivity gains: Automation and cloud collaboration capabilities in Revit and BIM Construction Cloud yielded an 87% cost reduction in services. The company can connect 3D BIM models using Autodesk ‘Forma’ Platform Services (formerly known as Forge), which enables predictive maintenance in the future, thus completing the BIM processes from Design to Construct and Maintain.
Investment continues in AutoCAD and Revit, the latter now having a connector to McNeel’s Rhino – a leading conceptual design tool for AEC.
Another major announcement was a strategic collaboration with Epic Games to ‘accelerate immersive real-time (RT) experiences across industries, with an initial focus on Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC).’ The first integrated offering will be Epic Games’ Twinmotion for Autodesk Revit, delivering real-time rendering and storytelling. As Revit is used to design, document, and deliver building and infrastructure projects, Twinmotion complements the process by creating real-time visualizations for a fast, interactive design process. Autodesk intends to make Twinmotion for Revit available to all Revit customers as part of an upcoming release.
Q&A with Amy Bunszel
In response to questions about market drivers, Amy said that sustainability was increasingly important, and – connected to this – renovation (rather than demolition and rebuilding) or re-purposing buildings is becoming commonplace. Resilience in supply chains is still an issue, as is the drive for operational efficiency and reduced payment cycles.
Forma is enabling new ways of working – from conceptual design to build and operate in one data environment. Partnerships with established companies such as Schneider Electric are facilitating this process.
Moving from ‘floating’ to Flex licensing provides more flexibility to customers; For example, with the token/Flex pricing, AutoCAD currently costs seven tokens per day, while Fusion 360 costs two tokens per day. Sid Haksar, head of construction strategy with Autodesk Construction Solutions, stressed how the industry was becoming more data-driven and this was leading to more flexibility in licensing requirements; user-based licensing is complex as it must sometimes extend to sub-contractors, so sometimes unlimited (but managed) licensing may be provided for a specific customer or project. Sid also commented that ‘96% of the information generated in the design process is not used’ so much more value could be derived from this using analytical tools. Tools like Autodesk’s Bridge, a new collaboration capability, allows construction teams to share only relevant data with project stakeholders, regardless of whether they are on the same team or building project within Autodesk Construction Cloud. This reduces the need for manual data transfer and ensures that everyone is working from the same information, minimizing rework, and saving time and money.
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Autodesk Flow for Media & Entertainment, presented by Diana Colella, SVP, Media & Entertainment
Diana probably had the most spectacular presentation as Autodesk is involved in the film industry, and as well as the introduction of Flow, there have been several interesting acquisitions and partnerships.
Jeremy Smith, Chief Technology Officer Jellyfish Pictures, explained how Jellyfish – famous for the production of Stranger Things, the BBC's Planet Dinosaur, and feature films like ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’ – uses the cloud for rendering purposes, and for improving the efficiency of its production pipeline using Flow for centralized cloud storage. Jellyfish also uses GPU virtual machine support in Microsoft’s Azure for computational rendering.
Diana said how the recent acquisition of Moxion, a New Zealand-based developer used by leading filmmakers on productions such as ‘The Matrix Resurrections’, expands Autodesk's Flow cloud platform for Media and Entertainment upstream, moving beyond post-production into production. This also brings new users to Autodesk and helps integrate processes across the entire content production chain.
Q&A with Diana Colella
Diana responded to a question about open standards by saying that Maya and 3ds Max both use USD (Universal Scene Description – a framework for interchange of 3D computer graphics data, which is the core of Pixar’s 3D graphics pipeline).
2.???Analysis and Insights
Insights from the keynote presentations into how Autodesk is reacting to market pressures.
It’s important to distinguish between ‘tech’ vendors like Autodesk that develop software and technology to help companies develop and produce real-world products more effectively and efficiently – from other ‘tech’ companies in the ‘social media’ world. One recent article on global ‘big tech’ listed as its first four examples, Snap, Peloton, Meta, and Netflix – hardly companies in the same field as Autodesk or experiencing the same market pressures. Analysts and observers working in this field do know the difference, but it would be helpful if ‘big media’ made the distinction clearer.
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Cambashi’s analysis of previous downturns in the world economy (due to events such as the Great Financial Crash, the ‘Dot com bubble’, and the ‘COVID-19 pandemic’) shows that engineering/manufacturing software providers have sustained growth through these downturns (see chart below). Based on this analysis, our expectation is that Autodesk will continue to grow over the next five years despite the latest, looming global downturn.
Note that the dip in 2016 is mainly due to changing sales models (from perpetual to subscription)
The main market pressures mentioned at Autodesk University 2022 and its reaction are analyzed below:
The need for sustainability
At Cambashi, we are seeing very strong interest from several of our clients in understanding the market for sustainability software – across all industries from Manufacturing to AEC. The scope and definition are becoming evident through new software products, enhancements, and partnerships.
Autodesk demonstrated that it not only talks about ESG at corporate level but is also doing something about sustainability through its software development. One specific Design & Make example is Autodesk’s partnership with Makersite – which enables sustainable parts and materials to be ‘designed-in’ to a product through an integration with Fusion; see ‘Designing-in Sustainability’ in the ‘Selected highlights from AU sessions and case studies’ section for details. This shows how Autodesk enables sustainability to be considered at the earliest stages of design and enabled throughout the lifecycle of the product.
An AEC/BIM example is how Autodesk is joining-up the ‘conceptual Design’, ‘Build’, and ‘Operate’ phases of construction through Revit extensions and Construction Cloud so that sustainable design can be built-in to the entire lifecycle. Autodesk Simulation CFD, Revit, Dynamo and Autodesk Rendering software (in the ‘AEC Collection’) allow the architect or designer to explore design alternatives and optimize airflows, thus making the building more environmentally efficient when heating or cooling. In addition, offsite prefabrication can introduce best practices such as ‘lean’ and ‘right first time’ from manufacturing to reduce waste and on-site labor costs.
The digital ’camera to cloud’ approach in the film industry, now possible with Autodesk Flow, is more sustainably responsible and efficient than previous methods of filming using celluloid.
Skilled labor shortages
One approach is to improve the productivity of the existing workforce by simplifying and automating the ‘design to manufacture to delivery’ processes. Autodesk enables this through better integration between ‘design’ (Inventor, Fusion), ‘simulation and analysis’ (Autodesk Simulation and ANSYS), production engineering (recently-acquired CIMCO has technology that automates the process of defining machine strategies), and manufacturing (Upchain provides multi-tenanted cloud presence for PLM and PDM, while Prodsmart enables manufacturers to automate and connect processes and provide production insights from ordering through to shipping). As ‘Design’ and ‘Make’ converge under the Fusion banner, Autodesk seems well-placed to address more of the product lifecycle by providing solutions (whether by development, acquisition, or partnership) for supply chain management, production, and delivery.
Similarly in AEC, Autodesk’s Forma and Construction Cloud facilitate BIM workflows from design through to construction in the field.
Autodesk Flow is allowing data in the film industry to be taken directly ‘from camera to cloud’ thus improving productivity and de-skilling some of the previous arcane processes, and also allows virtual working that improves efficiency and reduces the need for travel.
Global economic downturn and volatility
Improving productivity – as discussed above – is essential when reacting to an economic downturn, as it means doing more with less. Autodesk’s ‘disruptive software pricing model’ helps cost-constrained companies acquire advanced technological capabilities thus making them more competitive and supporting lower product prices.
Enhanced design and CAM capabilities further facilitate productivity, as stated above and shown in ‘Project MOnACO; the next level of sophistication in generative design, simulation, and 3D printing’. ?
Andrew Anagnost said that flexible ‘supply networks’ rather than rigid ‘supply chains’ are being implemented by customers to improve resilience against changing supplier marketplaces and allow onshoring; this looks like an area that Autodesk will be addressing more in the future.
Jeff Kinder explained how Autodesk’s ‘disruptive software pricing model’ is helping smaller or cost-constrained companies acquire similar technological capabilities to the ‘big boys’, thus making them more competitive and supporting lower product prices.
In summary; opportunities, and challenges
Autodesk has a clear aim to develop each of its main three business areas (Design & Manufacturing/ ’Make’ software, AEC/BIM, and Media & Entertainment) using a cloud-based strategy – Fusion, Forma, and Flow respectively. This is fairly low risk as Fusion has been in progress (successfully) for over 10 years and has piloted the company’s move to a subscription model. The cloud-based approach is generally accepted for BIM and is very effective for M&E.
Opportunities and challenges in Design and Make
Autodesk is already a significant player in the manufacturing/CAD/CAM market (see chart below) which is estimated to by Cambashi to have steady growth of about 9-10% over the next three years.
While there will continue to be opportunities from smaller, innovative companies – it will inevitably brush up against powerful incumbents such as Siemens, Dassault Systèmes and PTC, as it expands into larger customers – such as tier ones and smaller OEMs in the automotive supply chain. This will require a clear ‘statement of intent’ to show that it is serious about addressing large, complex customers, and will mean not only showing that it has ‘serious’ software (as demonstrated in this conference) but also that it can show, through case studies of new users, that larger companies can use Autodesk systems – either instead of or alongside their incumbent system.
Another way that Autodesk might need to expand its market share is by rounding off its ‘intelligent design’ offer – such as with electrical design, MBSE (Model Based Systems Engineering) and software management. ?It might also benefit from going down the ‘manufacturing chain’ by providing more capability in production manufacturing, product distribution, and maintenance. This could be achieved through internal development, partnership or by acquisition.
Autodesk has a large, diverse community of standalone product users; it will need to keep reassuring them of its continued commitment to core products such as AutoCAD and Inventor.
?Opportunities and challenges in BIM/AEC
Autodesk is already the largest provider of BIM in the AEC market (see chart below) having nearly 20% of the share compared with 5% for the next largest provider, and this market is projected to grow at a CAGR of about 10-11% over the next 5 Years.
The BIM software market divides into three subsegments: Design, Construct, and Operate, which differ in the type of customer, provider, and rate of growth – see chart below:
Autodesk is the largest provider in the Design sub-segment. It is growing in the Construct and Operate sub-segments which is a clear opportunity, but also a challenge as many of the incumbents are well-established. The acquisition of Innovyze – a company specializing in water infrastructure software – is a clever move that expands Autodesk’s market into operations and maintenance without going directly up against the major incumbents in the ‘BIM Operate’ subsegment. Similarly, acquiring The Wild this year extends Autodesk’s presence into the ‘BIM Construct’ sub-segment (the project delivery lifecycle) within the AEC industry. This is complemented by the continuing development of Construction Cloud that manages the workflow and data models during AEC construction projects.
The purpose of BIM is to support the whole lifecycle of buildings, from Design, to Construction, to Operation. Because of its ubiquity, Revit is a ‘de-facto standard’ in the Design phase but it is file-based and not fully integrated with Forma – nor will it be – it relies on Connectors to input and extract data. The granular data model within Forma is the right way forward but, although Autodesk is the biggest overall BIM software provider, not everyone will use Forma so the challenge will be to ensure that non-Autodesk companies can be included at all stages, whether or not they are Forma users. Using AWS (Amazon Web Services) as the underlying cloud platform for Forma is a good move in this direction. ?
Opportunities and challenges in Media & Entertainment
Autodesk is a significant player in the M&E market, having the second highest market share after Adobe – see chart below. Note that this chart shows software revenue only for Animation, Rendering, Special effects, Visual Modelling, Production management, and Games engines (for commercial use). Note that a large part of Adobe’s market share is through Creative Cloud/Photoshop which is largely used in the advertising and graphic design industries – not addressed directly by Autodesk’s M&E products.
Although less than 10% of Autodesk’s annual revenue, M&E is an important market and is projected by Cambashi to grow at a CAGR of over 13% over the next three years. Autodesk’s M&E products include 3ds Max and Maya – 3D animation software for film visual effects and game development – and ?Shotgrid that provides cloud-based technology for production management. The Moxion acquisition earlier this year expands Autodesk's customer base upstream, moving beyond post-production to on-set production where the bulk of raw production data is generated (the management of this data will also benefit from the Flow cloud strategy). A new strategic collaboration with Epic will, according to Autodesk: “accelerate immersive real-time experiences across industries”. The first step is to provide free access to Twinmotion for Revit customers in AEC, and then to apply the technology to M&E (e.g. Maya) and manufacturing. The EPIC technology uses the USD format (Universal Scene Description) – a framework for interchange of 3D computer graphics data developed by Pixar.
The main challengers to Autodesk in M&E are Nemetschek with Maxon One, and Chaos Group with Enscape. Nemetschek’s Maxon provides software solutions for content creators working in design, motion graphics, visual effects and visualization, Cinema 4D for 3D modeling, simulation, and animation technology, Forger for mobile sculpting, Red Giant for editing, motion design and filmmaking; and Redshift for rendering. Earlier this year Enscape and Chaos became one company operating under the Chaos name. Enscape provides real-time rendering and design workflow technology for the AEC industries, while Chaos provides photorealistic rendering technology. Together they provide 3D visualization and design workflow software for AEC, Visual Effects (VFX) and Product Design.
Sustainability is becoming a major issue in the M&E industry – recent research reveals that large films generate over 1,000 metric tons of carbon in the production stage – but this also presents an opportunity for companies like Autodesk that provide productivity and virtualization tools. Sending the film content directly to the cloud, coupled with the efficiency gains from productivity tools will greatly reduce improve sustainability. Environmental benefits include reducing the travel need for crew and equipment and reducing material waste by the production crew using digital technology and virtual sets. Virtual production is also not affected by changes in weather or light conditions. A recent study showed that using virtual production for vehicle chases could reduce CO2 emissions by up to 90% compared to conventional filming.
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3.???Selected highlights from AU sessions and case studies
Project MOnACO; the next level of sophistication in generative design, simulation, and 3D printing manufacture
One of the most interesting sessions – because it demonstrated the next level of sophistication in generative design, simulation, and 3D printing – was the European project MOnACO. This is related to the EU’s European Green Deal which aims to reduce transport emissions by 90% by 2050, compared to 1990 levels. The European Commission and European aerospace industry-funded Clean Sky 2 program, now entering its final phase, is part of this, and its successor Clean Aviation was launched in December 2021. The Clean Sky 2 program – made up of key industry players, subject matter experts, and academic research bodies across Europe – is integrating, demonstrating, and validating technologies that reduce CO2, nitrous oxide (NOx), and noise emissions by up to 30% compared to 2014 aircraft. Another goal is to develop a strong and globally competitive aeronautical industry and supply chain in Europe.
The MOnACO project team is a consortium of: Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH); TU Dresden (TUD); and Autodesk. Together they supported GE AAT Munich in the design and manufacturing of a large-scale metal additively manufactured component – the Advanced Additive Integrated Turbine Centre Frame (TCF) casing for narrow-body aircraft engines.
This one-meter-in-diameter part was manufactured in nickel alloy 718 on a GE Additive system and is one of the largest aerospace parts additively manufactured using the Direct Metal Laser Melting (DMLM) process.
The results, some of which are summarized in the slide below, include:
Designing-in Sustainability
Zo? Bezpalko, Autodesk Senior Design and Manufacturing Sustainability Manager, and Neil D'Souza, founder of Makersite, showed how sustainability can be designed-in when building the CAD model.
Although there are design principles to help with this process (see image below), they lack the rigor of quantitative assessment and, as nearly all the consequences of sustainability are committed at the design stage, it’s vital to offer the designer tools to make rational decisions at this stage.
Lifecycle Assessment (LCA), provided by Makersite, provides the quantitative aspects during the design process, so that the designer can see multiple, sustainable options – such as different materials and parts – and their impact on cost before choosing the optimal configuration.
A new integration between Fusion and Makersite allows Makersite's AI and calculation engines to provide product designers with more sustainable choices from its vast catalog in real time as the design progresses.
Makersite effectively creates a ‘digital twin’ of the entire product lifecycle that allows simulations to show the impact of various design criteria – allowing the designer to make the most affordable, sustainable, choice.
Global names such as Philips, P&G, and Vestas (wind turbines) are already using this technology, and consultants EY and McKinsey & Company are among its advocates; this shows the practical application of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) principles in the real world – and since more than 30% of GDP is driven by new, manufactured products, it will have a major impact on the global economy.
In conclusion, the collaboration between Autodesk (Fusion) and Makersite is a good example of the practical application of sustainable product design; and as product sustainability is committed at the design stage, this ability to offer the designer tools to make rational decisions is a great step forward.
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