Take the Ukraine Rorschach Test

There are two basic ways to think about Russia’s war in Ukraine, Stephen Walt writes . In one of our most widely read articles of the week, the Foreign Policy columnist outlines two perspectives, starkly different and indicative of how the holders view the world generally.?

“Those who favor open-ended support for Ukraine see the world as interconnected and sensitive to small changes,” Walt argues. By contrast, “If you believe world events are only imperfectly interconnected, then what happens in Ukraine is important but not likely to determine the fate of the planet.” Read on to see which side better describes your position.

Plus, now that the results of Sunday’s election runoff in Brazil are in, with former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeating far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, the question is how Bolsonaro will respond. After Bolsonaro spent months undermining the integrity of Brazil’s electoral system, the U.S. took unprecedented steps to “coup-proof” the country, as FP’s Robbie Gramer reports . Be sure to check out FP’s Latin America Brief writer, Catherine Osborn, answering subscriber questions about what’s next for Brazil.—The editors

New and Noteworthy

• What Rishi Sunak Means for the World: After a turbulent few weeks in Britain, Rishi Sunak became the country’s prime minister last week, the third in less than two months. FP interviewed two experts on the numerous challenges he faces on the domestic front and what the world can expect from his leadership. Read a condensed transcript of the FP Live interview here .?
• Is Israel’s Political Virtuoso in Denial?: Israel’s current election campaign is in its home stretch. With Israelis forced finally to decide whom they plan to support on Nov. 1, it appears that one of the remaining few candidates still unprepared to face reality is opposition leader and ostensible front-runner Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu’s prospects of forming Israel’s next government are anchored in, amid other factors, the continued patronage of the ascendant Religious Zionism alliance, which constitutes an integral component of his conservative bloc.

FP Live

The Impacts of U.S.-China Tech Decoupling: The Biden administration has dramatically expanded controls on technology flowing to and from Beijing by imposing aggressive sanctions targeting China’s chip and semiconductor industry. What impact will these changes have? Will other nations support Washington’s new approach? Join FP editor in chief Ravi Agrawal for a conversation with Jon Bateman, a senior fellow in the Technology and International Affairs Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, whose essay on U.S.-China decoupling was one of our most read stories this month. Nov. 1, 2022 | 11 a.m. ET | Register Here

The Midterms and U.S. Foreign Policy: Midterm elections in the United States are approaching, and the party that controls Congress will determine the trajectory of the Biden administration’s domestic and foreign policy. Tune in as FP’s executive editor, Amelia Lester, and FP’s team of reporters answer your questions about what’s at stake for U.S. foreign policy in the midterms as well as analyze the possible outcomes. Nov. 3, 2022 | 12 p.m. ET | Register Here

Exercise Your Mind

Today is the Brazilian holiday Dia do Saci. The government created the holiday in 2003 to celebrate Brazilian folklore and rival the American cultural influence of Halloween.

Which mythological monsters run rampant in Brazilian folklore?

1. Werewolves
2. Vampires
3. Banshees
4. Goblins

You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email. Click here to take the rest of our weekly news quiz—and sign up to get notified when new editions are available.

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Comment of the Week

FP Subscriber @BrittainUK: What can be expected of Brazil's foreign policy under a new Lula government? How about relations with the region - might there be an initiative to revitalize South American regionalism, along the lines of the now-defunct UNASUR? How about the position on Venezuela, given that Lula and his PT have long uncritically supported the Maduro government? How about relations with the US and Europe? Can Brazil be expected to position itself more clearly regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine, given its position as member of BRICS along with Russia on the one hand, and as a democracy, on the other?

FP staffer Catherine Osborn: In his victory speech last night, Lula spoke about reviving on all fronts what he has called the “active” foreign policy of his previous administrations—climate diplomacy, Latin American regionalism, relations with Europe and the United States, technical cooperation with African countries, and the BRICS grouping that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Sustaining good relations with all of these parties is much more difficult to balance today than when Lula was last president from 2003 to 2010, but he looks set to try.

Re: Ukraine, Brazil under Bolsonaro voted together with Western countries to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine in the most recent U.N. General Assembly resolution on the matter. This was a shift from an earlier position of abstention on some Ukraine-related resolutions. I think we might expect Lula to continue in that vein: rebuking Russia in some forums while being hesitant to join the Western sanctions campaign over concerns about how that might affect Brazil’s economy.

Re: Venezuela, Lula retweeted Maduro’s congratulations yesterday. But when asked about Venezuela in interviews, Lula has broadly criticized leaders who try to unjustly stay in power. There may be an opening for Brazil to participate in mediations that aim to establish guarantees around conditions for Venezuela’s next elections.

Thanks to all the FP subscribers who participated in our live Q&A earlier today on Brazil’s elections. Read more highlights from the conversation and sign up for FP’s Latin America Brief newsletter to get weekly news and insight from the region.

From Around FP

• COP27: Join FP Nov. 8-10 at this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, where we will be hosting a series of public and private events focused on strengthening societies’ and economies’ resilience to climate change. View and register for FP’s events at this year’s U.N. climate talks by following this link .?
• Toward Peak Population: Rising populations pose a risk to the planet’s resources, food, and economic security, especially to the women in low- and middle-income countries. Investing in women and girls in these societies is crucial to mitigating the worst effects of the surging global population. Join FP, in partnership with the Population Institute, as we host experts who are leading on this unfolding challenge. Nov. 15 | 11 a.m. ET | Register Here

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Answer: 1) Werewolves