Take Five: A Gift from God

A selection of the major stories impacting ESG investors, in five easy pieces.?

Transition tensions were evident this week from Baku to The Hague.

Hollow Shell – Shell scored a hollow legal victory this week when a Dutch court overturned a 2021 ruling that the oil and gas major must cut its Scope 1-3 emissions by 45%. The Hague-based Court of Appeal only found in Shell’s favour due a lack of consensus among expert witnesses over the path to achieve the cut – rather than any qualms over the legal obligation to make it. Indeed, the court gave every reason to believe it would back future suits using different legal arguments. In particular, it indicated that it was likely to rule against Shell – or anyone else for that matter – developing new oil or gas fields for which there is no carbon budget. “There is no doubt that?Shell’s current strategy remains commercially and legally risky,” said ClientEarth?Senior Lawyer Paul Benson. “We stand by our own claim that?Shell’s board is fundamentally mismanaging these risks, to the detriment of the company and all its stakeholders.” Will Shell take note? Comments from CEO Wael Sawan suggest not. Rather than a “gift from God”, however, the recent resignation statement of a senior scientist – which takes aim at the firm’s transition strategy – suggests at least some of its stewards now see black gold as a bitter inheritance.

Resource-rich – While Shell’s plan came under renewed scrutiny, the path to credible net zero transition by corporates has taken a number of steps forward internationally and in Europe in recent weeks. But it was the energy transition’s impact on mineral-rich developing countries that was in focus for some at COP29. “We see a rush for resources, with communities exploited, rights trampled, and environments trashed; developing countries ground-down to the bottom of value chains, as others grow wealthy on their resources,” said UN?Secretary General António?Guterres at a meeting highlighting principles and recommendations outlined by the UN Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals, which will be implemented by a new high level group. COP29 has seen incremental progress on many fronts for directing greater investment toward climate transition in emerging markets, as well as mounting evidence of the need for much more, while negotiations over the New Collective Quantified Goal continue. But the critical minerals challenges are a reminder of the need to avoid creating new sources of inequity while trying to address existing ones.

Trump’s shadow – The ripples from Donald Trump’s return to the White House reached Germany this week, with energy utility RWE reducing US offshore wind investments in favour of buybacks. But would its effect be felt at COP29 in Azerbaijan? Following an early breakthrough in carbon markets negotiations, some feared American turbulence could thwart further progress. UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell insisted agreement on Article 6 would “help countries implement their climate plans faster and cheaper”, while acknowledging the difficulties facing the process. But Trump’s long shadow did not prevent the announcement of US-China collaboration on methane, including plans for more use of satellite data to track and trace rogue releases. It also promised fines for culprits – much needed according to a new UN Environment Programme report – which are typically fossil fuel firms (many of whom were ramping up their lobbying efforts in Baku). Speaking about the joint efforts, Chinese Climate Envoy Liu Zhenmin had at least one eye on the future, airing his hopes that “co-operation on global climate change will continue to be enhanced” when Trump and Co take over.

Back for good? – With the US heading for the departure lounge, and Europe continuing to trample on its own reputation (not to mention many trees), the stage was set in Baku for Keir Starmer to reassert the UK’s claims to climate leadership. The UK Prime Minister committed to reducing emissions by 81% by 2035 from a 1990 base, in line with advice, strongly emphasising the importance of “unlocking” private finance. Having taken several key steps since assuming office to channel private investment into renewable energy, the UK is still vulnerable to criticisms made this week by investors on policy gaps and misalignments – not least due to May’s high court ruling that current policies were insufficient to meet existing commitments. While confirming support for a recently recommended Transition Finance Council, Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ attention was less on mobilising private finance than public pensions in her first Mansion House speech. Specifically, she released the interim findings of the government’s Pension Investment Review, which included detailed plans to consolidate the ￡500 billion AUM (US$634 billion) Local Government Pension Scheme (LGPS). Trailed as a big shift that will replicate the power of Australian and Canadian ‘superfunds’ to drive both beneficiary returns and sustainable investment, it also finishes the job of the Turner reforms, forcing local authorities to hand over the rest of their assets to existing pooled funds.

Mixed messages – If the UK’s newly-empowered LGPS pools and defined contribution schemes are to fulfil Reeves’ mandate for? “greater investment in productive assets”, they will need the tools to identify and nurture the best opportunities. Institutional investors in the UK and beyond have been near-universal in their praise for the role of the 2020 Stewardship Code in improving the quality of stewardship and engagement by asset owner and manager signatories, supporting short- and long-term investment objectives. So it’s worth noting the less-than-positive response of many sustainable investors to the Financial Reporting Council’s proposals to streamline the code’s requirements, especially a redefinition of stewardship that weakens its links to beneficial economic, social and environmental outcomes. As noted by Adam Matthews, Chief Responsible Investment Officer at the Church of England Pensions Board, “It is curious that such a change is being presented as supporting the UK growth and investment agenda – when one would venture actually considering benefits on the economy and society would be exactly what the government is seeking of pension funds”.

This is my weekly blog, also published on www.esginvestor.net, in which I collate and comment on some of the main news items of the week from a sustainable investment perspective. Please click through and subscribe.