Take 5 and come back tomorrow
First of all, let’s be clear. The following is not investment research/advice.?And, as such, it involves no investment recommendations. These are my thoughts on Spanish equity issues, which I find relevant. I share them freely (and not just as regards price). As always, I am only trying to help. Please read the rest of the “discomplainer (*)” at the end of the article.
Market environment: Just watching - (Asia-Pacific market rose with European markets and US futures flat) – Asia-Pacific markets rose moderately as investors continue to monitor central bank actions. European markets and US futures flat.
Response to the crisis: The way to get rid of temptations is to give in to them - (The Madrid region will recover the tax on wealth while deciding how to compensate the wealthy (Cinco Dias p23) – This is not the ideal situation. It’s fine to say that if there is going to be a tax on wealth (violating the autonomy of regions to decide on the issue) the money will be kept at home. But how the funds will be spent creates unneeded temptations. It’s always easier to buy more votes.
Banks: Resist the temptation - (Bank of Spain governor calls for the tax on banks be used to reinforce their balance sheets (Expansion p16)/The Government calls on banks to provide more aid to mortgage holders (Cinco Dia p11) – The tax on banks is a bad idea. It reduces the opportunity for banks to use the “windfall profit” from higher rates to prepare for the downturn created by the same higher rates and/or help their customers who will be suffering from the same effect. The tax just feeds government spending that fuels inflation. And will result in higher rates.
Telefonica: In transition; (Telefonica’s new strategic plan guarantees dividends of €6.9bn through 2026, with annual EBITDA growth of 2% and 10% in cash generation (Expansion p3)/Telefonica’s LatAm assets are on sale (Expansion p4) – Telefonica is in a difficult place. The transition from growth (even if you pretend it is still there) and yield is complicated. Moving to a “yield” place is probably a good idea.
Macro: Living in zombieland - (The number of companies incorporated in September fell 1.5% YoY, with those liquidated falling 12.9% (National Statistics Institute) – The figures point to company creation only falling marginally but company liquidation declining sharply. This may be seen as a positive. However, I believe that the interpretations is more negative. Nothing is created, nothing is destroyed. We are living in zombieland.
*The above information has been read/understood/summarised/evaluated/copied as well as I could to provide a guide to Spanish equities, given available timing/intellectual constraints, and I accept no liability for misreading and/or mistranslating the original copy as set out in my previous article (which I urge you to check, as I am only trying to point you in the right direction, I hope). As for what you may decide to do, after reading the above, please contact your legally approved provider of investment advice on Spanish equities.