Taiwan’s 2024 Election: China’s last hope before invasion
Photo Creds to New York Times
A war in the Middle East, A war in Europe and A war in Asia. These are three pillars of China’s strategy to dethrone US hegemony. Hamas’ attack on Israel, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and now all eyes are on Taiwan. Xi Jinping’s regime has been disastrous, with no real tangible benefit to the Chinese people. The last promise from his speech to the Chinese Communist Party, ensures that Taiwan will be unified with China at all costs. Taiwan’s upcoming election poses a major challenge to Beijing. If the front-runner, Lai Ching-Te, is successful and wins, then Beijing’s last resort to unify Taiwan is an all-out invasion, which they are not prepared for. This article examines the history between the two nation’s, Xi Jinping’s dilemma and the upcoming election.
Chinese Civil War
Photo Credits to r/mapporn on Reddit
The Chinese Civil War was an intense period between the Nationalist, led by Chaign Kai-Shek and the Communist led by Mao Zedong. While Chiang Kai-Shek initially had an overwhelming advantage against communist forces, Mao Zedong was able to outmaneuver and outwit the nationalist.
Zedongs writings are a critical reading for any scholar attempting to understand the nature of unconventional warfare. Using unconventional tactics, the Chinese Communists were able to overthrow the Nationalists.
Whatever remained, evacuated to the island of Taiwan, to avoid execution. While some forces that were left behind started an insurgency, they were ultimately defeated. On the 1st of October 1949 the People’s Republic of China was founded, led by Mao Zedong. The Nationalist government relocated to the Island of Taiwan and established an independent government in 1949.
However, while these two nations established independence, what followed after was a series of crisis’ between Taiwan and China.
Taiwan Strait Crisis
Photo Credits to Global Times
Excluding the third Taiwan Strait Crisis, the People’s Republic of China conducted military movements, that involved live-fire drills or artillery strikes when the United States wanted to raise Taiwanese legitimacy. Those reactionary movements, while extreme, reveal the PRC’s motivations to prevent Taiwan having official diplomatic ties to the United States. If Taiwan, is successful in establishing ties, then the United States will interfere with China’s ability to invade. Observing the last crisis, it reveals China’s strategy to take the island.
Photo Credits to Naval News
In comparing the previous live fire drill to the current strait crisis, the People’s Liberation Army has moved away from intimidation to isolation. The live fire zones reveal, China’s intention on locking the island completely, to prevent foreign aid or logistics from reaching the island, making it vulnerable to invasion. This recent crisis happened because of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, and while the PRC threatened to escalate the conflict, there was no action following these live fire drills.
China’s reaction to US support of Taiwan, has always resorted in military maneuvers. In the current election, if Lai Ching-Te wins and becomes President of Taiwan, there is a major possibility the CCP will being an invasion. Lai Ching-Te completely rejects Beijing’s claims that Taiwan belongs to the People’s Republic of China, and this spells issues for Xi Jinping.
Taiwan’s Elections
Taiwan’s election has three parties running against each other. The Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Lai Ching Te, paints this current election as the choice between democracy or autocracy and blasts Hou You-Ih for being too friendly to Beijing. As reported by France24:
“”Taiwan‘s bustling democracy of 23 million people is separated by a narrow 180-kilometre (110-mile) strait from communist-ruled?China, which claims the island as part of its territory.
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Saturday’s election is being closely watched around the world as the winner will lead the strategically important island — a major producer of vital semiconductors — as it manages ties with an increasingly assertive China.
Vice President Lai Ching-te, the front-runner candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), paints the election as a choice between “democracy and autocracy” — criticizing his main opponent Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) for being too “pro-China”.
Waving flags and carrying posters, their supporters converged in two stadiums located right next to each other in New Taipei City.
“We want peace, not war,” blared the KMT supporters’ signs, while DPP loyalists carried the party’s signature green flags saying: “Choose the right people, walk the right path”.
In Taipei, supporters of third-party candidate Ko Wen-je gathered outside the Presidential Office on the sprawling Ketagalan Boulevard, shouting that “Taiwan’s choice is Ko Wen-je”.
“The leader of the small Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), Ko has criticised his opponents for being caught up in ideological deadlock, attracting voters who say they are sick of talking about China.”The leader of the small Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), Ko has criticised his opponents for being caught up in ideological deadlock, attracting voters who say they are sick of talking about China.””
Why Beijing Wants Taiwan
Beijing’s plan, ever since its founding as the People’s Republic of China involved seizing the island of Taiwan, for one main reason. Breaking through the island Chains. China is unable to project power outside its naval borders because it is geographically locked from the West due to Korea, Japan, Philippines and Taiwan.
Photo Creds to Vermillion China.
China is surrounded by nations that are allied with the United States and recent incursions and events, such as Covid-19 has made relations with other countries strained significantly. Most countries in the Pacific are aligning with Washington instead of Beijing because of the assurance of protection and finance. Recently, the Philippines allowed the United States to build bases on its island of Luzon to allow the United States the capabilities to defend Taiwan if Beijing decides to invade.
If Beijing is allowed to break through the Island chains, it can establish trade routes past the islands and would put US influence in the region under threat.
Photo Creds to Forbes and Statista
One of the major concerns if Taiwan falls to Beijing is that China would have a monopoly on advance processing chips. Due to the Russian-Ukraine war, there is now a high demand for drones on the modern-advanced battlefield. China would be able to cripple the United States ability to produce smart drones or interfere with military capabilities.
One of our first articles, in Warrior Insights, discussed Xi JinPings dilemma about taking Taiwan:
Xi Jinping inherited a country with significant problems. In hopes of trying to outcompete the United States, the country was built on Tofu-Dreg foundation. The country that once was marveled to topple the United States, is now facing decline. Its citizen and upcoming generation are refusing to comply with the CCP’s vision of a brighter future and practically letting the system rot. If Xi Jinping took measures to seize Taiwan by force, then he would have to muster a significant amount of soldiers and potentially risk a situation where there is a large elderly population that cannot be cared for. The economy is declining and in a rapid rate, and the projects that supported China are collapsing at a significant pace.
While it is impossible to predict the future, the possibility of China invading Taiwan is growing. Xi Jinping needs to deliver to the Chinese people that he has “the Mandate of Heaven” by providing a stabilized economy and projecting an image of a strong China. Invading Taiwan would be a potential last resort to maintain his legitimacy as a ruler in China. The dilemma that he faces is that he has to invade Taiwan to maintain his promise, regardless if China is ready for a conventional fight against its neighbors and the United States.
Analysis:
China is beginning to run out of options to seize Taiwan. This current election would have allowed China to take Taiwan peacefully, by installing puppet presidents that are loyal to Beijing. However, the current runner-up presents major issues to Xi Jinping. If he is elected, then Beijing has no other option but to invade Taiwan in a full conventional war. Xi Jinping’s term has been plagued with failures, to the point where individuals were chanting for Xi Jinping and the CCP to step down. In order to solidify his regime, Xi Jinping must seize the island, but if this election places Lai as the upcoming President, then any hope to seize the island peacefully, fades away.