Tackling the Biggest Challenges of 2025

“What to watch” was the most googled question in 2024. Prof. Christian Stadler of the Warwick Business School (who graciously wrote the Foreword to my book) recently went out to ask business leaders a similar question - What trends do we need to watch during the year ahead? the results were quite surprising. While CEOs in developed markets pointed to technology shifts and AI in particular at their top issue into 2025, emerging market CEOs placed political disruption as the top issue. Technology shifts came in well below, ranked#7, behind Climate Change, Supply Chain disruptions, even the prospects of rising inflation. Why is that?

We decided at Ascent Growth Partners Pte. Limited to take on a similar challenge and delve deeper into the challenges that occupy the minds of CEOs, as we enter 2025. Yet rather than use a survey, we looked to the authors of our Best Book Picks of the year to provide us a guide.

Which trends would these selected books highlight? What guidance could they provide to senior leaders, as they embark on 2025?

We are fortunate to have some of these authors join us at the Challenger CEO Community in January for a live conversation about this topic. For now, here is what they guided us towards - Part 1 of a two-part series, informed by our Ten (10) book picks:

1. Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit, authored by Eric Schmidt (ex-CEO of Google) Craig Mundle (who served as Microsoft's Chief research and strategy officer), and the late Dr. Henry Kissinger is a profound exploration of the challenges and opportunities presented by Artificial Intelligence. In this new age, that we have entered, rather than working forward from questions posed by humans, humanity confronts answers provided by AI to questions that no human has asked yet. Genesis explores the impact of AI on eight distinct areas of human activity and draws six scenarios as to how human alongside artificial intelligence could co-exist and continue to evolve. What is starkly different to digital transformations of the past is the pace at which AI is evolving. It will not keep to a business plan, your strategy cadence or any linear forecast. Here we must think in scenarios that co-evolve at varying speeds, ones that shape our ecosystem faster than our internal governance or cultural practices allow for at present. You may want to ask - which of your current scenarios capture the rapid evolution of AI on your organization? Could promised productivity gains point to a much larger transformation that is likely to catch us unprepared in its speed or scale of impact? Would a set of compelling scenarios to inform decisions in 2025, not be a worthy investment of your time, as the new year comes into view?
2. Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk, authored by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, and Paul Swartz, a Senior Economist who co-leads its Center for Macroeconomics, takes a fresh look at the macroeconomic environment, shaped by rising geopolitics, political as well as economic policy choices, and possibly the end of the institutional arrangements that have given us a stable set of global rules to expand our organisations by. What is most compelling is, rather than subscribing to a rigid model or worse, resorting to inaction till things become clear, they propose that human creativity is an untapped source, for us to shape new perspectives and assess true macroeconomic risks. For example, structural changes in the economy such as inflationary pressures persisting beyond the economic cycle, present both downside risks as well as upshifts, fueled by productivity gains that we are witnessing. A question to ponder - What would you be watching for most in 2025, with a deeper appreciation of such macroeconomic risks and potential upsides?
3. Proximity: How Coming Breakthroughs in Just-in-Time Transform Business, Society, and Daily Life, by Kaihan Krippendorff (recipient of Thinkers50 award) and Robert C. Wolcott (adjunct professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business), focus on a prominent trend that would impact industries for years to come. With technological and management innovations enabling us to produce value ever closer to the point of actual demand, the paradigm that has shaped supply chains for many decades is being challenged. Proximity is about far more than being customer centered, acting faster or more responsive. It is a new way of envisioning our interactions with customers, ever closer to the point of consumption. I had the opportunity of meeting Kaihan recently, at the ZeroDX Awards conference in China, and was impressed with his deep thinking that gave rise to this book. Our question - What is different about the digital age at present, that could give rise to new forms of meeting demand closer to the end-user of your products and services? What could happen at the point where the distance from Production to Consumption becomes (or nears) zero? If Kaihan and Robert are right, it could have profound implications for your organization.
4. The Frugal Economy: A Guide to Building a Better World with Less - by Thinkers50’ Navi Radjou, delves into the sharing economy. He makes a compelling argument for a new economy that is already emerging, sharing cases of organisations, from the use of others’ waste products to sharing physical assets, intellectual property, even customers. It is a fascinating read. Here is a question to consider - Where would you like to put limitation on resources, within your business, so it can achieve more?
5. Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World, by Roger Spitz. As a foresight professional, it is a pleasure showcasing the work of fellows in this field, and Roger Spitz presents to us here a remarkable piece of inquiry into how organizations today, more than ever, can be vigilant about navigating uncertainty and disruption. Foresight has evolved markedly and winning growing acceptance over recent years. It provides a fresh approach to understanding the steep slopes, crevasses and hazards of the world's fast-changing environments. Most of all, it can be weaved into how organizations make decisions. Our question - What new sources of insight could inform your strategy efforts in 2025? Could these be integrated into your decision architecture, so that insights are continually added and help inform your most important decisions in the year ahead?

To participate in our conversation with these authors, tap into their work and how fellow CEOs make use of these, join us in January 2025, for a special Challenger CEO event.

Please DM me for an invite.

Have a wonderful week ahead.