Türkiye's Quiet Anniversary, the 10th Anniversary of the OTS, and More - Dominic Brunaccioni
Welcome to the latest article on my series covering the greater Turkic world.
Good evening. As the Israel-Hamas War continues to escalate and change certain policies, the past few weeks have seen a flurry of activity in Turkic affairs, with anniversaries, important meetings, and things to note. Let's dive deep into it!
A Rather Quiet Crowd for the Centennial Anniversary of the Republic of Türkiye:
On October 29th, 2023, the Republic of Türkiye held a celebration as the country celebrated its 100th Republic Holiday, marking the nation's centennial anniversary since the establishment of the modern and secular republic in 1923 that successfully resisted attempts at European colonization, after the fragmentation of the Ottoman Empire.
A drone show, fireworks, and a navy fleet demonstration were all included by Turkish President Erdo?an, but surprisingly no reception or gala for the event was part of the festivities. This puzzled me, as any AKP official certainly would have given the chance for various Turkic and world leaders to attend and demonstrate the foreign policy ambitions that Erdo?an has pivoted his entire career towards.
Meral Aksener, the leader of the opposition ?Y? party, said that the celebration was rather lackluster and the pro-Palestinian protest Erdo?an attended a day prior got more focus from him.
Others interviewed by Associated Press echoed Aksener's comments about the holiday, and alluded to Erdo?an sidelining the holiday likely because of its ties to Atatürk (The founder of the Republic of Türkiye) and secularism, as Erdo?an's likeness is much more of the opposite, i.e. Islamism and a conservative religious approach to policy. Many point to Erdo?an's alleged goal of eclipsing Atatürk's image as the father of the country.
In response to later going as far as even cancelling TV coverage of the celebration, the Turkish Government explained this was due to the "alarming human tragedy in Gaza."
Indeed, amid the backdrop of Türkiye's rather lonely centennial celebration was the looming Israel-Hamas War. The pro-Palestinian protest and rally I mentioned earlier saw Erdo?an designate Hamas as "freedom fighters" and condemn Israel as "an occupier", blaming Tel Aviv for the continued violence in Gaza.
That escalated days ago, when Ankara recalled its ambassador to Israel. In a statement, Erdogan retorted that "We've written Netanyahu off", but stopped short of severing relations with Tel Aviv altogether. Recently, Turkish protestors swarmed the U.S./NATO airbase Incirlik, which houses U.S. troops and about 50 nuclear weapons.
Two weeks ago, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, about Gaza, a meeting which Erdo?an seemed purposefully absent from. Even after two and a half hours of discussion, dialogue reportedly got only as far as a "work in progress", according to Blinken.
This comes as Erdo?an, just yesterday, called Israel a "terror state." Last week, the Turkish Parliament banned Coca Cola and Nestle products in the country, alleging the companies support for Israel.
Western headlines generally summarized the centennial celebration as a holiday out of place, being that the Türkiye of 2023 is starkly different compared to the nation's political and ideological composition in 1923. Still, Erdo?an daunts forward in the domestic and international arenas, regardless of the discourse that ascertain him to be the Islamist usurper of Atatürk. This is the usual political environment for him.
Surprisingly enough, last week he announced reforms to the government's often rebuked fiscal policies, which such changes see a return to U.S. denominated bonds to Ankara's economy.
But why not invite his allies to the centennial celebration? Perhaps the Turkish Government was not being dishonest when they said that it was out of protest for Gaza. While Erdo?an and Fidan in October worked overtime to propose a Turkish-led mediation for Gaza, Erdo?an this past month has been consistently vitriolic towards Israel and much more embracing of Hamas.
Perhaps this is Türkiye picking a side and sticking with it, and will do so even at the cost of its own centennial holiday, a move that benefits Erdo?an regardless.
10th Annual Meeting of the Organization of Turkic States:
On November 3rd, the 10th Anniversary of the Summit of the OTS took place in Astana, Kazakhstan. I've filtered through the 18 page Astana Declaration and outlined what I think is interesting that was discussed and agreed upon at the Summit. If you are looking for last year's Summit and Samarqand Declaration, you can find that here.
Overall, a majority of the document is spent praising individual Turkic bodies and commissions that won't have massive geopolitical implications that are worthy analyzing. However, there are several key issues raised in the declaration that are indeed worth your time.
Azerbaijan has the Narrative:
In my opinion, Azerbaijan got the most out of the 10th Summit. Coming off of a victory against the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in September, President Aliyev needed to stress Turkic investment in its reclaimed lands.
While the Declaration made absent with any reference to the city of Khankendi, it mentioned the city of Shusha 12 times, with the various Turkic conferences and agreements that have been organized in the city this past year, and the future ones to be held there in 2024 that have been set up by the declaration. TURKSOY named Shusha as the Cultural Capital of the Turkic World 2023 last year, and its city Guba is now the agricultural capital of the Turkic World.
This is likely a transition to prepare the Turkic states to begin investing in the entirety of the reclaimed lands that Baku won back two months ago:
领英推荐
Point #11: "Welcome the full restoration of sovereignty of the Republic of Azerbaijan following local anti-terror measures of 19-20 September 2023, reaffirm their support to the reintegration efforts of the Government of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and while expressing appreciation for the support provided so far by Member States to the post-conflict rehabilitation and reconstruction works in Azerbaijan, reiterate their readiness to continue contributions to this end."
We shall wait and see on how exactly, in the coming months, the Turkic States will "continue contributions" for the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
The OTS chose to include a condemnation about the events occurring in Gaza (Point #19). Kazakstan, at the Summit, announced 1 Million USD in aid for the Palestinian people. For Azerbaijan specifically, this is a tight rope to walk. But being that just a few days ago, Azerbaijan's SOCAR scored a new oil deal with Israel, meaning that it can continue to operate alongside Türkiye without many repercussions from Tel Aviv.
Azerbaijan also benefitted when the OTS focused on the very important discussion of transportation and railways, which the Middle Corridor remains the primary objective of the OTS members, as it benefits all of them. But the Declaration even made an interesting and roundabout mention of the Zangezur Corridor for Azerbaijan:
Astana Declaration #61: "... considering the importance of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway Line, as well as the transport communications connecting the East Zangezur Economic region and Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of the Republic of Azerbaijan, China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan- Turkmenistan – Iran and Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway lines."
The word "connecting" is what alludes to the Armenian strip of land that blocks East Zangezur from Nakhchivan. But what is even more intriguing is that last year's Summit Declaration directly used "Zangezur Corridor" (Point #35), while this year the OTS has apparently shied away from the term. This is certainly not by accident. But still, the OTS supporting a Zangezur Corridor is always good news for Azerbaijan, and trouble for Armenia.
Also, if you are wondering, the above passage (Point #61) is the only mention of China and Iran in the entire document. Elsewhere, the European Union and the African Union are mentioned once, the United States twice (Indirectly through Silicon Valley), and Russia not once at all.
The Rest of the OTS:
Certainly, all OTS states benefitted from the Summit.
Türkiye, quite predictably, brought forth impressive and large-scale proposals to further integrate the Turkic nations, proposals like the Turkic World Human Resources Development Institute. Ankara especially expanded discussions on Turkic investment projects, like the Turkic Investment Fund, as well as a committee to deepen trade relations between OTS members.
Kazakhstan secured Astana as the Financial Capital of the Turkic World for 2024, and saw special attention towards finalizing the TURAN Special Economic Zone project in its Turkistan region. Turkistan was also the 2017 Cultural Capital of the Turkic World.
Additionally, the Summit saw focus towards Turkic Alphabet and Language initiatives, which de-Russifying the Kazakh alphabet has been the objective of Astana leadership for several years. The OTS also decided that Aktau, Kazakhstan will be the Cultural Capital of the Turkic World in 2025.
The Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan saw less significant and individualized attention. One thing to take a look at though is in, yet again, Point #61, which is the railways part of the declaration. The "Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar" railway is mentioned, which is a railway that would connect southern Uzbekistan to Pakistan, cutting through Afghanistan.
Of course, the Taliban controlling Afghanistan has made negotiating this deal complicated for Uzbekistan, who is currently working with Kabul on other projects. A meeting was held just two days on November 15th with officials from all 3 countries, and the railway is estimated to cost 7 billion USD. It is curious that the OTS would specifically mention this plan, but of course a stronger Uzbekistan does mean in one way or another, a stronger OTS.
The next OTS Summit will be hosted in the Kyrgyz Republic, which is impactful enough for the nation.
Astana Summit and the Observer States:
Turkmenistan, Turkish Cyprus (TRNC), and Hungary are all observer states to the OTS. The TRNC was allowed observer status last year, Turkmenistan in 2021, and Hungary in 2018.
Mentions of Turkmenistan are always interesting to look out for. The OTS would greatly benefit from Turkmenistan's accession into a full member of the OTS, mainly due to its location for railway access and rich oil deposits. However, due to the nation's positive neutrality doctrine, joining the OTS would be quite controversial.
Still, the OTS has momentum, and it was confirmed that the city of Anev/Anau, Turkmenistan will be the Cultural Capital of the Turkic World in 2024.
The TRNC was mentioned once, with the OTS welcoming Turkish Cyprus joining the Union of Turkic Chambers of Commerce and Industry, as well as the Turkic Parliamentary Assembly (TURKPA), which it did earlier this year.
Hungary was mentioned seven times, thanked for its specific work in drought prevention and tourism training. Additionally, the Economic Cooperation Organization was granted observer status of the OTS.
Other Turkic News for you:
Until?next week?~ Dominic Brunaccioni
Disclaimer:?Sources linked are merely to direct readers towards published media for informational factuality. Media organizations linked do not inherently represent my views, preferences, or my opinions. Readers are advised.
[Photo credit is to the Organization of Turkic States.]