The Middle East Part 1 - Syrian regime collapse and changing face of the Middle East.

"Geopolitics is upstream of national security."

This timeless principle has never been more relevant than today, as the Middle East undergoes a seismic transformation. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria marks the latest chapter in a once-in-a-generation shift that is reshaping the region’s power dynamics. With the destruction of Hamas, the defeat of Hezbollah, and the weakening of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” the Middle East is a much changed landscape than pre-October 7.

For over a 50 years, the Assad’s regime clung to power through brutal repression and since 2015 Russian military support, and Iranian backing. But as the regime collapses, the question is no longer whether Assad will fall, but what comes next. Syria’s future is now a battleground for competing factions, each representing the interests of regional and global powers.

So who are the players? The Syrian National Army (SNA), backed by Turkey, controls parts of northern Syria and is poised to expand its influence. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group, dominates much of Idlib and the coastal regions, while the US-supported Syrian Free Army (SFA) holds key areas in the desert and near Damascus. Meanwhile, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) maintain control over northeastern Syria, representing a critical ally for the West. In the south, the Southern Operations Room (SOR), a coalition of Sunni and Druze groups, holds territory near the Israeli border and could emerge as a key partner for Israel.

The winners and losers of this transformation are becoming clear. Israel, having neutralised threats from Hamas and Hezbollah, emerges as a relative winner, but it faces an uncertain future. The collapse of Assad’s regime leaves a power vacuum near the Golan Heights, raising questions about which groups will dominate Syria’s southern border. Iran, Assad’s primary backer, is a clear loser, as its influence in Syria wanes alongside its broader regional ambitions. Russia, too, finds itself weakened, unable to sustain its support for Assad amid its own challenges in Ukraine.

For Israel, the stakes are high. The Golan Heights, a strategic buffer zone, could become a flashpoint if hostile groups gain control of southern Syria.

The Israelis have just extended their influence inside the buffer zone and captured the strategically important Mt Hermon and have also conducted air strikes against the former Syrian Army's weapons depots and chemical weapons production facilities. While the SOR offers a potential partner, the region’s fragmented landscape makes long-term stability elusive.

The Middle East is no stranger to upheaval, but the current transformation is unprecedented in its scope and implications. As the Assad regime crumbles, the region’s power dynamics are being rewritten. For Israel, Iran, and the broader international community, the challenge now is to navigate this new reality and shape the future of a region in flux.