The Syrian Opposition HNC's Decision to Go to Geneva

[This post has now been supplemented with a video statement by US Secretary of State John Kerry. It will be updated when necessary in comments.]

The Syrian opposition's High Negotiation Committee (HNC) communiqué of Jan. 29 says it would join the Geneva talks after receiving "UN assurances." The HNC added it would "take part in the political process to test the seriousness of the other side through discussions with the UN team."

In its statement, the HNC stressed that its decision to take part in the Geneva talks "was designed to help implement international commitments and meet humanitarian demands as a prelude to the negotiating process as well as to bring about a transitional process through the formation of a transitional governing body with full executive powers."

The statement pointed out that "the decision to participate was made after the HNC received support from friendly and sister countries, especially during a meeting held yesterday [28 January] between the committee and Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir who made it clear Saudi Arabia supported the HNC's decisions, and "a letter from the United nations Secretary-General who reaffirmed support for the implementation of humanitarian commitments, particularly Articles 12 and 13 of UNSCR 2254".

The HNC also said that "the decision was made after reaffirmations by the US Secretary of State John Kerry about his country's support for the full implementation of the UN Security Council Resolution 2254, especially with regard to the humanitarian issues. UNSCR 2254 resolution calls for ending the blockades, releasing detainees, and immediate cessation of indiscriminate bombing of civilians."

The statement says "Kerry reiterated his country's support for bringing about a political transition in Syria through the formation of a transitional governing body with full executive powers in accordance with the Geneva Communiqué of 2012."

The HNC emphasized that its decision to participate in the Geneva talks "was based on the support it received from a number of foreign ministers of sister and friendly countries in addition to a letter from the United nations Secretary-General who reaffirmed support for the implementation of humanitarian commitments, particularly Articles 12 and 13 of UNSCR 2254."

The statement concluded noting that the decision to participate "was also based on a response from the UN envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura" to a letter the HNC sent earlier.

https://bit.ly/1SimAkD

Russian Air Campaign in Support of Assad Continues Uninhibited

Meanwhile the Russian air campaign in the period January 23 - 28, 2016 continued to target opposition-held terrain in an effort to solidify regime gains and increase negotiating leverage in the days immediately prior to the Geneva talks on January 29, writes Jodi Brignola for the ISW.

Russian warplanes targeted over 40 separate locations in Aleppo, Idlib, Latakia, Hama, Homs, Damascus and Deir ez-Zour Provinces from January 26 - 28. Russia's intervention has significantly changed the situation on the ground, enabling significant regime victories in Aleppo, Latakia, and Dera'a and placing the regime in a superior negotiating position after suffering a number of meaningful losses to both the armed opposition in Idlib and ISIS in Eastern Homs in early- and mid-2015.

Russian warplanes continued to support the regime's clearing operations in Northeastern Latakia and target locations in Western Idlib, likely to set conditions to seize the strategic town of Jisr al-Shughour and secure regime control over the high ground in the Jebel al-Akrad and Jebel Turkmen mountain ranges. The Russian air campaign also continued to target opposition-held positions in Northwestern Aleppo and supported regime efforts to tighten the siege on the opposition-held pocket in Northern Homs. In the south, regime forces continued their offensive in Dera'a with the support of Russian air power after fully capturing opposition-held Sheikh Meskin on January 25.

UK Envoy for Syria Gareth Bayley stated that Russian assistance in the Sheikh Meskin operation "reveals the hypocrisy of Russian targeting in Syria," and that "this blatant targeting of opposition groups is deeply concerning, particularly as it comes just days before UN-led negotiations for a political settlement leading to transition in Syria." The UK envoy also criticized Russia for the way Russian warplanes targeted the town, which has essentially left the city leveled.

Russian warplanes continue to indiscriminately target civilian-populated areas, incurring high numbers of civilian casualties. The Russian air campaign targets ISIS-controlled territory in Northeastern Aleppo, ar-Raqqa, and Deir ez-Zour at the expense of civilian casualties.

The activist organization Raqqa Slaughtered Silently reported that the majority of Russian strikes that target ISIS-held Raqqa City hit civilian-populated residential neighborhoods, while no more than 15 percent actually target ISIS's strongholds in the city.

The graphic accessible from the link below depicts ISW's assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia's air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.

https://bit.ly/1SRuYqX


Staffan de Mistura 'optimistic and determined' after meeting opposition in Geneva

The U.N. Syria's envoy Staffan de Mistura said today 31 January that he was "optimistic and determined" following an informal meeting with the opposition delegation, after it had threatened to leave before planned peace talks begin in earnest.

"I am optimistic and determined because it's an historic occasion not to be missed," Staffan de Mistura told reporters as he left a Geneva hotel after an informal meeting with delegates from the High Negotiations Committee.

The meeting took place outside the U.N.'s European headquarters, where talks on ending Syria's nearly five-year conflict have been scheduled.

The meeting came a day after HNC representatives said for now they would not enter the hoped-for indirect talks with representatives of President Bashar al-Assad's government, who began formal talks with de Mistura Friday.

Before agreeing to sit down for the so-called proximity talks, in which de Mistura is set to shuttle between the sides, HNC has demanded that humanitarian aid first gets through to besieged towns, that bombing of civilians ceases and that hundreds of prisoners are released.

"We only came to Geneva after written commitments on the fact that there would be serious progress on the humanitarian issues," HNC spokeswoman Basma Kodmani told reporters.

"We are here for political negotiations but we cannot start those until we have those gestures," she said.

De Mistura meanwhile said it remained unclear if the HNC would agree to an official meeting at the U.N. later today 31 January.

It is "up to the HNC to let us know," he said, stressing though that he was "optimistic, and we are working hard."

He said he had paid the "courtesy call to the HNC" since "they deserved that we pay attention to their own concerns." "I have been explaining what is the plan and what all meetings are about," he said.

He told journalists that HNC would "let you know and let me know when and how they can be part of this exercise."

https://bit.ly/1Su2LVQ


The Opposition High Negotiations Committee's meeting with de Mistura: the UN's take

UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura has met with the delegation of the opposition's High Negotiations Committee (HNC) at their hotel in Geneva following their arrival last night 30January, where UN-mediated intra-Syrian talks began Jan. 29 after days of delays.

According to de Mistura's spokesperson, the envoy paid a courtesy visit to the HNC delegation and held a “short informal meeting [that was] useful in addressing issues relating to the intra-Syrian talks.”

Separately, the UN Deputy Special Envoy for Syria, Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy, paid a courtesy visit to the hotel of the delegation of the Syrian government to discuss practical arrangements related to the next steps in the talks, according to the spokesperson.

he government delegation, headed by the Permanent Representative of Syria to the UN, Bashar Jaafari, held a preparatory meeting with de Mistura on Friday at the opening of the talks.

Speaking to reporters later that day, the Special Envoy said “the issue is obviously that any type of ceasefire discussions, which is obviously something that we are aiming at, apart from substantive discussions on the future of Syria, need two interlocutors […] that is why for us it is very important to have an indication of where we are on the presence of the High Negotiations Committee (HNC)” responding to questions about discussions among the opposition about attending the Geneva talks.

One of their key concerns he said, included the desire “to see a gesture from the government authorities regarding some type of improvement for the people in Syria during the talks, for instance release of prisoners, or for instance some lifting of sieges.”

De Mistura has said the Geneva meetings will start with proximity talks and are expected to last for six months, with Government and opposition delegations sitting in separate rooms and UN officials shuttling between them.

https://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsId=53133#.Vq5SgFKN9Zg


Uninvited PYD delegation leaves Geneva

Representatives from Syria’s largest Kurdish armed group, the PYD (Democratic Union Party) left Geneva Saturday 30 January after being excluded from the negotiations, a Kurdish official and opposition figures said.

Saleh Muslim, co-president of the PYD, left when it became clear he would not be invited to participate, according to PYD official Nawaf Khalil.

The participation of the PYD has been a divisive issue in advance of the Geneva talks. Turkey considers the PYD-YPG a terrorist organization and, more importantly, the HNC claims they are in fact allied with the Syrian government and Russia. They recently received Russian weapons while receiving also weapons from the US to fight the IS. They are also opposed by Iraq's KRG which supports a rival organization, the KNC.

Unlike other groups from outside the HNC that were invited as advisers, the PYD received no invitation from U.N. Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura.

The move not to include the PYD angered Qadri Jamil, a former Syrian deputy prime minister who has become an independent opposition figure and is not part of the HNC. Jamil said the PYD’s military wing has been the most effective force on the ground in Syria fighting the Islamic State group.

“The PYD is a historic part of the Syrian democratic opposition and PYD today is fighting terrorism on the ground and it is a main force,” Jamil told a group of journalists in Geneva on Saturday. Jamil said they are working with the U.N. to resolve the crisis regarding the representation of the PYD.

Bassam Bitar of the opposition’s Movement for a Pluralistic Society said the PYD will most likely be invited to take part in future rounds of negotiations. Russia said the same.

(Mostly based on the AP as in https://hrld.us/1VzA4Gq)

Comment: The problem is that though the danger posed by the IS will be evoked, this is a conference about the Syrian civil war with two sides, the government and the opposition, on how to carry out the implementation of the Geneva I communiqué of 30 June 2012 on putting an end to the Syrian civil war. It is not a meeting where all Syrian ethnic, religious and political groups are consulted. The opposition believes the PYD-YPG has the tacit support of the Syrian government. While it has received weapons from the US to fight the IS under the umbrella of the Syrian Democratic Forces it dominates, the YPG has now also received a shipment of weapons from Russia. It has been practicing ethnic cleansing against Sunni Arabs in ethnically mixed areas such as Tal Abyad and more generally Hasaka province. It has attacked the FSA in the vicinity of Aleppo. No wonder the opposition does not welcome it. There are Kurds in the HNC delegation. The KNC, the PYD's rival, is affiliated with the opposition.

The PYD would probably however have its place in a conference about fighting the IS, or one about consulting all Syrian ethnic, religious and political groups.

Bombs kill 60, wound dozens near Syria Shiite shrine: Syrian state media

While UN envoy Staffan de Mistura and a delegation of the Syrian opposition met in Geneva for the first time, at least 60 people were killed and dozens wounded today 31 January by a car bomb and two suicide bombers in the Sayeda Zeinab district of Damascus, where Syria's holiest Shiite shrine is located, the Syrian interior ministry said.

The IS claimed responsibility for the attacks, according to Amaq, a news agency that supports the group. It said two operations "hit the most important stronghold of Shi'ite militias in Damascus". But Syrian authorities blamed the opposition.

Syrian state television showed footage of burning buildings and wrecked cars in the neighborhood. State news agency SANA, quoting an interior ministry source, said a group of militants had detonated a car bomb near a public transport garage in the neighborhood's Koua Sudan area.

Two suicide bombers then blew themselves up nearby as people were being rescued.

"Bodies were still being pulled from the wreckage," a witness told state news channel Ikhbariyah.

The heavily populated area in the south of the city is a site of pilgrimage for Shiites from Iran, Lebanon and other parts of the Muslim world.

The explosions occurred as representatives of Syria's government and its divided opposition began convening in Geneva for the first U.N.-mediated peace talks in two years.

Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halaki was quoted as saying the attacks were prompted by "terror groups" who sought to "raise their morale after a string of defeats" by the army.

The Sayeda Zeinab shrine area witnessed heavy clashes in the first few years of the war but has since been secured by the Syrian army and Shi'ite militias led by Hezbollah, which has set up protective roadblocks around it.

The shrine houses the grave of the daughter of Ali ibn Abi Taleb, the cousin of Prophet Mohammed, whom Shiites consider the rightful successor to the prophet. The dispute over the succession led to the major Sunni-Shi'ite schism in Islam.

Many Iraqi and Iranian Shi'ite militia groups that have volunteered to fight Sunni Islamist radicals in Syria in a conflict that has heavy sectarian overtones often say they are coming to Syria to defend the shrine and have established their headquarters in the area near the shrine, according to residents.

Reuters as in https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2016/Jan-31/334838-eight-dead-in-two-blasts-near-syria-shiite-shrine-activist.ashx?utm_medium=email&utm_source=transactional&utm_campaign=Newsletter

The opposition and the government side have held each other responsible for the attack, which is likely to have been carried out by a third party, in all likeliness the IS though Al Nusrah or another Islamist group could be involved.


New Russian incursion in Turkish air space

Meanwhile Turkey has complained of a new Russian aerial incursion said to have taken place on Jan. 29. Ankara said a Russian SU-34 warplane breached its airspace despite repeated warnings, accusing Moscow of seeking to escalate tensions and warning of consequences two months after Turkish F-16s downed a Russian jet for violating its territory from Syria.

Turkey said it summoned Russia's envoy to the Foreign Ministry in Ankara, "strongly" condemning and protesting the alleged breach.

The Su-34 entered Turkey’s airspace at 11:46 a.m. local time yesterday 29 January, despite repeated warnings from Turkish radar operators in Russian and English, the Foreign Ministry in Ankara said in an emailed statement.

“Russia will have to face the consequences if it continues these violations of Turkey’s sovereign rights,” said President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, whose country on Nov. 24 became the first NATO member to down a Russian jet since 1952 -at least officially.

Tensions between Ankara and Moscow have been mounting since the November downing of a Russian SU-24 jet by two Turkish F-16s, for what Turkey and its NATO allies maintain was a brief breach of Turkish territory from Syria.

Russia has imposed economic sanctions against Turkey, deployed an S-400 missile system to its Hmeimim base in Syria, and escalated its bombing campaign against Ankara-backed Turkmen rebels in Syria, as part of Moscow’s campaign to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Turkey, the Syrian opposition, Amnesty International and other NGOs have in return accused Russia of killing civilians, supporting "state terrorism" with its backing of the Damascus regime, and fueling the worst refugee crisis since World War II, while NATO has increased the number of AWACS radar planes operating in Turkey.

"Until the November strike, Turkey and Russia had managed to compartmentalize their differences over the Syrian conflict, where Ankara seeks to oust Mr. Assad and Moscow is fighting to bolster the regime", writes The Wall Street Journal. "Presidents Erdo?an and Vladimir Putin had even taken steps to deepen economic cooperation and energy ties, unveiling a natural-gas pipeline project and canceling another Russian gas link to Europe via Bulgaria in late 2014 (...)".

The Russian jet’s alleged breach of Turkey’s airspace on Friday is “a new and concrete sign that the Russian Federation is seeking to escalate problems,” Ankara said.

“We stress once again that the Russian Federation bears full responsibility for any calamitous developments that may arouse from irresponsible actions such as this one.”

https://on.wsj.com/1ZZZZbC

NATO Secretary General's Jens Stoltenberg stated for his part on Jan. 30: "A Russian combat aircraft violated Turkish airspace yesterday, despite repeated warnings by the Turkish authorities. Previous incidents have shown how dangerous such behavior is.

"I call on Russia to act responsibly and to fully respect NATO airspace. Russia must take all necessary measures to ensure that such violations do not happen again.

"I welcome the direct contacts between Ankara and Moscow, and I call for calm and de-escalation.

"NATO stands in solidarity with Turkey and supports the territorial integrity of our Ally, Turkey.

"Allies agreed in December to increase the presence of AWACS early warning aircraft over Turkey, as we continue to augment Turkey's air defenses. This decision precedes yesterday's incident."

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_127562.htm

US Secretary of State John Kerry Video Statement on Syria Negotiations

31 January 2016

For almost five years, the world has watched in horror as Syria has disintegrated into a brutal conflict, killing hundreds of thousands and displacing millions both within and outside the country. Syria today is an unfolding humanitarian catastrophe, unmatched since World War II.

In recent months, a new and broad-based diplomatic initiative was launched, for the first time involving all of the key countries in the conflict. The goal is to reduce the violence, isolate terrorist groups such as Daesh, and create the basis for an inclusive, peaceful, and pluralistic Syria we all seek.

This weekend, we enter a pivotal phase in that diplomatic effort. Officials from the Syrian regime and an inclusive opposition represented by the High Negotiations Committee, begin UN-sponsored negotiations in Geneva. This morning, in light of what is at stake in these talks, I appeal to both sides to make the most of this moment - to seize the opportunity for serious negotiations - to negotiate in good faith, with the goal of making concrete, measurable progress in the days immediately ahead.

The world is hoping that both sides will move quickly to meet the needs of millions of desperate Syrians, to reduce the pressure on neighboring countries, to reduce the levels of migration, and to help restore peace and stability.

The main topics on the agenda for these negotiations include arrangements for a nationwide ceasefire and establishing a path to a political transition that will bring this conflict to an end in accordance with the Geneva Communique of 2012 and UN Security Council Resolution 2254.

Now, while battlefield dynamics can affect negotiating leverage, in the end there is no military solution to this conflict. Without negotiations, the bloodshed will drag on until the last city is reduced to rubble and virtually every home, every form of infrastructure, and every semblance of civilization is destroyed. And that will ensure an increased number of terrorists created by, and attracted to, this fight. This conflict could easily engulf the region if left to spiral completely out of control. That is what the negotiations in Geneva can prevent.

There is also an urgent and compelling imperative required by international law and simple human decency that we take steps now to improve the situation on the ground for the Syrian people.

The humanitarian crisis, already disastrous and unacceptable, is actually growing worse by the day. The numbers alone are staggering. An estimated 13.5 million Syrians are in urgent need now of humanitarian aid. Six million are children. Hundreds of thousands are still trapped in areas where food deliveries are non-existent or rare. Behind each of these numbers is a human being just like any of us - a man, woman, or child experiencing suffering on an almost unimaginable scale.

Shockingly, less than one percent - one person in a hundred, one area in a hundred - of the besieged population of Syria received food aid in all of 2015. And we are not just talking about remote, hard-to-reach areas.

The town of Madaya is just an hour's drive from Damascus. And yet, in recent months, its people have been reduced to eating grass and leaves. How has the regime and the militias that support it responded? By planting land mines and erecting barbed wire to keep relief workers out. This weekend, we heard reports that another 16 people in the town have died due to starvation amid the bitter winter's cold. Other residents have been described as walking skeletons.

And the tragedy in Madaya is far from the only case. Overall, since the beginning of last year, the Syrian regime has received 113 requests from the United Nations to deliver humanitarian aid. Astonishingly, just 13 of these requests have been approved and implemented. Meanwhile, people are dying; children are suffering not as a result of an accident of war, but as the consequence of an intentional tactic - surrender or starve. And that tactic is directly contrary to the law of war.

Let me be clear. The Syrian regime has a fundamental responsibility; all the parties to the conflict have a duty - to facilitate humanitarian access to populations in desperate need, not in a week, not after further discussions, but right now - today.

Under Resolution 2254, the government and all parties have an obligation, as well, to cease bombings and other attacks against civilians - not eventually, again, but immediately. The international community must be united in pressing for compliance. Both governments supporting the opposition and especially governments that are supporting Bashar al-Assad, whose forces control the vast majority of the territory under siege, have this obligation also.

We must not forget what the Syrian people will always remember: Assad and his allies have, from the very beginning, been by far the primary source of killing, torture, and deprivation in this war; and the primary magnet drawing foreign fighters to Syria, giving cause to Daesh.

In recent weeks, colleagues from the International Syrian Support Group have been in constant contact in order to forge a more unified and collaborative approach to de-escalating this conflict, and also to ensure access to besieged areas for humanitarian workers and supplies. The world needs to push in one direction - toward stopping the oppression and suffering of the Syrian people and ending, not prolonging, this war.

Nothing would do more to cut the legs out from under Daesh than a negotiated political solution in Syria that would allow all sides, all parties, all countries, to focus on defeating the terrorist group Daesh once and for all. This imperative was underlined yet again just this morning, when terrorist bombers attacked a religious shrine, killing dozens, in Damascus.

The people of Syria deserve a real choice about the kind of future that they want. Not a choice between brutal repression on one side and terrorists on the other; that's the choice the Assad regime would like to offer. What the people of Syria need is the kind of choice that emerges from a credible political process.This week in Geneva, that political process can get underway. The road ahead remains challenging. Success is not assured. But we have seen through years of savage fighting what the absence of serious negotiation yields.

So I urge all parties to seize this opportunity and go forward with the best interests of their country in mind. The United Nations Security Council has created a framework for bringing the war in Syria to an end. It embraces a ceasefire, humanitarian access throughout the country, a transition process, and elections within 18 months in which Syrians can determine the future of Syria.

So the opportunity now is real and present to achieve a future that ensures Syria's unity, independence, territorial integrity, and non-sectarian character; to keep state institutions intact; and to protect the rights of all Syrians, regardless of ethnicity or religious denomination.

We call upon the parties in Geneva to take the first urgent steps and not to miss the chance this moment presents.


https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2016/01/251899.htm