Syria: Refugees and Türkiye-Israel Relations

Over the last week I spoke to Nektaria Stamouli from?@Kathimerini English Edition and Alberto Magnani from Il Sole 24 Ore on Syria and Turkiye-Israel relations in light of the developments in Syria. Below you will find my quotes and a more detailed analysis reflecting my views on the recent warmongering regarding Israeli-Türkiye relations over Syria.

@Ekathimerini: “Pinar Dost, non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Turkey Programs, said that the Syrian war has been an integral part of all Turkish citizens’ lives since it began 14 years ago.

“Even a regular Turkish citizen likely knows the names of various cities and towns in Syria, as we saw this map every day on television. We lost our soldiers there. We have suffered from ISIS attacks and we have been living with some 4 million Syrians for more than a decade now, and they were not contained in refugee camps, but they were part of our lives.”

As Dost said, even before the fall of the Syrian regime, over 600,000 refugees had already left, and since then, according to Turkish migration authorities, 200,000 more have returned. This is a significant figure, with the number of registered Syrians having fallen from 3.7 million to 2.9 million today, according to official figures.

“It is not a secret that the government is trying to ensure that as many refugees as possible can return to Syria voluntarily,” said Dost. “If the new regime in Syria succeeds, we will see more returning to their country in the long term. But the government knows very well that not all refugees will go back.”

@Il Sole24Ore: “I consider the harsh rhetoric used by both sides as a form of intimidating and domestic political maneuvering. Both Israel and Turkey are very pleased with the decrease of the Iranian influence in Syria and in the region. Both countries support the existence of a strong Syrian state where where terrorists cannot gain strength, and both Turkey and Israel have been militarily present in Syria for over a decade without any conflicts between them”.

And my short analysis on Türkiye-Israel relations:

Turkey and Israel has gone through very difficult relations, with leaders using very harsh rhetoric toward each other, but they knew how to act in line with their national interests when needed.

Erdo?an and Netanyahu are pragmatic leaders who managed to get along even after an incident like the Mavi Marmara. Immediately after the Mavi Marmara, Turkey agreed to the deployment of NATO radar station at Kürecik, one of the most important assets against Iran. And this base was active and useful in the attacks directed from Iran to Israel last April.

We are facing a propaganda campaign, fueled by some circles in the U.S., claiming that Turkey and Israel have opposing interests in Syria and that escalation is inevitable. I consider the harsh rhetoric used by both sides as a form of intimidation and domestic political maneuvering. Both Israel and Turkey are very pleased with the decrease of the Iranian influence in Syria and in the region. Both countries support the existence of a strong Syrian state where where terrorists cannot gain strength, and both Turkey and Israel have been militarily present in Syria for over a decade without any conflicts between them; everyone’s area of activity was clear.

The Golan Heights was not occupied yesterday, and its future is an issue of the new Syrian administration, not Turkey's. Now, with the fall of the regime and the coming to power of a group close to Turkey may change the situation, but I do not foresee a possible military confrontation between these countries. However any open military support by Israel to the YPG/PYD would be very harmful to relations in which case some confrontation may happen.

Turkey’s NATO ally, the United States, has been supporting the YPG-PYD for many years, but they have not entered into a direct conflict and have coordinated their operations. I believe the U.S. would never allow that its two valuable Allies in the region get engaged into a conflict.

Turkey and Israel may disagree on Gaza, but they can indirectly come to an understanding about Syria through their common friends and partners. I also believe that once the Netanyahu government is gone, it may take some time, but the relations between the two countries will eventually normalize again.