Synthetic Conversions: Your Secret Weapon for Upper-Funnel Wins

If you’ve ever run online advertising campaigns, you know that “conversions” lie at the heart of every ad platform (Meta Ads, Google Ads, etc.). Traditionally, advertisers place tracking pixels on their websites or use Conversions API (cAPI) to track critical actions such as leads, sign-ups, or purchases. This real-time conversion data flows back to the ad platform to:

1. Measure performance: Advertisers see which campaigns drive the most conversions.
2. Optimize bidding: Ad platforms automatically adjust bids to get more of these conversions.
3. Target relevant audiences: Platforms use conversion data to find and reach users with a higher likelihood to convert, refining targeting over time.

In other words, the signal of “what’s working” all comes from conversions. That works well for lower-funnel activities (where people buy quickly). But it poses challenges for upper-funnel campaigns, where conversions don’t happen right away.

The Upper-Funnel Tracking Problem

When people engage with your brand in the early stages of the journey—researching products, learning about your offerings—they rarely convert on that first visit. In fact, many will come back later from different devices or channels (e.g., direct, organic, or retargeting) to complete the purchase.

However, here’s the problem:

• No immediate purchase = No signal sent to the ad platform.
• The ad platform interprets “no conversion” to mean the ad or visitor was irrelevant.
• Because the ad platform only “sees” signals from lower-funnel actions (like purchases), it optimizes towards those last-click or bottom-of-the-funnel events.
• As a result, upper-funnel campaigns are undervalued, under-optimized, and often fail to scale.

Example: A potential customer clicks on an Instagram Ad while researching a product on their lunch break at work. They get introduced to your brand, read about your offering, but leave without buying. Two weeks later, from another device at home, they search for your brand name directly, land on your website again, and make a purchase. The bottom-funnel “direct” source gets the conversion credit in the tracking system—but the upper-funnel Instagram Ad, which actually introduced them to your brand, gets ignored.

This gap in data is why ad platforms typically “reward” bottom-funnel tactics like retargeting and brand campaigns. They’re the only ones triggering conversions that flow back as signals. Hence, the upper-funnel loses out.

Introducing Synthetic Conversions: A Game-Changer for the Upper-Funnel

Here’s where Synthetic Conversions come in. Powered by something like a Visit Scoring technology, Synthetic Conversions enable advertisers to:

1. Evaluate the incremental value of every visit. Even if a visitor doesn’t convert immediately, a system powered by predictive modeling can assign a probability that the visitor will convert later—regardless of their device or channel.
2. Send a “positive signal” (Synthetic Conversion) to the ad platform if that visit has a high probability of future purchase or exhibits significant engagement.
3. Indicate a monetary or ‘conversion value’ that represents this upper-funnel engagement and likelihood to convert in the future.

In simpler terms, if an upper-funnel campaign drives visitors who may convert later, you still want to reward the platform. By sending a Synthetic Conversion signal, you inform the ad network that this was a valuable visit, even if the user didn’t purchase immediately. Over time, Meta Ads or Google Ads starts optimizing towards these high-value visits—no longer ignoring them due to lack of a direct, immediate purchase.

How It’s Done: An Example with SegmentStream’s Visit Scoring

Implementation can vary, but here’s how SegmentStream marries Visit Scoring technology with Synthetic Conversions:

1. Visit Scoring: Every visit is assessed in real-time. Factors include the user’s behavior on-site (time on page, pages viewed, engagement with key elements), past interactions, and predictive modeling of conversion likelihood.
2. Threshold for Synthetic Conversions: If a visit reaches a certain threshold, let’s say a 20% predicted probability of a future purchase, a Synthetic Conversion is triggered.
3. Transmission to Ad Platforms: SegmentStream then sends this Synthetic Conversion data (including an indicative value) back to the advertising platform via either the pixel or Conversions API. For example, it might say, “This visit is worth 20% of a typical purchase value,” because that’s the predicted conversion likelihood.
4. Continuous Optimization: Meta Ads or Google Ads now has an extra signal that says: “This visitor was quite promising!” The ad platform’s algorithms start adjusting bidding and targeting to find more users who display similar patterns, effectively expanding your potential customer base earlier in the funnel.

Example:

• A user clicks on your Instagram Ad, visits the site, and explores three product pages in depth. They leave.
• Without Synthetic Conversions, the ad platform sees zero conversions and devalues that campaign.
• With Synthetic Conversions powered by SegmentStream, a signal is sent when the user shows strong engagement. The ad platform recognizes that the upper-funnel campaign brought in a user with high purchase intent—even though the user might only buy later via another channel or device.

Real-World Use Cases: Where Synthetic Conversions Shine

We often see our clients implementing Synthetic Conversions based on Visit Scoring, but interestingly, they rarely use these conversions for lower-funnel optimization or strictly for Paid Search or Shopping campaigns. Instead, Synthetic Conversions become essential for:

• Awareness campaigns in Meta Ads, TikTok Ads, and other social platforms.
• Google Display to reach broader audiences.
• YouTube and Demand Gen campaigns that focus on user engagement and brand lift.
• Performance Max, where multiple signals are crucial to drive holistic campaign performance.

Most clients report at least a 2–3x improvement in performance when they switch from optimizing for clicks or impressions to optimizing for Synthetic Conversions. The reason is simple: clicks and impressions often don’t correlate strongly with final revenue, whereas Synthetic Conversions do. By sending a value-based signal to the ad platform that aligns closely with potential future revenue, businesses can dramatically improve how their campaigns are optimized and scaled.

Conclusion: Why Synthetic Conversions Give You an Unfair Advantage

By leveraging Synthetic Conversions, you can fundamentally reshape your advertising strategy and gain significant competitive advantage:

1. Access Cheaper Audiences: Upper-funnel audiences are typically less expensive because most advertisers prioritize last-click conversions. By valuing upper-funnel signals, you can discover new, relevant audiences early.
2. Enhance Bidding Algorithms: You give the ad platform a broader data set to learn from—no more black-and-white, “no purchase = no value” situation.
3. Scale for Growth: Instead of being stuck in the lower-funnel “conversion loop,” you can expand your brand presence and attract new customers who require more than one click to buy.
4. Outpace Competitors: Most advertisers still rely on last-click or last-touch conversions. With Synthetic Conversions, you’ll be targeting high-intent users before your competition even knows they exist.

In a world where sophisticated buyers conduct extensive research, use multiple devices, and frequently switch channels, Synthetic Conversions ensure that no valuable visitor journey goes unnoticed. By sending accurate, predictive signals to your ad platforms, you steer them to optimize for real future buyers—whether they convert on the first click or the fifth.

Bonus (DTC Podcast About Synthetic Conversions):

Ready to harness the power of Synthetic Conversions for your upper-funnel campaigns? Connect with me here on LinkedIn or visit SegmentStream to learn more about how we can help you transform your ad performance