A Symbolic Blow – The Meaning Of Kursk (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #360c)

The war between Ukraine and Russia continues to surprise. The latest example is the ongoing Ukrainian invasion of Kursk Province in Russia. If you were surprised by this spectacular turn of events, count yourself in the majority, along with Ukraine’s NATO allies and the Kremlin. There has been widespread disbelief that the Ukrainian Army has moved 50 kilometers deep into Kursk Province. In a war that has been filled with repeated instances of the subverting or upending of expectations, the Ukrainian Army’s invasion of Kursk ranks near the top of shocking developments in a conflict that has been full of them.?

Crossing Lines – Pushing The Boundaries

The last time a foreign army had the audacity to invade Russian territory (as part of the Soviet Union) was in 1941. What makes this time different is that Ukraine has weathered two and a half years of Russian aggression against it. Now the Ukrainians are taking the fight to Russia. Call it an incursion, invasion, or counterattack, none of those terms can do justice to just how spectacular the invasion of Kursk has been. Thus far, the Pentagon and NATO have kept quiet about the invasion. They were as shocked as the rest of us about the invasion and have chosen silence as a tacit form of approval. Meanwhile, an ashen faced Vladimir Putin appeared to receive the shocking news from his military leadership. He called a state of emergency, ordered the evacuation of civilians from Kursk Province (up to 120,000 by August 12th), and then disappeared for a couple of days. No one in the Kremlin saw the invasion coming.

Word is that the Russian military leadership did know it was coming. If so, they ignored the signals to their own detriment. The failure to take proactive measures which might have combatted the attack is another in a long line of such failures throughout the war. The rigid thinking, and vertical power structure of the Russian military hierarchy and Kremlin has proven unable to adapt quick enough to thwart or contain the attack. To further exacerbate matters, no one in the Kremlin seems to know what the Ukrainian forces plan to do next. Will they consolidate their gains or continue moving forward? When will the Russian military counterattack? These questions will be answered in the coming days and weeks. The Ukrainian invasion is a problem that demands an immediate response. Vladimir Putin’s credibility is at stake. All is not well in the Kremlin, nor is it in Kursk.?

Battle Hardened - Echoes of the Eastern Front

The only people not surprised by the invasion of Kursk seem to be the Ukrainian leadership and their armed forces who are continuing to advance. They have achieved what everyone other than themselves thought impossible. Not only have they invaded Russian territory, but for the first time in history, another country has invaded a nuclear armed power. Among other things, this has dealt a blow to the Putin regime’s threats of nuclear escalation. That is unless Putin wants to use a nuclear weapon on his own soil. There is much more at stake with this operation than Russian territory. The Ukrainians have dealt a symbolic blow to the Kremlin, one that is mightier than the military one. Symbolism has always been of the utmost importance to the Putin regime.

Since Putin came to power in 2000, the Great Patriotic War (Nazi Germany’s Invasion of the Soviet Union during World War II) has been venerated as a symbol of Russian greatness. Putin has used it to stir up nationalism and restore a sense of pride in the Russian people following the dreadful period between the fall of the Soviet Union, and Putin’s rise to power. In the pantheon of great Soviet victories during the war, the Battle of Kursk ranks behind only the Battles of Moscow and Stalingrad. Kursk was the largest armored battle in history. There were 8,000 tanks fought for seven-weeks across a sprawling area. It was the last major offensive the Germans would launch on the Eastern Front. Their defeat?meant the Soviets were on the offensive for the duration of the war.

Now a comparatively tiny Battle of Kursk is occurring again, but its importance goes well beyond the size and scale of the current operation. The Russians have suddenly lost the initiative in the war. Prior to the invasion, they were grinding forward, putting the outgunned and outmanned Ukrainian forces on the defensive in the Donbas region. That looked likely to continue for the rest of this year. Now no one knows what will happen next other than Russian forces being redeployed from other areas of the front to stop the Ukrainian advance in Kursk. This will reduce the momentum and scale of any Russian offensive operations in Ukraine. The Russians will then try to either surround or push the Ukrainian forces out of Kursk.?

High Stakes – Securing The Border

The Kremlin cannot allow the Ukrainians to occupy territory in Kursk. Putin sells himself as the protector of the Russian motherland. To allow the Ukrainians to have a foothold in any part of Russia is an intolerable threat to the regime’s narrative. If Putin cannot protect Russia from foreign incursions, then his support from rank-and-file Russians will plummet. The war has always been a hard sell, but Putin has used various inducements to ensure the Russian people are compliant. If the Ukrainians can conquer and occupy territory in Russia, the Russians may begin to doubt the war effort and the man most responsible for the invasion. The invasion of Kursk puts the regime’s future at stake.

The Ukrainian strategy has yet to be discerned. The operation has already been a success no matter what happens next. It will be interesting to see whether Ukraine can build on that success. The Ukrainian leadership could use the territory they have captured in Kursk Province as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with the Kremlin. Another scenario could be that the Ukrainians want to use Kursk as a way of undermining Putin’s psychological hold over the Russian people. The Ukrainians could try to hold on to the territory because it draws Russian forces away from other fronts. Ukraine’s strategy will become clearer in the days ahead. As will Russia’s strategy to dislodge the Ukrainians. Whatever happens, the Battle of Kursk is an event that will define the war’s future.