SXSW a year later: Is VR still really a thing?

My predictions for 2017 and beyond

Last year I left SXSW with a mad crush on VR. And apparently so did many others. But unlike these others I kept pursuing my crush, writing more about commercializing VR and even launching a show in VR exploring where it’s going commercially, cinematically, and socially. 

So it hurt a little bit when I trapped long-time friend, bleeding-edge tech enthusiast and VR evangelizer Robert Scoble at SX this year to talk about my crush, and he calls it kind of ugly.

“VR’s great,” he said, “But it’s all about MR (mixed reality) now.” 

I chatted with another respected friend (who shall remain nameless, given he’s the founder of a VR company) who shared that, “frankly, AR’s going to be the bigger market opportunity.”

OK fine. Let’s say that both Robert and my entrepreneurial friend are right. I still think VR is what is going to ultimately capture our collective imagination around anything that appears in 3D and seems real but isn’t. 

It may be more practical to remain grounded in our real environment, without big rigs strapped to our heads. but let’s not split hairs quite yet, especially while the jury is still out on how we’re going to make VR go mainstream.

After this year’s SXSW, I still have plenty of reasons to be excited about VR.

1. We’re still scratching the surface of converting cool cinematic experiences into VR.

I got to experience Felix & Paul Studio’s fantastic short film featuring Cirque de Soleil in a Samsung Gear. (There’s really nothing like thinking you’ve just had your eyebrows singed off by watching someone throwing fire at you in VR). F&P are moving the medium forward by really picking their projects and selecting naturally compelling subjects to film in VR. 

I had noted last year that while I appreciated that some of the more mainstream players were attempting short-form films and documentaries, some of these attempts would have been better served as 2D, or “flattie” films. VR invites you to look up, down, and behind you. And while your subject may call your attention to one direction, it needs to offer you something on every plane. 

Bravo to IMAX, Universal Studios, and Positron, whose partnership is showing us how cinematic experiences can be amplified to the optimal effect. For the reboot of The Mummy Franchise, starring Tom Cruise, they demoed at SXSW how a key plane crash scene could be experienced in VR without barfing: Positron's Voyager chair (seen above) guided users' attention and simulated pitch and movement, triggering viewers' brains to go along with the experience.

Prediction for Cinematic VR: IMAX is a natural first mover here and will create these experiences at scale, and projects like the Steven Spielberg-backed startup Dreamscape Immersive will enable people to experience premium, cordless cinematic VR. But I’ll up the ante and suggest that these players will eventually build the viewer into the venue, and develop experiences that enable full VR immersion without a device, period.

2. VR is a no-brainer for helping us develop muscle memory

Watching this application of VR to a drum kit simulation at Capital Factory's VR Lab made me think, if only they had this back in 2003, when Lane from Gilmore Girls struggled to figure out how she could practice drumming without her strict Korean mother knowing she had joined a band. But alas, VR hindsight is always 20-20…

The Nintendo Wii was a precursor to this application of learning by doing, only it was limited to the system’s range of motion. I can’t say that my prowess in bowling on the Wii translated to my game in real life. But in VR it could—with the right peripherals. 

I just used the hand sensors for the Oculus Rift for the first time and while I can finally point and move my hands when I speak in VR, I still cannot move my fingers individually, or give avatars a hug. Just think: If the peripherals fully simulated your hands and more realistic movements (and we’re getting there), you could practice sign language, improve your golf swing, fly a plane, knit a scarf, properly chop an onion, or—my personal favorite—learn Swedish massage.

Prediction: We’ll learn to do things in real life by doing them in VR. But progress in this application of VR is reliant on peripherals that can simulate real-life objects, and on integration with IoT technology to enable the best experience. 

3. "VR is an Empathy Machine" …but let’s not get carried away

I’d like to take credit for that quote, but actually it was Chris Milk of VR company Within who said that in his TED talk. While I agree that VR can enable empathy, I’ll caveat that while VR can giveth empathy, it can also taketh away. 

I had very mixed feelings about seeing the usual shoot-em-up applications of VR to gaming. While some of the best graphical examples of VR are in gaming, so many of the games are rooted in violence. All I could think was, “Great, just what we need to simulate in our society—shooting people.“ And even in more social-consciousness-raising instances, like this one, where users could experience the omnipresent dread of living in a war-torn Syrian city, VR may certainly raise awareness and empathy, but also PTSD.

To inspire empathy we need to think like film directors: What experiences will pull at the heartstrings without snapping them? Van Jones’s Project Empathy gets it right with this video that enables us to empathize with a convict, in prison for murder, through experiential glimpses into his existence in solitary confinement, interspersed with his story of getting out of jail and raising a family. 

Prediction: If there’s one thing we need in this divided social climate, it’s empathy, and VR can help us cultivate it. But just as there are poor cinematic VR experiences, there will be experiences that move short of the mark of building empathy that may instead generate fear, voyeurism, or exclusive escapism.

4. The best VR will enable practical, everyday interactions

Let’s face it: Strapping yourself into a tethered rig that is compatible with only certain operating platforms is not practical. But at SXSW I saw how eventually VR could help simplify our lives.

I experienced Walmart's VR shopping simulation at Austin’s Capital Factory and could see experience and utility at its best. Wearing a Rift with hand sensors, I “pushed” my shopping cart through the grocery section aisle. A shopping assistant hologram in the upper-right corner would remind me that I needed something—say, milk—and with the hand sensors I could grab a gallon of whole milk and drop it into my cart. As items are being placed in, or taken out of, my cart, a running total of my purchases was displayed. 

It may not make sense TODAY to transition into a VR context for shopping when I could easily do it on a mobile app. But in the future, a VR experience could enhance shopping by allowing me to browse aisles and select things I didn't originally have on my list, or see how an article of clothing might fit before I purchase, as seen above on GAP's Virtual Fitting Room application, or even connect with others who are also at the virtual mall who can provide real-time product reviews. And consider when all of my devices and apps are integrated with my VR account, and I can pause a film I’m watching in VR to purchase something I need desperately, drop money into my kid's school lunch account, or check on a flight status, without actually leaving VR.

Prediction: Once we simplify the technical requirements necessary for premium VR experiences, the practical applications behind VR will be as diverse and necessary as those on our mobile phones.

5. People are vain

Re-entering the Comcast party, where I’d watched the immersive and engaging Felix and Paul film in VR, I was a bit disoriented and I had a red ring around the upper half of my face, an effect I call “VR-Face” that lasts sometimes for hours. This prompted people to ask me, had I just been in VR, or Tahoe?

One of my friends, tempted to demo VR, opted not to: “I just did my hair and makeup,” she explained.

Let’s face it, while being in VR can be fun and exciting, and even transformational, it can eff up your hair and makeup. And watching people engaging in VR is not the most exciting thing in the world. Witness below, when I, excited to be watching Cirque de Soleil in VR, asked to have my photo taken experiencing it. 

Underwhelming, yes?

No disrespect to the Gear—it still offers a fantastic experience. 

And then shortly afterward, having my picture taken with my friend Adam in Snap Spectacles.

Sure, Spectacles provide “light AR” versus a “heavy” premium VR experience and are meant for completely different experiences, but your average mid- to- late-adopter will buy Spectacles because they look cool wearing them (just ask anyone who previously worked at Google Glass). Optics like these have to be part of the package when commercializing a technology. I’ll take a cool Vive T-shirt for now.

And I’ll confess: I care about how I look in VR. One of the first questions I asked the team at AltSpace before launching my show on their platform was, can we do a little something-something with my avatar?

AltSpace currently has some avatar customization capability, but it’s limited. They pointed out that even if they could develop an avatar that looked exactly like me, or a “better” version of me, seeing my real likeness disembodied from my real person would be perceived as (technical term) “creepy” to people. Seeing more realistic representations with today's tech would be like living in a grownup version of the movie Polar Express. 

Sure, the characters look "real" but something's slightly off.

Plus, it’s been pointed out to me, many people love VR because they can transform their physical selves and look completely different in VR. This begs for some interesting innovations around avatar customization and real-time “enhancement” technologies that can brighten you up, slim you down, superimpose a better nose, or even make you sound different. 

Prediction: VR hardware will not penetrate the mainstream until we look good wearing it. Winners in the space will be light, cordless, and will make us look good both in and outside the platform.

Bonus prediction, inspired by above prediction: Dating someone you met in VR will become a thing; as will the eventual disappointment you’ll feel when you meet your virtual soul mate in real life and realize he/she isn't flawless.