SWOTing the Silk Road

2nd century BC. The Han dynasty (China) faced constant raids from Xiong Nu. The Xiong Nu were a confederation of nomadic peoples who were adept horsemen on the Han’s northern and western borders. The Han only had small pony-like horses, which were unsuited for battle – they were at a natural disadvantage to the Xiong Nu, who could strike suddenly and without warning.

There was one solution. In the Ferghana Valley (Krygyzstan) far west of the Han, were the famed "blood-sweating" horses (汗血馬). These horses were the strongest and fastest known - a potential major upgrade to the Han's current steeds. So the Han emperor sat down with his generals and analyzed the Strengths and Weaknesses of the venture, which allowed them to identify Opportunities and Threats.

One does not simply walk into the Ferghana Valley. It was 10,000km away with the Xiong Nu in the way. Despite that, the Han army was large and could withstand any raids from the Xiong Nu along the way. So the Han emperor sent expeditions into the Ferghana to obtain the "blood-sweating horses". The success of the expeditions led to increased military capabilities of the Han, allowing them to defeat multiple Xiong Nu nations and open up the west for trade. This was the establishment of the Silk Road - kick-starting globalization by connecting the 3 continents of Asia, Europe and Africa.

My next article is a bit closer to home - about how I helped my friend's startup with opportunity/threat risk analysis.

How did we get here? See my previous articles:

• Do you really want to live forever?
• Seeking the next pot of black gold