Will the Swedish model of dealing with the virus be eventually proven to be the most successful?

Just from the start, before you begin reading, let me state the following:

Start disclaimer header

1. I am an information systems engineer and have zero medical qualifications. Data and workflow analysis are my specialties.

2. I was raised in Eastern European mentality and I live in Israel. So, no political correctness from me. This post contains harsh language, but no profanities. So, everyone can read, but do not expect an apology if you feel insulted for whatever reason.

End disclaimer header

And now to what I actually want to say.

2 months ago our incompetent politicians celebrated the end of COVID-19 epidemic. Threw a big party and encouraged everyone to follow suit. Today they are running scared like cockroaches, who had boiled water spilled on them, blaming everyone but themselves for the second wave Israel is currently experiencing.

This second wave itself feels very different from the first one.

First, statistics

In less than 5 weeks we had over 12K new confirmed cases, but only 35 deaths and less then 100 people in serious condition in the hospitals. Nothing like it was in the spring.

Second, the public mood

We had pretty much enough of curfews. The lock-down during the first wave devastated our economy and no one believes that it will survive another one. Even our stupidest and pig headed politicians know that if a new lock-down is installed, there will be a mutiny and even the IDF will not enforce it. In addition, there is a strong belief here that the Swedish experience presented a high limit of what will happen (number of patients, deaths, etc) if we "do nothing". "Doing nothing" in this case means that we open all businesses and schools and try as hard as we can to keep our elderly and sick healthy (not that anyone really believes that it is possible). No one is yet saying it out loud, but I have a feeling that in a week or too they will.

And, of course, the trust in government has eroded. So, the new limitations on public life are met with "idiots" at best and "enemies of the people" as a prevalent reaction. So, even if something smart comes out of our government now, no guarantee it will be accepted by the public.

And, now for the punch line

I do not really know the situation in Europe right now. I am aware that in countries, who successfully reduced the number of active cases, the school system is not yet functioning. Ours is working almost full thrust in lower grades, to allow parents to work (average number of children in a typical Israeli family is 3.1). So, in the beginning of Autumn - all bets are off for Europe. The chances for vaccine before spring 2021 are so low, not even worth discussing. I very much doubt that the generous economic policies of European countries (unemployment payments) will be sustainable for so long.

So, if I had to bet, I would say we are all headed for the Swedish model starting September. I assume that in Europe the doctors will have more tools to prevent and treat serious cases than they had in February and March. May be, even find a way to treat medium level patients at home. Since the public mood everywhere will be abysmal anyway, restaurants, movie theaters, and the rest of the face-to-face entertainment industry will have a hard time. Everyday workforce regeneration (through rest & leisure) is likely to become a challenge, people have to rest in addition to working.

People will also be more careful. If you have a family, you will likely avoid in-door out-of-your-home entertainment and use open spaces. If open spaces are not available due to weather or cold climate, everyone will stay home. And senior homes will become prisons in all but the name.

So, that is my conclusion - the Swedish model might have poorly executed the first time, but it appears the most viable option for the winter in Israel and most of Europe. In my opinion at least.