SWB: Recharging Civilization

From: Electrek.com re RethinkX -Tony Seba*:

“We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most profound disruption of the energy sector in over a century. Like most disruptions, this one is being driven by the convergence of several key technologies whose costs and capabilities have been improving on consistent and predictable trajectories — namely, solar photovoltaic power, wind power, and lithium-ion battery energy storage. Our analysis shows that 100% clean electricity from the combination of solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) is both physically possible and economically affordable across the entire continental United States as well as the overwhelming majority of other populated regions of the world by 2030."

"Adoption of SWB is growing exponentially worldwide and disruption is now inevitable because by 2030 they will offer the cheapest electricity option for most regions. Coal, gas, and nuclear power assets will become stranded during the 2020s, and no new investment in these technologies is rational from this point forward."

RethinkX also states that we need to make the right choices and that there must be policy support for technological innovation.

I am moved by Bill Gates' poignant exhortation in chapter 10 of;

about the need to fully involve government in investing in the R&D to support creative disruption. In order to achieve Tony Seba's exponential disruption by 2030, the structured trade finance process of U.S. Eximbank must be streamlined and combining forces with BPI France and other multilateral Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) would go a long way to getting information on buyers in Asia, South America and Africa quickly.

As Walter Wriston stated in the 1980s, in the future, all that banks will sell is information.

We as individuals, communities, industries, regions, and entire nations need to make the right choices today. That process must begin with an understanding of what is possible.

Excess energy = opportunity

Further, the report says that green energy will produce a larger amount of energy overall, which will in turn lower cost and create opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship. It compares the green energy revolution to the rise of the internet: “What happened in the world of bits is now poised to happen in the world of electrons.”

Australia’s Renew Economy points out that Seba was “one of the few analysts to correctly forecast the plunging cost of solar over the last decade.” Dr. Adam Dorr, a report co-author, says [via Renew Economy]: "There is a misconception that too much solar and wind energy is a problem. That is looking at the equation through the old fossil fuel system lens, and doesn’t recognize the fundamentals of disruption. Sunlight and wind are free, and it is irrational to curtail the nearly costless clean energy we produce with them. As with other technology disruptions, it is a mistake to ask how the existing system will accommodate SWB."

"The grid as we know it will rapidly evolve into a larger, more flexible, diverse, and capable system, just like the landline telephone network evolved into the Internet. Instead we must ask, ‘How can a new energy system based on SWB minimize costs and maximize benefits at every level of society and the economy’?

Electrek’s Take

This disruption approach is pretty exciting stuff. The internet/landline telephone network comparison is an effective way to convey RethinkX’s message. Who would have thought we’d no longer need landlines or cable television? Or could make international phone calls — by video, no less, Jetsons-style — for free through the internet? AT&T et al. probably aren’t happy about that, but there’s nothing they can do but adapt — and they have — because most of the world has Wi-Fi now, along with apps that allow us to make those calls and watch those shows. And technology continues to evolve quickly.

So if we apply this thinking to green energy and energy sources, what’s holding us back from rapid evolution? We need to shift our thinking, break up monopolies, change our policies, and embrace change. It’s time for utilities and fossil-fuel giants to adapt — just as BP declared that it’s time to adopt renewables in September,— and innovators, keep on innovating. You’re doing great things.

My Comment

Einstein stated the problem with technological innovation. Without moral direction, he indicated, technological innovation is "like putting an axe in the hands of a pathological murderer."

SWB and North-South Trade

Historically, the Northern hemisphere has primarily  been consumed with exploiting the Southern hemisphere under the guise of perpetrating a "mission civilizatrice." This violent, exploitive and abusive mission has sought The Prize. First, it was silver and gold and after Churchill convinced the British Admiralty to convert its fleet from coal, it was oil; black gold;

the epic quest for oil, money and power. 

Then came Jeremy Rifkin's premature assertion of our arrival at the Empathetic Civilization;

an assumption which is turned on its head by the events of January 6th;

and German leadership compliance with Putin's Nordstream 2 project;

the reprise of American geopolitical stupidity;

America's false patriotism;

its embrace of superficiality and of the denigration of courage;

competence and women;

Vaclav Smil; 

Yergin and Rifkin, have all opined that civilization is built on cheap energy.  Bill Gates has endorsed Smil’s thoughts and has added that political science and socio-economics also come into play when the building of civilization is concerned. This building of civilization is now existential, as Gates exhorts in his book;

and governments have an enormous role to play in exponential disruption.

The U.S., my country, is not in a good position to capitalize on its "mission econometrice" because of what Einstein postulated as the prevalence of mediocrity of thought;

The Opportunity

The U.S. has the extraordinary opportunity to capitalize on and to benefit from North-South trade; in SWB. The entire insolated, photoelectric endowed area of the world;

and such largely overlooked areas of the world as Ukraine, Central Asia and Africa;

can be turned into generators of clean photoelectric energy and contribute to the reduction of the 51 trillion metric tons of gaseous effluent added to our biosphere.

A New Mission

Now we are embarked on another mission; a "mission energitrice" unlike the previous "mission civilisatrice." This mission will require the enlightenment of those who live in darkness throughout the world. 

Charity, as my mother used to say, begins at home, and we have much to do to bring about a supportive and enabling infrastructure whereby all Americans can be educated and benefit from the rich rewards of science and technology and the equitable distribution of our natural endowments.

Exponential Disruption and the World

America, as exhibited on January 6th, has a childlike-tendency to isolate and to retreat into an anti-intellectual and cartoonish cult of distopia;

which leaves us like the caveman in cold and darkness;

This caveman-like, intellectual retreat comes with an enormous opportunity cost to the U.S. as well as the rest of the world;

The American Cult of Stupidity soon denigrates into a self-perpetuating idolatry of false gods;

of self-interest, incompetent investment;

a towering superficiality;

which disregards its past;

its common sense;

its beliefs;

its inspirations;

its science;

its art;

and its future and returns to violence, barbarism, drugs, lawlessness and murder;

diversion;

stupidity, depression;

and;

murder;

But;

Next; The Solution