Sustt: Energy transition, gas flaring, pumping heat, plant pandemics, peak electricity
Is the UK’s new net-zero strategy likely to face further legal challenges?
What’s happening? Emissions from a new single North Sea oil and gas field could be enough to exceed the UK’s carbon budgets from its operations alone, according to research by campaign group Uplift. The Rosebank field has the potential to produce 500 million barrels of oil, making it the largest undeveloped oil field in the North Sea. The analysis found emissions from Rosebank’s operations could reach 5.6 million tonnes of CO2, this figure does not count the emissions from burning the oil and gas Rosebank will produce. (The Guardian)
Why does this matter? When added to the emissions from the operations of existing oil and gas fields the 5.6 million tonnes of CO2 from Rosebank would be enough to exceed the UK’s total carbon budget from 2028. This means that if the Rosebank field went ahead, other sectors of the economy would have to accelerate their emissions reductions to allow the UK to stay within its carbon budget.
Legality of UK’s climate strategy – In July 2022, a High Court ruling?found?that the UK government’s climate strategy breaches the Climate Change Act. The court case revealed that the government’s net zero strategy would not meet the sixth carbon budget for 2033-2037. The ruling gave the government the deadline of 31 March 2023 to update its climate strategy.
UK government responds – On 30 March 2023, the government?published?a range of climate and energy documents on its so called “green day”. With its new net-zero strategy, the government is also responding to the global energy crisis and the race for net zero triggered by the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). After President Joe Biden?unveiled?the IRA last year the European Commission launched?its Green Deal Industrial Plan in February 2023.
What does the new package include? The main part of the government’s new climate and energy package is “Powering Up Britain” – this includes an overview of the government’s plans along with the new energy security and net-zero strategies. The package also includes a revised?green finance strategy.
Furthermore, there are new consultations planned on a possible carbon border tax and sustainable aviation fuels, along with a minimum sales target for clean cars and heating systems. The government has previously?committed?to introducing rules requiring at least 10% of UK jet fuel to be made from “sustainable sources” by 2030. The government’s advisory body, the Climate Change Committee has previously?said?that the continued expansion of the aviation industry is incompatible with its 2050 net zero target, even under all scenarios of technological advance.
Is the new strategy still at risk of a legal challenge? The climate policy package?includes?a carbon budget delivery plan which aims to meet the requirements of the High Court ruling, and whilst the plan delivers just 97% of the emissions cuts needed for the UK’s sixth carbon budget, Carbon Brief expects?the risk of further legal challenges is reduced since the High Court ruling does not require the government’s plan to add up to 100% of every budget. The shortfall is roughly equivalent to around 32m tonnes of CO2e over the five years from 2033-2037.
What is said about oil and gas? The Powering Up Britain plan said that the North Sea Transition Authorities’ main objective of maximising offshore oil and gas production in UK waters will remain. In 2022, the UK government announced?plans for regulatory “accelerators” to reduce development time for North Sea oil and gas projects. Earlier this year the government?approved?the Talbot oil and gas field.
Critical responses – Responding to the government’s plans, the Grantham Research Institute?said the lack of a long-term investment plan undermines investor confidence. RenewableUK said the plan does not do enough to attract the investment needed into renewables. Friends of the Earth said the latest plans are dangerously lacking ambition and that the announcements do little to help meet climate goals.
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Stat of the week
750,000 homes could be powered for a year by the gas lost through flaring and venting in the North Sea
The UK is still far from meeting its target to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030, according to a report by the Green Alliance thinktank. While the government’s recent announcement of plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions included methane-suppressing feed for livestock and stopping biodegradable waste going to landfill, the policies are only expected to cut methane output by around 14% compared to 2020 levels by 2030. The thinktank identified a number of measures, including bringing forward the ban on flaring and venting, which could help the country achieve a reduction of more than 40% by 2030.
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Bite-sized insights
What else we're seeing this week ??
?? EU sees 40% increase in heat pump sales – Sales of heat pumps rose globally by 11% YoY in 2022, with EU member states seeing increases of 40%, according to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The strong boost to sales in the EU was largely driven by the bloc’s RePowerEU plan, which is designed to end Russian oil and gas imports later this decade. The plan aims to install 20 million heat pumps across EU member states by 2026, with a further 30 million installed by 2030. Almost half of all European heat pump sales were in France, Germany and Italy.
?? Plant pandemics risk global food security – Armed conflict, climate change and globalisation are enabling plant pandemics to spread, threatening food security, according to a study. The researchers called for greater international collaboration in genetic surveillance of crop species to counter the threat from the wheat blast fungus, which was identified in Brazil in 1985 and has since spread to Bangladesh, Zambia and now China and India. In Bangladesh, 16% of crops have been infected with a mortality rate of up to 100%. The study found the fungus was of the same genetic lineage as that previously found in South America, although its source had not been identified. The researchers urged the international community to use the same methods of genetic monitoring as used to track the spread and mutations of Covid-19.
?? Electricity sector emissions peaked in 2022: study – Carbon emissions from the global electricity sector may have peaked in 2022, according to Ember, a US energy think tank, due to the fact that last year saw wind and solar make up 12% of electricity generation, compared to 10% in 2021. However, overall there was a 1.3% increase in electricity emissions in 2022 due to increased coal use to meet increased demand following the end of Covid-19 lockdowns. The study is based on data from 78 countries that cover 93% of global electricity demand. The think tank claim that 2023 may mark a historic turning point in the transition to renewable energy. However, other analysts argue that it will take another two years for the long-term trend in falling emissions to become clear.
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