Sustaining Planet Earth: Humanity's Vital Role in Climate Change.

Billions of years ago, a dazzling surge of light and energy initiated a sequence of events, birthing the universe and our precious planet Earth. The creation of Earth, requiring precise conditions like pressure, temperature, chemical composition, and celestial positioning, gave birth to life as we know it. Despite our continuous exploration, no other planet capable of sustaining human life has been discovered. We are the fortunate inhabitants of a planet that nurtures life, and we must preserve and nourish this gift for future generations.

The World Meteorological Organization recently confirmed that 2023 has been the hottest year in human history. Berkeley Earth, an American research group, predicts a more than 90% chance of the 2023 average temperature exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. No country is left unaffected by this phenomenon. Witnessing strange environmental disasters such as flash flooding, wildfires, and severe storms occurring in unusual times and places, we cannot ignore the stress our environment is facing. We can debate whether these phenomena are related to climate change or accept that our environment is undergoing tremendous pressure. We can even draw parallels from Fermi’s paradox to climate change, suggesting that humans might be affecting the environment with limited to no action to mitigate it. So, how do we safeguard Earth from more environmental disasters and allow life to continue to thrive?

More People, More Resources

The global population stands at approximately 8 billion today and is projected to reach 10 billion by 2100. This surge in population demands more food, energy, clean water and air, and other resources. However, due to the finite nature of Earth's resources, it is essential to meet the rising demands on natural resources without further straining our environment.

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As we consume Earth's resources, we emit greenhouse gases (GHG) like Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Nitrogen Oxides (NOX), and Methane (CH4) into the atmosphere. These gases create a blanket over the Earth, trapping heat and leading to global warming, causing unusual climate activities. Every degree increase in temperature impacts humanity significantly, from natural disasters like flash floods to torrential rains, submerged land, and crop destruction.

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These GHGs are predominantly emitted from using fossil fuels, including coal, natural gas, and petroleum products. The world currently emits 51 billion tons of GHG into the atmosphere annually, and according to the environmental experts, the goal is to reduce or fully eliminate these emissions to avoid global warming.?

Paris Agreement and COP28.

The landmark 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to limit the global average temperature rise to well below 2°C (3.6 Degree Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, with an effort to keep it below 1.5°C (2.7 Degree Fahrenheit). Initially supported by only one country (Bhutan), today more than 100 countries that contribute 80% of GHG emissions endorse these temperature targets.

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On November 30th, 2023, world leaders convened at the 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) in Dubai, showing a collective commitment to transition away from fossil fuels. This is a bold move and although the wording is a bit vague and deliberately loose, from my perspective, it is a step in the right direction. Ironically, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that fossil fuel subsidies continued to surge last year despite all these talks.

Net Zero and Technology Trends.

Achieving Net Zero emissions is crucial to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature limit. This means the total GHG emitted must be offset by an equivalent amount removed. However, this monumental task faces potential anti-climate change backlash due to its associated costs and impact on our current way of living.

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The world cannot simply switch off fossil fuels, as doing so would result in devastating economic, political, and social consequences for our society. Furthermore, the green technologies necessary to reduce GHG emissions are not yet fully developed. Emerging technologies such as direct carbon capture (DAC) and sequestration, green hydrogen, renewable energy sources like solar and wind power, battery storage, as well as nuclear fusion and fission, are potential solutions for addressing climate concerns. Solar geoengineering, a concept involving deliberate intervention in Earth's climate by introducing specific particles to reflect light and cool the planet, is also beginning to take shape.

The New Carbon Economy.

Although many pollutants cause GHGs, the two main culprits are CO2 and Methane. When it comes to CO2, which is primarily generated through the burning of fossil fuels, approximately one-fifth of the CO2 emitted today will remain in the atmosphere for 10,000 years. Out of the 51 billion tons of GHGs emitted annually, approximately 37 billion tons come from CO2 alone. The three biggest contributors to CO2 creation are energy production using fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil), transportation (gasoline and diesel), and industrial production (cement and steel).

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Beyond switching from coal to gas, generating green Hydrogen and utilizing renewable energy to reduce CO2 emissions, technologies like DAC will further help reduce CO2 concentrations. DAC consists of large banks of fans that pull air from the atmosphere and extract CO2 through a chemical engineering process before storing it underground in caves.

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Two leading companies operate in the DAC sector: Carbon Engineering, a Canadian startup recently acquired by Occidental Petroleum for $1.1 billion, and Climeworks, a Swiss startup that attracted $650 million in equity investment. BlackRock, an investor, injected $550 million into Occidental’s development of a 500,000-ton DAC plant in Texas. In the initial stages, the cost to remove 1 ton of CO2 was $1,000. At this price, removing a gigaton of CO2 would cost a trillion dollars, which is not practical or feasible. However, the sweet spot for this technology is around $100 per ton of CO2 removal, making a gigaton removal still a staggering $100 billion in cost.

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China, which emits more CO2 in total than any other country and contributes a quarter of the world's GHG each year, is rapidly transitioning to renewable energy and nuclear power. China has added 750 GW of wind and solar energy, accounting for one-third of the world’s total. In the past decade, China has built 37 nuclear plants and now operates a total of 55, with 22 new plants under construction. In comparison, there are 93 nuclear plants in the USA. Countries like India and China will continue using fossil fuels like coal to support their fast-growing economies. However, they are at the forefront of addressing climate change due to its significant impact on their societies.

Managing Methane – The Potent GHG.

Methane serves as the primary component in natural gas and is a more potent GHG than CO2 in the short term, though it remains in the atmosphere for a much shorter period than CO2. Pound for pound, methane is estimated to be about 80 times more effective at trapping heat than CO2.

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Thirty percent of methane emissions stem from natural sources (landfills, cow burps, wetlands), while seventy percent is man-made (gas leaks, coal seams, and flaring). Preventing methane emissions has the biggest impact on reducing GHG and we have technologies and programs to tackle these emissions and leaks. In 1971, Norway prohibited the flaring or burning of excess natural gas, effectively curbing methane emissions and preventing the generation of additional CO2 through the burning of excess gas. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that if all nations adopt Norway’s regulations, methane emissions from oil and gas would decline by 90%. The recently held COP28 session intensified efforts to significantly reduce methane emissions.

Regulations that Worked.

Many environmental regulations seem bureaucratic and unfeasible. However, the American Clean Air Act established in 1970 stands as a landmark comprehensive law controlling air pollution in the United States. This law has significantly reduced levels of nitrogen dioxide emissions by 56%, carbon monoxide by 77%, and sulfur dioxide by 88%. This demonstrates the positive impact of regulations on the environment and society.

Summary

The Economist magazine is famous for its witty cartoons, and in a recent one, on the left-hand side, there was a lion representing political leaders roaring about climate change, while on the right-hand side, a dozen cats representing various stakeholders were meowing about the same topic. This effectively captures the current state of the discourse on climate change within our society.

The world is not ready to make a dramatic shift from hydrocarbons to a no-carbon economy. Significant economic, social, technological, and political challenges hinder a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. Nonetheless, the transition must accelerate while aiming to keep the temperature rise well below the targeted 2°C (1.5°C preferred). Studies indicate that achieving the 1.5°C goal may cost around 5% to 8% of world GDP, equating to roughly $5 trillion. The question remains: who will bear this cost? Given the current rate of GHG emissions, estimates from various sources suggest that Net Zero might not be achieved even by the end of the century.

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The challenges posed by climate change are immense, but there are steps we can take immediately to address them in a way that is acceptable to many stakeholders. Firstly, there is a need for global acknowledgment of the seriousness of climate change, supported by scientific evidence, engaging world leaders at all levels to tackle these challenges. Instead of attempting to coerce reluctant individuals, engaging them in discussions can help avoid potential backlash against pro-climate policies. The political spectrum, both right and left, must unite to find solutions to this problem.

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Secondly, an effective partnership between governments and private enterprises is crucial to invest in technologies and R&D to reduce GHG emissions. Governments can establish a central marketplace for efficient carbon credit trading, thereby establishing a price on carbon, providing a carrot-and-stick approach to yield results. Lastly, strategic regulations paired with incentive programs will facilitate a swift shift toward cleaner energy sources. Addressing easily implementable ideas such as reducing methane emissions, the most potent greenhouse gas, is imperative.

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I remain optimistic, believing in the human race's ingenuity to create a bright future. Nature is forgiving, but let's not test its limits. Individuals can contribute by conserving vital resources and supporting environmentally friendly policies. Let's leave this planet nourished, clean, and inviting for the generations to come.

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Note: This article aims to simplify the concepts surrounding global warming and climate change while highlighting their significance. Throughout my career, I have navigated diverse energy and industrial sectors - including nuclear, coal, natural gas, biofuels, environmental solutions, municipal and industrial water, and renewables. Living and working in developing countries, I have witnessed the impact of pollution on societies. Energy transition and environmental solutions hold personal significance for me, influenced by my professional journey and life experiences. I believe the world urgently needs to accelerate its thinking and programs to mitigate environmental risks.