Sustainability’s Boiling Frog: 9 Positive Shifts You Cannot Ignore!

The climate and sustainability backstory suffers from too many ‘why change’ storylines. The burning platform is so clear yet so confusing. It is so holistic, systemic, challenging, and potentially so life-changing that new labels of ‘poly crisis ’ and ‘planetary crisis ’ are difficult to accept or even comprehend.

As part of this ‘Journey to Regenerative’ series , I have spent the last few months delving more broadly any deeply to better understand the current landscape. I hypothesise that whilst we were a?boiling frog to climate change , biodiversity and habitat loss, in many ways we are also a ‘cooling frog’ — slow to recognise the positive momentum that fight back in the other direction.

Change theory teaches that technological and behavioural change (e.g.?EV car uptake ) tends to happen along an ‘s-curve’ or?logistic function . It is slow to start, often takes a step backwards, follows a gradual uptake, builds momentum, accelerates with disruptive diffusion of growth and change, before stabilisation. This has widespread use in ecology and population dynamics, diffusion of ideas, technology adoption, market penetration, growth of political movements and many other areas.

During many workshops, I still hear understtandable scepticism that “nothing has changed” with a deep emphasis on nothing at all.

So is momentum building? Where might we be overall on the Sustainability and climate S-curve (awareness, change and adoption)? Does anyone have a big picture view?

Below I outlay a collection of recent (mostly climate) examples, which I believe are individually?important, but collectively?significant.

1.?Multilateral Agreements

With the 2015 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) rallying 193 country signatories, and Paris Agreement’s 196 signatories, we start to see powerful signs of global systems working better together across country boundaries, for the benefit of the human race.

The preceding UN Millennium Development Goals (2000–2015) largely reached the voluntary/3rd sector. Today the SDGs social and environmental factors filtrate across the public and private spectrum, through business, education, government, policy, curriculum and research centres (see?Glasgow Caledonian University ?and their purpose ‘for the common good’).

Whilst frustrating there have been 27! climate CoPs, it cannot be denied progress is being made. Cop 26 and 27 saw big?shifts never seen before .….

• Acceptance of Adaptatoion
• Private money flows
• Most vulnerable. Loss and damage fund
• Commitment to the 1.5 limit
• Focus on Fossil Fuels and emissions
• World Bank Reform
• Acknowledging Tipping Points

Organisations, such as?Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) consolidating data from 3,000+ scientific reports, have ignited a whole industry of research, think tanks, and transparency empowering countless spinout movements driving understanding and action.?Climate Fresk ?now celebrates gamified workshops delivered close to 1 Million participants. This traction would never have happened just a few years ago.

2.?Transparency and Greenwashing

Justified concerns erupted over the Coca Cola / AG Brr ‘corporate takeover‘ ’of CoP27 as sponsors, and a?furious backlash? as Abu Dhabi Cop28 appoints ‘Oil Chief’ as president. Widespread anger manifests at the sheer number of fossil fuel lobbyists (25% increase to 663 at CoP27 Egypt,?out numbering delegation of any country ).

In the past, ‘do-good-washing’ was an easy win for corporates to sweep planetary harm and political influence under the carpet. Systems were designed to maximise shareholder profit, economists did not factor carrying capacity or the draw-down of planetary capital, with disregard and lack of awareness for broader planetary systems. However, the tide is clearly changing. This is now being audited, accounted for, publicised with transparency and different forces from across society are demanding change, lobbying back, and holding individuals and organisations accountable.

The further rise in global litigation against greenwashing shows us that specifity of detail also matters. Examples:

• HSBC misleads consumers with greenwashing adverts, Advertising Standards ?(telegraph)
• H&M case breaks brands promise ?(Forbes) and?H&M Sued
• UK Competitor Markets Authority (CMA) ?investigate ASOS, Bohoo, Asda

The cherished godchild of capitalism, Coca Cola, was publicly decried as the world’s top polluter by Greenpeace for “producing 120bn throwaway plastic bottles a year, with 99% of plastics made from fossil fuels”, whilst named top plastic polluter 4 years in a row in global?Break Free From Plastic brand audits . A?240,000 signed petition ?against the Cop27 sponsorship helped make this a debate the company can no longer ignore.

It is no longer good enough to highlight the actions organisations are taking to do good, but to be honest and accountable for the actions you are taking to do less bad.

But at the same time its no longer enough to show you are just doing less bad, but to show that you are making sincere effort to do ‘net good’.

3.?Thought Leaders from Across Disciplines

Climate science is becoming the new computer science. ‘Climate Tech’ seen as recession proof ?(Bloomberg) and?the fastest growing vertical? (Seeders).

With a?boom in jobs and a shortfall in skills in the marketplace ?(WEF), young people are increasingly choosing to harness their energy, creativity and innovation to solve societal challenges. A trend set to continue.

Aside traditional pools of climate science, thought leaders from across ‘Tech’ and ‘Change’ are starting to shift their expertise, combined with passion for the planet, towards this critical agenda.

1. John Doerr?a USA venture capitalist that backed entrepreneurs Page, Brin and Bezos and author of?Measure What Matters?launches the?Standord Doerr School of sustainability, ?donating $1.1billion (Stanfords first new school in 70 years!). His new book is?Speed & Scale: An Action Plan for Solving Our Climate Crisis Now
2. Frederic Laloux?author of Reinventing Organisations has launched,?The Week? a group experience to help us see what’s coming with Climate Change, and what we can do about it.
3. SEACOM ?and SEACON?conference founder Barry Chandler in the field of Enterprise Agility has launched Non-profit?OurTechLegacy ?on a mission to work with industry to be free of carbon emissions from all technology as soon as possible.

As humans we increasingly call upon our natural pursuit of ‘purpose’ and this inevitably leads us outside the domain of our own silos and to more holistic planetary systems. No longer do societal, business and planetary systems work under the illusion of being separate. A multidisciplinary approach is forming. I am seeing design, art, science, and engineering come together more to drive change, and we need more of it.

4.?Carbon Driving Broader Sustainability

The data-transparency and growing awareness of Climate Change (the literal ‘burning’ platform for change) has helped focus on much broader sustainability issues; resource depletion, circularity, social equality, and regenerative systems for example.

Is this the perfect storm? Can carbon be a catalyst for a much broader deeper transformation that we so badly need?

Did you know that since 2018 the annual ‘circularity gap report’ ?has been published? The?2023 report ?highlights only 7.2% of the world today is circular (‘reduce, reuse, recycle’), with 92.8% as linear and wasteful (‘take-make-waste’). Alarmingly we are going backwards (9.1% circular in 2018), but the climate drive has bought it sharper into focus and the transparency places it?closer to the heart of the conversation ?and action we now expect.

According to the World Bank there are?68 direct carbon pricing instruments operating as of June 2022 in 46 national jurisdictions ?around the world.

Whilst climate and carbon has been driving the conversation, at Cop15 on Biodiversity 2022?almost 200 countries agreed to protect a third of the planet for nature by 2030 , through a new Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). There are many other examples to the movement, such as the 37 Financial Institutions representing $47Billion assets have signed up to?FinanceForBiodiveristy ?one of many industry movements for biodiversity.

5.?Indigenous voices

Remember those passionate voices shunned as ‘hippy’, ‘in the clouds’ and ‘tree huggers’, up to less than 5 years ago. The ones that advocated for nature, soil health, forestry, regeneration and the rights of indigenous peoples? Suddenly we see this expertise called more and more to the table and will continue to take a lead on these vital issues.

In the U.S. the?‘White House Commits to Elevating Indigenous Knowledge in Federal Policy Decisions’ ?as local policy makers face into years of neglect;‘California Seeks Native American Help After Years of Environmental Abuse’ .

CoP27 saw the highest participation of Indigenous peoples (300+ delegates), indigenous rights were mainstreamed across all agenda items, and?$1.7 billion ?pledged to support Indigenous land rights recognising their historic success in environmental stewardship, key to slow down deforestation. The ‘Loss and Damage Fund’ was a warmly celebrated step towards Indigenous communities already impacted by climate change.

Big 4 consultancies now collaborate in the area, such as Deloite with World Economic Forum’s?Embedding Indigenous knowledge in the conservation and restoration of landscapes ?report.

Equity in planet earth is on the table.

6.?Anti-lobbying & ESG Tracking

British Think Tank?InfluenceMap?ranked Chevron, ExxonMobile and BASF as the most ‘negative and influential’ as captured in the?excellent summary by CorporateKnights? highlighting 85% of the 25 companies deemed to have most negative policy footprints look good on paper. Just one of many movements calling out that ESG (Investor frameworks to limit ‘outside in’ risks to a company — in favour of shareholder profit) is?not?Sustainability!

The industry is highlighting how important it is to look beyond a company’s outward claims and put more scrutiny on the inner convictions, evidence by the research they fund, sponsorships they place, how they engage with regulators, and direct and indirect lobbying that takes place. Referred to as ‘Carbon Policy Footprint’ another type of scope 4 emission.

Whilst ESG may have helped bring environmental, social and governance into the mainstream view of economics. The likes of ISSB, CSRD and GRI reporting standards have been criticised for a plethora of weaknesses in tackling sustainability:

• ‘Outside in’ looking at the outside worlds risk to the company (profit protection for shareholders)
• Failing to apply sustainability thresholds or science based targets
• Non context-based assessment considerations

However, systems are evolving. The UN Sustainable Development Performance Indicators (SDPI ), pushes the boundaries from ESG to authentic science based, contextual sustainability measures. Genuine Sustainability is on the agenda.

Where ESG Taxonomies of the past failed under poor political will (1 in 3 activities labelled green in EU taxonomy said to be bad for the planet ) new taxonomies are launched such as the ISBT with the protection of the planet in mind.

7.?Finance and?Investment Revolution

As all good crime dramas taught us wisely ‘Follow the money’.

With Climate tech booming investors are becoming increasingly educated around the issues and investment and pensions funds have radically updated their portfolios to support this growing movement.

Data from the?Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing ?is one of many highlighting climate change as a?top focus for investors, especially Millennials .

The global Green Bonds market is?projected to reach a $1 trillion milestone? by in 2023.

At the same time the world’s largest investment fund?warns directors to tackle climate crisis or face the sack , influencing 83% of the 9,000 invested companies to adopt science based net zero targets. The tied is surely changing. How far will it reach?

The investment industry is shifting from all angles. BNP Paribas has put together a?global standard of responsible climate lobbying , made up of 14 indicators to assess how consistent lobbying activity is against Paris agreement targets. The investment industry goes broad and deep.

See also point 9. on governments competing for green investments.

8.?Advocacy and Protest

Whilst the long-lived impact of movements such as No Oil, and Extinction Rebellion can be debated, such high attention stunts spark and ignite a broader focus just like any successful movement of the past (Apartheid, Suffragettes, Blacklives Matter).

Greta Thunberg has undeniably bought awareness to the cause, and a younger more dynamic generation to the movement. More than this, she has managed to make climate a top-tier voting issue in 7 out of 20 largest emitting regions in the world. Citizens are finding their voice —?Activists in finland sue their own government over cliamte innaction.

In January 2023 a small activist group, Mighty Earth,?filed a whistleblower complaint ?against JBS the world’s largest meat company for marketing $3.2Billion sustainability linked bonds alleging false net zero emission claims. Bloomberg claims a?Class-Action Wave Is Coming for ESG .

In February?Client Earth filed a lawsuit against Shell PLC ?Board of Directors alleging breach of duties against the Paris Agreement gaining unprecedented support of institutional investors with 12 million shares and ￡450 billion total assets under management. The Power balance is shifting.

Noticeably it is not just oil companies. Previously thousands of amazon employees petitioned Jeff Besoz until Amazon announced net-zero aims by 2040. Now?employees are asking Amazon to support climate reparations ?for the damage emissions are already causing. Protests go deeper and deeper.

9.?Government Action

This growing movement from stakeholders from all sides means that Governments too are no longer allowed to ‘greenwash’ their own policies. The UK were quick in?calling out ‘Hypocrisy’ ?to former Prime minister Boris Johnson’s multiple moves.

Increasingly regulatory lines in the sand help nudge industries to innovate and societies to evolve.

1. The Gambia?bans plastic bags 2015
2. India bans single use plastics in 2022
3. British gas boilers to be banned or phased out?between 2025 and 2030
4. EU ban on sale of?petrol and diesel cars by 2035
5. French €100,000+ fines ?for not evidencing carbon neutrality claims
6. Singapore?Greenhouse Gas Emission Tax raising ?from $5 to $25 per tonne by 2024, and $45 per tonne in 2026 and beyond.

When a legislative line is drawn with a date in the future, industries rally to invest and innovate to meet the change. There are over?3116 climate laws and policies ?tracked by LSE CCLW data.

CBAM ?is a policy which imposes tax on imports into the European Union based on their carbon footprint. Designed to deter high polluters from moving production to countries without advanced carbon reduction mechanisms, and as a tax windfall will inevitably ignite other countries to follow. Gaps are being closed from every direction.

Singapore is warmly awaiting their annual budget expected to provide investment on a more modern discretionary cash pay-out that encourages green investments and behaviours across core foundational industries. Many other Asia-pacific countries are eagerly anticipating this vision, and are likely to follow suit.

Whilst still having a long way to go, China is in fact the largest producer of renewable energy, and?have made extensive investments . We also cannot ignore large volumes of co2 from China’s production are actually from the global west’s consumption, and if accounted for correctly forms part of our own scope 3 emissions.

In competitive response to China’s investment president Joe Biden was able to unite US politics to sign into law?$370 billion in subsidies for solar and wind energy development, electric vehicles, the biggest clean energy investment in U.S. history. In response against ‘unfair competitive advantage’, the EU updated their EU Green Deal with a further?$270 billion in response to US green subsidies .

For decades we have shunned governments for competitively subsidising industries that are not good for the environment. How ironic this is shifting to healthy competition between major economies recognising that the future is green and sustainable and do not want to be left behind.

Conclusion

Forces are undeniably coming together and driving significant change.

There could be so many more examples to give, but where are we on the S-curve of awareness, vs the s-curve of change and adoption? The biggest trend I see, is within significant ‘forming of foundational forces’, the huge collective transparency, and the pressure and accountabilitty for businesses to radically transform. I would love to think early adoptors are radically accelerting and a?‘chasm’ is about to be crossed .

Three terms I will talk more about on the ‘Journey to Regenerative’… I believe these actions are increasingly ‘efficient’, and have become highly ‘effective’, but compared against the dire needs of our planet, the jury is out if they are ‘sufficient’.

Sustainability is a huge force that touches all aspects of our lives. If you are an individual or organisation with an interest, find a set of ears that will listen. Where you can, then lead, elsewehere follow the ‘lone nuts ’ and in doing so lead by helping to turn them into leaders. Most followers don’t follow leaders, these followers follow other followers. This is the only way we will significantly conquer the s-curve. Wherever you are many would now argue that you owe it to yourself, your family, and your future generations to start taking action now.

We are the first generation to feel the impact of climate change, and the last generation that can do something about it — Barrack Obama

Potential next posts… ESG is not Sustainability and Lessons from Leading Transformation.

Thank you for reading and listening with curiosity! I would love to hear your own thoughts.

Paul