Sustainability strategy: Highlights from Zambia's $10bn Green Growth Strategy

The Government Republic of Zambia (GRZ) recently launched its National Green Growth Strategy (GGS) and will invest an estimated $10billion to implement this strategy by 2030.

This week’s article shares highlights from this strategy which is aimed at Zambia attaining its Green Growth Vision of “A low-carbon, resource efficient, resilient, and socially inclusive economy by 2030.”

According to the Minister of Green Economy and Environment, Hon. Eng. Collins Nzovu, the GGS has been formulated to promote development pathways that lead to Zambia’s transition to a low-carbon, resource efficient, resilient and socially inclusive economy by 2030. Implementation of the GGS will accelerate the attainment of the aspirations of Zambia’s Vison 2030 and the Eighth National Development Plan (8NDP), and the commitments made in Zambia’s NDC to the Paris Agreement and National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan. Additionally, execution of the interventions in the GGS will present Zambia with additional opportunities for creation of green jobs and will increase resilience to shocks and enable the country to seize the business opportunities from new and emerging markets, both nationally and internationally.

Key definitions of the GGS

Before we delve into the highlights of the GGS, lets define some of the key terms:

• Green Economy: ???? ?????????????? ??????? ?????????????? ???? ???????????????? ????????? ????????-?????????? ?????? ???????????? ????????????, ????????? ?????????????????????????? ???????????????? ?????????????????????????? ?????????? ?????? ???????????????????? ????????????????????.
• Green growth: ??????????? ??????? ?????????????? ??????? ?????????????? ???????????? ???????????????? ???? ?????????????? ????? ?????????????????? ?????? ?????????????????????????? ???????????????? ???? ???????? ????????? ????????-?????????? ????????????. The Zambian context definition of green growth is, “a model of development that promotes low carbon and resilient economic growth, social inclusion and human well-being, and efficient use of resources.”
• Greenhouse gases: ?????????? ??????? ???????? ??????? ???? ????? ?????????'?? ??????????????????? ?????? ???????????????????? ???? ???????????? ?????????????? ?????? ?????????????? ???????????.
• Natural Capital: ???????????? ??????? ?????????? ???? ???????????? ?????? ??????? ?????????????? ?????????????????????????? ?????????????????? ???? ????????????????.

Highlights: What is the Government Republic of Zambia doing about sustainability?

According to the GGS document, Zambia is spearheading the sustainability agenda through these avenues:

• The National Constitution (Amendment Act No. 2 of 2016) provides for and promotes ecologically sustainable development through the protection, conservation and sustainable utilisation of natural resources and forbids wastefulness, among others.
• Zambia’s Vision 2030, emphasises development that is anchored on sustainable environment, ecosystems and natural resource management principles.
• The Eighth National Development Plan (8NDP) has a pillar dedicated primarily to efforts aimed at promoting environmental sustainability.
• Zambia ratified the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and submitted the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) with commitment to achieve an estimated total GHG emission reduction of 38,000GgCO2eq which translates to 47 percent (with substantial international support) compared to 20,000GgCO2eq which translates to 25 percent (under domestic efforts with limited international support) against 2010 as a base year.

Highlights: What have been the climate change impacts on Zambia?

Climate change is defined as ?????? ????????-???????? ???????????? ???? ?????????????? ???????????????? ?????? ???????????????????????? ?????? ???? ?????????? ????????????????????, ?????????????????? ?????? ???????????????? ???? ???????????????????? ??????????.

According to the GGS document, climate change has become a major threat to sustainable development in Zambia as evidenced by the following:

• Mean annual temperatures that have increased by 1.3 degrees celsius.
• Mean annual precipitation has been decreasing at an average rate of 1.9mm per month since 1960.
• The impacts of climate change, such as floods and droughts, over the last 30 years, are estimated to have cost the Zambian economy US$13.8 billion in GDP losses.

Zambia's emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is insignificant when compared to other countries (0.19% share of global emissions) but according to the GGS document, the country's GHG emissions rose by 47% to 126,758 Gg CO2eq in 2016 from 86,063 Gg CO2eq in 1994.

?? See below for the Zambia's GHG emissions by sector.

Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) account for 93 % of the total GHG emissions and this is primarily due to the following:

1. Land conversion through expansion of cropland and grassland.
2. Unsustainable agricultural practices and activities such as deforestation, poor pasture and livestock manure management, burning of vegetation for fertilisation, and the use of inorganic fertilisers.

Deforestation and forest degradation is the highest contributor to GHG emissions in Zambia and is the main driver of the increasing GHG emissions under the AFOLU sector as depicted in the table above.

Highlights: What is the path to achieving Zambia's Green Growth Vision?

Zambia’s Green Growth Vision is, “A low-carbon, resource efficient, resilient, and socially inclusive economy by 2030.”        

The five pillars contributing to the attainment of the Green Growth Vision for Zambia are:

1. Resilient and climate compatible growth
2. Enhanced resource efficiency
3. Enhanced natural capital
4. Improved inclusivity
5. Enabling environment for greening growth

?? See below for the path to achieving Zambia's Green Growth Vision

Highlights: How does the Green Growth trajectory compare to a business-as-usual trajectory?

In formulating the GGS, a scenario analysis was done to compare a green growth trajectory to a business-as-usual trajectory. Assuming two scenarios, GG1 with reasonable ambition and GG2 with very high ambition, results indicated that higher ambition means higher economic growth. See below for the results of the scenario analysis.

According to the GGS, Zambia’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an average of 5.3 percent per annum between 2005 and 2022 which was below the Vision 2030 target to attain and sustain an annual real GDP growth rate of between 6 and 10 percent.

Based on the growth projections above i.e. the average economic growth rate per scenario and decade, the Vision 2030 target of between 6 and 10 percent is not expected to be achieved considering that under the highest GGS ambitions i.e. GG2, we will only achieve a projected 5.6 percent between 2024 and 2030.

Do we need much higher GGS ambitions to ensure that we achieve an economic growth rate of at least 6 percent?         

Highlights: What is the expected cost to implement the National Green Growth Strategy by 2030?

According to the Minister of Green Economy and Environment, the "implementation of the GGS will require the support and concerted efforts of all stakeholders. In this vein, emphasis will be placed on collaboration between the public and private sector, cooperating partners, civil society organisations, the academia and indeed all Zambians in the execution of the GGS."

The implementation of the GGS will require an estimated $10.4 billion between 2024 and 2030. These 4 strategy outcomes of the GGS account for 94% ($9.8 billion) of the total budgeted implementation cost:

1. Increased deployment and adoption of renewable energy technologies ($3.8bn) i) Develop financing and resource mobilisation instruments, including de-risking facilities to catalyse deployment of renewable energy ii) Increase the share of other sources of renewable energy in the power generation mix; iii) Implement policies and incentives to promote the deployment and increased access to affordable and reliable renewable energy technologies; iv) Promote the use of alternatives to fossil fuels; and v) Promote the Productive Use of Energy (PUE).
2. Increased access to basic services ($3.8bn) i) Increase access to water supply and sanitation services ii) Increase access to electricity in rural areas iii) Reduce the incidence of climate sensitive diseases.
3. Enhanced resilience in the agriculture sector ($1.1bn) i) Promote the use of climate smart technologies and practices in crops, fisheries and livestock; ii) Enhance the development of resilient irrigation infrastructure; iii) Strengthen research and development; and iv) Promote the use of agricultural insurance by small-scale farmers.
4. Enhanced sustainable mobility ($1.1bn) i) Develop public private partnerships for the creation of rapid transit systems in major cities; ii) Create an enabling environment for the rollout of e-mobility; and iii) Provide infrastructure to promote non-motorised transportation and eco-mobility transportation systems.